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Saturday, March 3, 2012

SPY - Equal Time and Price Boxes

Equal time and price boxes show that the rally from October 2011 to the end of February 2012 is the same size as the rally from August 2010 to February 2011.  The equal time measurement in the box is also interesting.

According to time cycles, several important dates +/- 1 day to watch during the month are:

March 7th low
March 13th high
March 20th low

Green arrows mark exact geometry. The orange line is a downside target for the month of March, and is around 1307 SPX March 20th.

Daily Chart
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12 comments:

  1. Trading SunsetMarch 3, 2012 at 5:29 PM

    hi
    1307...hmm, that would frustrate many of the bears out there. A mere 4% pullback, before another wave higher...urgh.

    The time aspect of the boxes is something I've never looked at myself. Looks pretty good.

    Would you be one of those looking for 1400 or so, within a few months?

    ReplyDelete
  2. SCMarch 3, 2012 at 9:14 PM

    That is just an initial downside target for March. Overall my outlook for 2012 is quite bearish.

    I have the charts coming to show how and when, and why.

    ReplyDelete
  3. SCMarch 3, 2012 at 9:23 PM

    The moves to the downside are going to be larger than I thought. This is because the rally has carried on longer and higher than anticipated.

    That means that it falls farther this year than I realized.

    ReplyDelete
  4. RBMarch 4, 2012 at 12:57 AM

    Hi SC,

    Is silver going to down while SPY going lower?
    I mean what should we expect for silver and gold when spy goes down in your cycle?
    What type of correlation has SPY with Gold - Silver?

    Thanks in advance.
    RB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 4, 2012 at 7:10 AM

      I'll have Gold/Silver charts today showing what my large scale pattern indicates next.

      Delete
    2. RBMarch 4, 2012 at 7:42 AM

      Thank you so much.
      I will look forward to see your charts.

      Tnx again.
      RB

      Delete
  5. JGMarch 4, 2012 at 11:29 AM

    Hi SC,
    Is your intention then to exit your TVIX trade on the 7th and perhaps go XIV till around the 13th? What would your SPX target be for the 7th?
    TIA

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 4, 2012 at 11:54 AM

      Yes, that is what I generally plan. 1340 SPX or so roughly, but I am going to review this in further detail.

      Delete
    2. JGMarch 4, 2012 at 12:00 PM

      Thanks. Do you have a TVIX target then or will you use SPX as a gauge to exit?

      Delete
    3. SCMarch 4, 2012 at 1:37 PM

      For UVXY I'm eyeing $6.30-40. TVIX is tougher to pin down in advance due to the premium issues etc... I'll have to make that call in real time, but potentially $18's looks possible.

      Delete
  6. meteoMarch 4, 2012 at 1:15 PM

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-01/israel-to-begin-investing-reserves-in-u-s-equities-today-1-.html

    ReplyDelete
  7. DolemiteMarch 5, 2012 at 5:10 AM

    Here is another instance of SPY price time squareing
    Made this chart this morning

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/820/snppriceandtimesquare.png/

    Angle from May 2011 High to Oct 4 low on this chart is 51 degrees down.
    Projecting that back up gives us the may 2 2011 high price of 1373.5 on..... Mar 12, the day of the geocentric earth grand trine.....

    also note the large scale rsi divergence through all of Feb

    I think being long volatility will be the play
    Whether we go up or down... we shall know soon

    Thoughts?
    good luck to all!!

    ReplyDelete

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