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Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Gold - Upside Surprise

Gold has ample support at this level, and downside looks minimal.  On the surface the recent high appears similar to the September and November peaks.  However, this time, Gold can breakout of the channel and surprise on the upside.

The lower fork was tested today, and notice that there is an "air pocket" with little resistance above for Gold. 

Daily Chart
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89 comments:

  1. dj oussMarch 13, 2012 at 10:00 PM

    Hey SC,

    What about silver?

    ReplyDelete
  2. joedMarch 14, 2012 at 1:46 AM

    http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/4434/goldsu.jpg

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. curiousmindMarch 14, 2012 at 7:04 AM

      Do you see gold dipping to the yellow line before rebounding? Is price or time the bigger influencing factor?

      Delete
  3. StockboomMarch 14, 2012 at 5:53 AM

    I think Gold at 1642 have done major chart damage and it is important that gold today close above 1650 for any chance of survive more assault.

    Silver is compare showing more strength...but we all know how fast silver behave...

    ReplyDelete
  4. SCMarch 14, 2012 at 6:08 AM

    There is a cluster of support for Gold, and I think it'll find support in the next few days. What is interesting is that Gold/Silver are trading inversely to SPX. Next week, SPX should decline substantially, and Gold/Silver can continue inversely and rise.

    I'm increasing my Silver target to $39-39.5. Chart is coming.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. StockboomMarch 14, 2012 at 6:10 AM

      SC,

      If silver rise then target could be closer to $ 41..but big question is when.

      Delete
    2. SCMarch 14, 2012 at 6:26 AM

      Silver building a base. Next week should be strong for the metals imo.

      Delete
  5. SCMarch 14, 2012 at 6:34 AM

    Sami,

    We're at the first high, yesterday was strong for SPX as expected. The market should dip for a day or 2 next. Then a slight higher high would be ideal. The target may move slightly up since it pushed so much already. However, it won't be much 5-7 points.

    ReplyDelete
  6. StockboomMarch 14, 2012 at 7:13 AM

    Apple price targeted at $ 720....

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-price-target-upped-to-720-by-morgan-stanley-2012-03-14?link=MW_home_latest_news

    ReplyDelete
  7. AMMarch 14, 2012 at 7:41 AM

    SC, how long have you been trading commodities, gold/silver specifically?

    ReplyDelete
  8. joedMarch 14, 2012 at 8:23 AM

    http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/2421/emini.jpg

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AMMarch 14, 2012 at 8:43 AM

      i think we'll overshoot to the upside. 1425 or so.

      Delete
  9. StockboomMarch 14, 2012 at 9:15 AM

    Silver next hold could be in 31.80 area....like I said it is getting closer for short term bounce, may go long between 31 to 32....as said here earlier...

    ReplyDelete
  10. joedMarch 14, 2012 at 9:34 AM

    http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/7413/silver240.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  11. SamiMarch 14, 2012 at 9:34 AM

    wow apple at 582

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. StockboomMarch 14, 2012 at 9:36 AM

      http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-price-target-upped-to-720-by-morgan-stanley-2012-03-14?link=MW_home_latest_news

      Delete
  12. mickMarch 14, 2012 at 10:17 AM

    silver is gonna tank...

    ReplyDelete
  13. SantaMarch 14, 2012 at 10:26 AM

    silver tank cause the market is doing great...it got inflated price when there was fear before...now just another broken vehicle...ppl rather invest in equipty or something else.

    gold same thing...if we go to 1400+, silver and gold will drop even more I thinking...

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  14. The HookMarch 14, 2012 at 11:05 AM

    silver waterfall decline. anyone long got destroyed.

    ReplyDelete
  15. StockboomMarch 14, 2012 at 11:15 AM

    What is the support do you see, I am hoping that silver hold here and go back and reach 38- 39 target what SC mentioned, but huge technical chart damage has been done today in both Gold and Silver so it will be hard to say, this can continue until $ 28 to $ 26.

    ReplyDelete
  16. SS76March 14, 2012 at 11:15 AM

    I sold my Silver at what I bought it at, and bought HVU yesterday at $6.43. There was no sense holding silver with the FEDs optimism yesterday.

    ReplyDelete
  17. SCMarch 14, 2012 at 11:17 AM

    This is a great opportunity for Silver and Gold!!!

    ReplyDelete
  18. StockboomMarch 14, 2012 at 11:17 AM

    Looks like equity market also will join commodities very soon....

    Blood bath...

