Pages

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Update

Previous analysis using time cycles outlined March 7th as a potential low +/- 1 day.  The market is into that timing band now.  There could still be potential downside during the next couple of days, but it is likely to be limited.  Several supports rest just below.

The cycle analysis turns positive late this week, and is quite positive next week centered around March 13th.  This may be a lower high with another decline to follow.

60min Chart
Posted by at

24 comments:

  1. AnonymousMarch 7, 2012 at 1:25 AM

    http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/3658/gldwkly.gif

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousMarch 7, 2012 at 1:56 AM

    http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/3318/silvern.gif

    ReplyDelete
  3. RussiaMarch 7, 2012 at 4:56 AM

    SLV can rise to 37 in MAR.?

    ReplyDelete
  4. SantaMarch 7, 2012 at 6:24 AM

    Hi SC

    You plan to get back into UVXY today? or just going to do nothing till the 13th?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  5. SCMarch 7, 2012 at 6:47 AM

    I'm going to let things settle this morning/today then decide. I have some mixed signals for today.

    ReplyDelete
  6. beetlejuiceMarch 7, 2012 at 8:20 AM

    Read a couple of sites now that investors are dumping TVIX in favor of UVXY.
    Not sure if there is any cred to it but UVXY is down twice as much as TVIX this morning.
    Think I will take the opportunity to split. Thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 7, 2012 at 8:44 AM

      It is a tradeoff imo. For short term trading UVXY is moving much better with larger moves. Yet, TVIX has more potential upside (if the premium expands) over longer time periods. Though it is also more speculative.

      Delete
  7. JGMarch 7, 2012 at 8:24 AM

    What do you think SC, is SPX and SLV going to come back down or do we take off from here?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 7, 2012 at 8:30 AM

      Market is bouncing from oversold today, but I think tomorrow or even the morning on March 9th look more probable for a bottom.

      I'm going to wait until later in the day to decide if to make some moves.

      Delete
    2. SCMarch 7, 2012 at 11:32 AM

      Silver is firming up today though it is still not confirmed that we have a bottom yet. It is possible that we undercut the low yesterday this week before a real strong move to the upside.

      Delete
  8. SantaMarch 7, 2012 at 8:27 AM

    guys, SLV is going to explode the rest of the week is my opinion...read a lot of site...most agree...may not reach SC target, but we will bounce for sure...heavy support at 50day mm...which we hit yesterday...


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  9. SantaMarch 7, 2012 at 12:15 PM

    Hi SC

    less than 1 hour left. curious to know what your move maybe? If any, or just sit back and wait till tomorrow?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  10. SCMarch 7, 2012 at 12:21 PM

    I'm eyeing UVXY again since this bounce is looking top heavy to me - have not decided yet. The cycle analysis looks weaker tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  11. SCMarch 7, 2012 at 12:24 PM

    NDX was firming yesterday in the last half of the day. NDX has struggled for the last few hours today.

    ReplyDelete
  12. MikeMarch 7, 2012 at 12:47 PM

    Do you think it's wise at this point to take a big loss on tvix and buy uvxy that's down almost double right now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 7, 2012 at 12:51 PM

      Not sure there is a right or wrong answer. I just bought some UVXY though.

      Delete
    2. MikeMarch 7, 2012 at 12:54 PM

      Thanks. Tough being patient in this trade when I know it's more for day trades. TVIX fell out of support on my screen. With a sterilized QE3 already being talked about, I don't even see this market falling much more. I hope yesterday wasn't the correction.

      Delete
  13. SCMarch 7, 2012 at 1:13 PM

    Apple looks wobbly.

    ReplyDelete
  14. StockboomMarch 7, 2012 at 1:27 PM

    Mr. Arora’s algorithms show that humans will be…humans (some forums call them “sheeple”) and that trend-chasing and mis-timing are not only as alive and well as they were back in 1980, but that they do harm to small retail investors whilst enriching the savvy, professional ones. To wit: “in gold’s run from $1,450 to $1,910, [last September] 70% of the buying was by retail investors. Only 7% of the buying was from institutions. In the subsequent run from $1,600 to $1,760, 85% of the buying was by momentum chasing retail investors, but the ‘smart money’ was a net seller. In the latest run up, 92% of the buying between $1,500 and $1,790 is from mom and pop. Institutions are again net sellers.” Are you starting to see a pattern here?

    ReplyDelete
  15. dj oussMarch 7, 2012 at 2:15 PM

    Hey SC,

    There is a lot of talk about the QE today. What effects will it have on the POS if the Feds goes with it? Does it change your target price?

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  16. SCMarch 7, 2012 at 3:32 PM

    Mainly I like to keep it simple with the cycles and patterns. I'll stick with that $38. We should have confirmation as to a Silver bottom this week.

    ReplyDelete
  17. meteoMarch 8, 2012 at 5:05 AM

    UVXY split 1:6 33,24 ( pre - market 31 - 6% ...) more downside ahead ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 8, 2012 at 5:34 AM

      It'll probably retrace back up today/tomorrow, then head lower next week.

      Delete

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)