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Thursday, March 8, 2012

Silver - Bottomed

It is likely that Silver has bottomed.  Silver probably will cool off today/tomorrow to build a base first, and then continue much higher next week.

The Silver futures could settle back to $33.30 or so first.  The target for the futures is $38 this month.

30min Chart
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65 comments:

  1. SCMarch 8, 2012 at 6:04 AM

    Obviously SPX bottomed as well. The bottom came in near the end of the day on the 6th which was in line with the timing cycle for the 7th.

    Today/tomorrow morning, SPX will likely cool off somewhat, but similar to Silver - minor. The next time cycle date to watch is around March 13th. The cycle analysis is positive into that date.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousMarch 8, 2012 at 6:19 AM

    SC, are you waiting for $33.30 befire going long ?
    According to you, silver is not expected to drop more than $32.5 ?
    Thanks

    And congrats for your analysis ! It's really impressive

    ReplyDelete
  3. MikeMarch 8, 2012 at 6:23 AM

    So will you be selling your UVXY later today? Guess TVIX isn't going anywhere for quite a while. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 8, 2012 at 6:29 AM

      Yes, maybe can see around breakeven today/tomorrow morning. The markets look weak for today/tomorrow morning but since they shot up overnight, only a minor retracement can be expected imo.

      Next week I plan to build up a position again.

      Delete
  4. SCMarch 8, 2012 at 6:25 AM

    Low $33 for the Silver futures looks good today/tomorrow. Great spot to add imo.

    Next week should be strong for Silver.

    ReplyDelete
  5. SantaMarch 8, 2012 at 6:28 AM

    Hi SC

    If Silver is strong next week, and spy as well, would you be dumping your UVXY you got yesterday and get into more silver?

    Logically, UVXY would be lower next week right? or you keeping it, and sell your silver next week and add to UVXY?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 8, 2012 at 6:33 AM

      I plan to sell UVXY on a bounce today/tomorrow. I think it'll go lower next week but not a huge amount. I'll pick it up again then.

      Delete
  6. ThaiHawaiiMarch 8, 2012 at 7:21 AM

    SC ..... Why is it obvious that the bottom is in on the SPX??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 8, 2012 at 7:31 AM

      Well when I say bottom I am just talking short term. A low was due in the time cycle March 7th +/- 1 day and I think it came in on the 6th late in the trading day.

      Today/tomorrow look somewhat weak, but I think we'll just see some retracement and a move higher into around March 13th next week.

      Delete
  7. campagnoloMarch 8, 2012 at 7:22 AM

    Hi SC, I see your target for silver end of month is 38. Now, what's your projection after that, what's your analysis tells you about silver going to middle 40's? or taking a dip?, thanks a lot for sharing your insight.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 8, 2012 at 7:35 AM

      I have a plan for that with targets. Let me show that soon with the charts.

      Delete
  8. dj oussMarch 8, 2012 at 8:30 AM

    The POS bounced off the 34$ range back to approx 33.60$. Can we say that this is the new bottom for silver and that it will go to your target from now on?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 8, 2012 at 8:55 AM

      Not yet, sideways until tomorrow imo, then run up.

      Delete
  9. RobMarch 8, 2012 at 8:30 AM

    In regards to your silver analysis, I think it could potentially be way off base.

    An interesting read regarding market liquidity in regards to silver.

    http://www.marketanthropology.com/2012/03/is-market-vulnerable-silver-says-yes.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 8, 2012 at 8:46 AM

      What I am suggesting is much in tune with this article. My work suggests a final pop before a larger decline in Silver.

      Delete
    2. RobMarch 8, 2012 at 9:26 AM

      Yes, but the key difference is that this article thinks that silver is about to decline immediately with the stock market. Perhaps it is finally time that your crash scenario plays out.

      Delete
    3. SCMarch 8, 2012 at 9:57 AM

      I continue to see that scenario playing out, but it seems we can see some "chop at the top". So the difference is just in terms of short term timing.

      Delete
  10. RogerMarch 8, 2012 at 9:14 AM

    SC. Have you out UVXY yet? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 8, 2012 at 9:24 AM

      Not yet, should have earlier. Another bounce likely, and tomorrow morning may be a good spot too.