    ReplyDelete
  19. StockboomMarch 14, 2012 at 11:19 AM

    SC,

    have you taken long position in Gold or silver? or should wait for tomorrow?

    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 14, 2012 at 11:22 AM

      I'm buying, this is a steal! Silver may have potential downside 40 cents, and upside $7-8.

      Delete
  20. sun_shineMarch 14, 2012 at 11:28 AM

    SC, how big a pop do you expect in HVU by tomorrow?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 14, 2012 at 11:31 AM

      Actually I don't think there is much more next few days. I think it'll test the lows again (and probably lower), but next week should be spectacular. $9.50 or so.

      Delete
    2. sun_shineMarch 14, 2012 at 11:34 AM

      Okay, I will look for entry perhaps around $6.00 by Friday. Already made some profit today.

      Delete
  21. StockboomMarch 14, 2012 at 11:29 AM

    SC, please note that major technical support at 32.50 for silver has been broken today, Gold's major support is 1600 and that will be tested; almost guaranteed...

    What do you think? does it make sense?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 14, 2012 at 11:36 AM

      Downside very minimal, Gold trading right in that cluster of support.

      Delete
  22. SCMarch 14, 2012 at 11:40 AM

    I have a new chart coming for SPX. 1390 looks like it can hold for a day or two.

    ReplyDelete
  23. SCMarch 14, 2012 at 11:43 AM

    Dumped UVXY, will plan to pick it up again lower.

    ReplyDelete
  24. SamiMarch 14, 2012 at 11:51 AM

    SC so no more going down to 1372 ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 14, 2012 at 11:53 AM

      I still that but we may bounce up first and hover. So delayed a day or two.

      Delete
  25. mickMarch 14, 2012 at 11:57 AM

    aapl reversal ... was that all time high ???

    ReplyDelete
  26. StockboomMarch 14, 2012 at 12:06 PM

    Now I know why Gold has declined so rapidly today...historical value...

    http://learning.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/march-14-1900-u-s-officially-adopts-gold-standard/

    ReplyDelete
  27. BlakeMarch 14, 2012 at 12:22 PM

    no buyers in sight for gold or silver...nothing that resembles a reversal or basing pattern.

    ReplyDelete
  28. SantaMarch 14, 2012 at 1:50 PM

    Hi SC

    You mention
    "Dumped UVXY, will plan to pick it up again lower."

    wondering if you have a target for that lower you may be looking for? and also for HVU?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 14, 2012 at 2:26 PM

      SPX may attempt 1387-90 again tomorrow morning, but I think that level holds so UVXY could retest the low around $23.25, and the other $6.25.

      Delete
    2. SantaMarch 14, 2012 at 3:07 PM

      Hi SC

      That weird, like today, with a small drop in SPX, UVXY rise huge % wise.

      In order for UVXY to get back to 23.25, I am assuming here you expecting SPX to get very near 1400. right?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. SCMarch 14, 2012 at 4:34 PM

      Yes, and things can go quiet which is when the volatility expectations flatten off.

      Delete
  29. dj oussMarch 14, 2012 at 3:22 PM

    I bought silver @ 32.10$. I think maybe we touched a bottom when the POS hitted 31.62$

    ReplyDelete
  30. joedMarch 14, 2012 at 7:20 PM

    http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/7413/silver240.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  31. joedMarch 14, 2012 at 8:31 PM

    "curiousmindMar 14, 2012 07:04 AM
    Do you see gold dipping to the yellow line before rebounding? Is price or time the bigger influencing factor?"

    Srry curious, I did not see your?............you can see that price has hit and is sitting on the Median Line and the harmonic! TIME is always more important to me.......it is what leads price into any target IMHO! Best, joed

    ReplyDelete
  32. SamiMarch 14, 2012 at 10:05 PM

    Joed.. are you going to post your charts on the SPX where we are going medium term and short term?

    ReplyDelete
  33. JGMarch 14, 2012 at 10:20 PM

    Joed, as well as where your charts show silver going short and medium term? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  34. SS76March 15, 2012 at 7:51 AM

    Well, sold HVU at 7.03 and bought HZU at 6.27. Hope this works out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaMarch 15, 2012 at 8:35 AM

      Hi SS76

      you think you will get more bang for your buck once we get a direction change with HZU than HVU?

      How?

      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. SS76March 15, 2012 at 8:41 AM

      Just a quick trade.....I think AM is right in that the S&P will head to 1425, and that is where I plan on loading up HVU. HZU/Silver is behaving differently so I don't know what to expect, but I just got stopped out (I'm not tolerating any more losses, lol).

      Delete
  35. SamiMarch 15, 2012 at 8:30 AM

    SC any short term charts coming for spx?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 15, 2012 at 9:11 AM

      Yes, Sami update coming. SPX is "digesting" today as mentioned yesterday.

      Delete
  36. AMMarch 15, 2012 at 8:59 AM

    If anyone here is following Martin Armstrongs work, he has called the beginning of hyperinflationary scenario. His pi cycle projected economic confidence low in june 2011, since then it did improve significantly, the dip was bought heavily and now we are rallying. There is a lot of dumb money sitting on the side waiting to get in on any pull back. With CB's buying directly with nice credit lines we wont see it crash for months. Hence gold/silver may actually correct further until markets realize again that something here stinks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AMMarch 15, 2012 at 9:10 AM

      2011-2012 will turn out to be the biggest bear trap. The public is ready, its been conditioned for many years with the doom and gloom scenarios. Instead we are getting the opposite.

      Delete
  37. monadMarch 15, 2012 at 9:11 AM

    SC

    for a short term,we wait a chart for silver .Is it possible.And is there SHS on silver in actuel chart?

    ReplyDelete
  38. SCMarch 15, 2012 at 9:20 AM

    Let's see how Silver trades over the next few days. Some downside is still possible. The way Silver trades it could overshoot on the downside and present lower entries, but yet it is becoming attractive for a move to $38-39.

    It would not really surprise me if it tested $30 on the Silver futures with a brief dip and reversal. I'll be ready and, will take advantage in an aggressive way should that occur.

    ReplyDelete
  39. SamiMarch 15, 2012 at 9:44 AM

    SC are you still short from 1370 area?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 15, 2012 at 9:55 AM

      I'm short S&P, sideways now, but expecting a moderate dip next couple days.

      Delete
    2. SantaMarch 15, 2012 at 9:57 AM

      Hi SC

      you dont think we head higher the next couple of days? what happen to your chart about 15 to 19 is just rise up? things changed?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. SamiMarch 15, 2012 at 9:58 AM

      whats the target for the dip if you don't mind me asking?

      Thank you

      Delete
  40. SCMarch 15, 2012 at 10:04 AM

    SPX was strong on the 13th and already reached the target for the 16th. So now I think SPX just hovers here today, no upside, and I expect selloff into March 20th 1372 area.

    ReplyDelete
  41. SCMarch 15, 2012 at 10:06 AM

    March 7th was forecast as a low, March 13th was forecast as a high, and March 20th is the next low. The timing cycle is working great.

    ReplyDelete
  42. AnonymousMarch 15, 2012 at 10:08 AM

    SC, I would like to tell you that I DO like the way that you are always in peace.
    You have convinctions and you follow them without hesitating. It's really impressive.

    ReplyDelete
  43. SamiMarch 15, 2012 at 10:08 AM

    thank you sir :)

    Ignore the haters... if SC's called were used with proper stops in place.. Far more winning trades than losses.

    the hell with all the haters..

    ReplyDelete
  44. MoneymanMarch 15, 2012 at 10:21 AM

    Hi SC!

    So next week we will go down to 1372 and then a slight higher high after that? And then flush down.?

    Or what is next?!

    Take Care SC.

    Ciao! :-)

    ReplyDelete
  45. sun_shineMarch 15, 2012 at 10:24 AM

    Thanks SC for all your advice.
    I got in HVU at the S&P spike today ($6.76) but will sell before close. Will look at an entry Friday afternoon and may hold till monday/tuesday

    ReplyDelete
  46. SCMarch 15, 2012 at 10:54 AM

    If bought the Silver dip yesterday, good spot to take profit, and a short could be considered for a few days. I don't think we've seen the low quite yet.

    The bigger picture is positive for Silver.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. StockboomMarch 15, 2012 at 11:14 AM

      This is what I like about your analysis...great move...I wish I would have "Like" button same as FB...LOL

      Anyway super like!

      Delete
  47. KlaatuMarch 15, 2012 at 11:28 AM

    I agree with your view of moderate pullback into Mar.19/20th,
    but I feel we might have a strong run to 1425-50.Do you feel that is possibe? Charts/updates are excellent and really appreciate your timely updates.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 15, 2012 at 11:42 AM

      I'll have the SPX update out later today. 1372-75 for March 20th, and I do see a final pop to 1410 or so, but that is it.

      Delete
    2. KlaatuMarch 15, 2012 at 11:46 AM

      Many thanks. Look forward to your update.