      Delete
  11. HammermanMarch 8, 2012 at 9:41 AM

    Hi SC,
    I agree silver looks strong (maybe through March 18). But i think gold looks weak. It is only up $7 today while USD has dropped .5 and still dropping. What are your thoughts on gold over the next week ? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  12. SCMarch 8, 2012 at 9:55 AM

    Gold may take some time to get going, but I think it'll surge up also.

    ReplyDelete
  13. SCMarch 8, 2012 at 10:12 AM

    Thanks for the article, good points.

    ReplyDelete
  14. SamiMarch 8, 2012 at 11:08 AM

    SC when is your target date for 1307 on the SPX?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 8, 2012 at 11:18 AM

      I like that target for March 20th.

      Delete
    2. SantaMarch 8, 2012 at 12:08 PM

      Hi SC

      with that target of 1307 around March 20th, wondering if you may know a target for UVXY now going to be at that date after this split?

      and HVU?

      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. SCMarch 8, 2012 at 12:30 PM

      UVXY can bounce up first tomorrow a little, but test $26-27 next week to bottom out. Then it can test $36 again, pullback a fair amount, and the target would be low $40's.

      So HVU would be around $11 area.

      Delete
    4. beetlejuiceMarch 8, 2012 at 8:39 PM

      SPX highs in?
      Looks like a back test of the wedge breakdown but momentum indicators are still pointing down on daily.
      Also the USD back tested it's breakout and looks to be pointing higher. Virtually every analyst that turned bearish earlier this week has now done a back flip and is talking of new highs.
      Market may just suck in everyone here especially if employment figures disappoint.

      Delete
  15. SantaMarch 8, 2012 at 12:10 PM

    Hi SC

    you mention a high may happen towards the 13th? currently we are at like 1367 and on ward. Like pretty close to the peak of 1378 that we recently had, just like 11 more points, you think this high is going to take out that 1378 on the 13th?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 8, 2012 at 12:33 PM

      That could happen though I don't see much upside either.

      Delete
  16. StockboomMarch 8, 2012 at 12:59 PM

    SC,

    I posted some data on recent rise in price of Gold and how retail investors have contributed the rise, on same note I am suspecting that retail investors will jump on this time around as recent drop must have hurt their feeling about precious metal prices.

    Just thought

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  17. SCMarch 8, 2012 at 1:04 PM

    Yes, thanks for that data. Interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  18. dj oussMarch 8, 2012 at 1:16 PM

    SC,

    I am wondering how much HZU will rise for the next week. Do you have any projections for it?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 8, 2012 at 1:20 PM

      Around $9 this month. Not sure if that could be reached next week though.

      Delete
    2. dj oussMarch 8, 2012 at 1:31 PM

      Thanks for the fast reply!

      I greatly appreciate your work here.

      Delete
  19. AnonymousMarch 8, 2012 at 3:10 PM

    SLV Analysis

    http://sheepgetslaughtered.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  20. joedMarch 8, 2012 at 5:12 PM

    http://img545.imageshack.us/img545/8996/dowcycle36.gif


    http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/8783/silverj.gif

    ReplyDelete
  21. AnonymousMarch 9, 2012 at 4:35 AM

    I think silver is going to dip just a little, because of unemployement in the US.

    ReplyDelete
  22. JimMarch 9, 2012 at 6:01 AM

    Good article by Bill Luby at Seeking Alpha....

    about: TVIX, includes: UVXY, VXX

    http://tinyurl.com/733rbm9

    ReplyDelete
  23. monadMarch 9, 2012 at 6:30 AM

    SC
    What do you think of s
    ilver now? May it go lower? Will your target ($38) come by Mid March?
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 9, 2012 at 6:47 AM

      Silver looks good, little downside, though it may need another day or two to build up a base here. It is setting to launch higher up to that $38 level.

      Delete
  24. meteoMarch 9, 2012 at 7:17 AM

    i switched ALL my position tvix in UVXY , NOW... !!

    ReplyDelete
  25. meteoMarch 9, 2012 at 7:20 AM

    Hy ,SC ... What's think about UVXY ... 1370 may be double top... and risk/premium from now for UVXY is great.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 9, 2012 at 7:27 AM

      I just bought a bunch more of it. The market looks very extended here. Due for at least a small pullback.