      Delete
  48. JustinMarch 15, 2012 at 11:31 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  49. JustinMarch 15, 2012 at 11:36 AM

    Just to clarify this is your Silver roadmap:
    1) One more marginal new low below yesterday
    2) Big squeeze up to $38
    3) Massive crash below 2011 lows

    How many days, weeks, months do you think it will take to transition from 1 to 2 to 3?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 15, 2012 at 11:51 AM

      1. Yes we need to see capitulation for Silver, not too much lower over next few days.

      2. Yes, a fast move to $38-39 will surprise imo.

      3. In April, Silver starts it's deep descent. This will take many months time in stair step fashion. Steep drops with moderate bounces.

      Delete
    2. SantaMarch 15, 2012 at 12:27 PM

      Hi SC

      with your prediction on silver in April. Do you foresee what the rest of the market may be doing? like specifically gold, spy


      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. SCMarch 15, 2012 at 12:48 PM

      Gold super strong, SPY weak.

      Delete
  50. SS76March 15, 2012 at 12:30 PM

    SC, what about S&P options expiring and what effect will it have on HVU?

    STOCKS NEWS US-Strategists look at S&P expiration6 minutes ago by Thomson Reuters
    Real-time equity news [E U] U.S. stock market report 1214 ET 15March2012-Strategists look at S&P options expiration -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- S&P 500 Index options with a notional value of $520 billion are expiring this Friday, said JPMorgan Securities derivatives strategist Marko Kolanovic in a report on Friday. This week marks the quarterly expiration and settlement of March equity futures and options, an event termed by pros as Quadruple witching. Separately, MKM Partners, in a report on Thursday, said the S&P 500 expiration sets up as a tame event, as it has for the last couple of months. Kolanovic noted over the past months, investors on average bought downside puts and sold upside calls to reduce portfolio risk. As the market rallied, these puts got further out-of-the-money and calls closer to the money. Hedging of this exposure by dealers (long S&P 500 gamma), put more pressure on market realized volatility, he said. Gamma refers to the sensitivity of an option contract's delta to further price movement. Delta is a measure of how much an option price changes when the underlying stock price changes. March options are now being rolled into longer maturities and the new options are being struck at higher levels of S&P 500. "For this reason, S&P 500 options roll is reversing long gamma exposure into a short gamma exposure," he said. "This is removing the lid from market realized volatility, which is likely to increase from the unusually low levels we witnessed earlier in the year." Over the past week, premium of S&P 500 implied over realized volatility reached record levels. This was the result of suppressed levels of realized volatility, very large demand for volatility based exchange-traded products and reduced supply by dealers, he said. Reuters Messaging: doris.frankel.reuters.com@reuters.net

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 15, 2012 at 12:51 PM

      It may be quiet, VIX etc can slump somewhat.

      Delete
  51. SCMarch 15, 2012 at 12:49 PM

    Gold has played out according to the January prediction:

    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/gold-starting-to-shine.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousMarch 15, 2012 at 1:01 PM

      Indeed SC.
      So you think that gold has already bottomed, right ?

      Delete
    2. SCMarch 15, 2012 at 1:17 PM

      I suspect it may not have bottomed yet, but there is hardly any downside imo. In the next few days we will confirm.

      Delete
  52. dj oussMarch 15, 2012 at 3:05 PM

    Is POS bottomed yet?

    ReplyDelete
  53. wxmanMarch 15, 2012 at 3:09 PM

    Excellent call SC

    ReplyDelete
  54. SamiMarch 15, 2012 at 8:28 PM

    SC based on my observation we are going to 1425 to mark the top.

    Wave 1 from the 1341 low to 1374 about ~33 points...

    wave 2 pullback to about 1365 ... about 8-9 points
    wave 3 1365 to 1398 ... ~33 points...
    wave 4 pullback to 1390 about 8 points...

    Wave 5.. 1390 + 33 points ... 1420- 1425 give or take...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaMarch 15, 2012 at 9:35 PM

      Hi Sami

      Which wave are we currently on with your prediction?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. SamiMarch 15, 2012 at 9:54 PM

      wave 5 on the way up...last one I would assume

      Just going by how Joed seems to label his charts..5 wave moves...

      Delete
    3. SantaMarch 15, 2012 at 10:45 PM

      not sure which chart you looking at from Joed. but if you talking about the latest one with the Beans only chart. I am thinking we already reach there...unless I am mistaking.


      Thanks!

      Delete

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