      Delete
  26. SantaMarch 9, 2012 at 7:27 AM

    Hi SC

    Do you still have plan to get out of your UVXY today? thinking ahead if we go up till the 13th, do you plan to hold your uvxy then or just let it go today and not hold for the weekend?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 9, 2012 at 7:32 AM

      I think it'll bounce back to at least $30.50, may sell there.

      Delete
  27. beetlejuiceMarch 9, 2012 at 8:11 AM

    Hmmm..... I contemplated buying UVXY but opted for TVIX. The MACD for TVIX appears to be in a more positive path to me and I think when the MACD crosses it could be explosive for TVIX.

    ReplyDelete
  28. meteoMarch 9, 2012 at 8:42 AM

    vIX daily IS NEAR low bollinger band and UVXY the same...

    ReplyDelete
  29. SantaMarch 9, 2012 at 9:11 AM

    Hi SC

    UVXY currently at 28 ish...let say if we dont hit around 30.5, would you hold it over the weekend?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 9, 2012 at 9:18 AM

      Yes, I would. SPX is very overextended here, and due to dip a little today/Monday. I think we are back to a sideways grind next week much like late Feb. Not much upside or downside - sideways in a tight range.

      Delete
    2. SantaMarch 9, 2012 at 10:18 AM

      hmm, how about the cycle high of march 13? do you think we hit that already? cause we are at like ~1375 today already, last peak was 1378.

      Delete
    3. SCMarch 9, 2012 at 10:31 AM

      Because it pushed up already I think there is practically little for upside.

      Delete
  30. beetlejuiceMarch 9, 2012 at 10:16 AM

    SC, you appear to have dismissed any notion of a market collapse am I correct?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 9, 2012 at 10:22 AM

      No, not at all. This is going to collapse. I just see this as chop at the top.

      Delete
  31. Jay StraussMarch 9, 2012 at 10:34 AM

    HI SC
    ITS VERY POSSIBLE today's high at 1375 can be seen as a failed FIFTH of 3 of (C)
    thus MONDAY could be a strong SLAM - leading to
    a correction thru the 16th. That would set the stage for
    a FINAL 5/5/(3)-(C) 19th thru the 22nd above 1400.
    THEN, (4) & (5) still coming afterward probably finish late July - but we can cover all that later
    Jaywiz

    ReplyDelete
  32. joedMarch 9, 2012 at 11:29 AM

    INDU

    http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/1143/indutime.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  33. SamiMarch 9, 2012 at 11:44 AM

    starting to loose faith on the 1044 target by march end to say the least :(

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jay StraussMarch 9, 2012 at 1:42 PM

      MY cycle work suggests that 2013-14 can be dramatically lower, but 2012 is scheduled for higher levels- maybe 1400 by March 22nd after a dip to 1300-1330 by next Friday
      Can get rather WILD this month
      March madness for sure[gg]

      Delete
  34. ILUVPMSMarch 9, 2012 at 11:46 AM

    I dont understand how you can assume a market crash when all this cbs are pumping liquidity into the system... boggles my mind.

    ReplyDelete
  35. StockboomMarch 9, 2012 at 12:03 PM

    Guys,

    Don't ignore today's volume, it is swimming on very low volume....anything is possible on Monday..

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  36. joedMarch 9, 2012 at 12:18 PM

    AAPL

    http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/620/aapl.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  37. monadMarch 10, 2012 at 4:33 AM

    Hi Bobo!
    If silver comes back to (33,60), According to your model, which point will it come from?
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  38. monadMarch 10, 2012 at 4:59 AM

    Well, one more question to you,In your opinion,will max.level ($38?) be by 16 Marc? or that this target will come true,may delayed another week or weeks?

    ReplyDelete
  39. monadMarch 10, 2012 at 5:17 AM

    I think so,once again thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  40. lkcdMarch 14, 2012 at 3:57 AM

    132 Million Ounces of Paper Silver Dumped in 30 Minutes After FOMC Statement

    http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2012/03/132-million-ounces-of-paper-silver.html

    ReplyDelete

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