The fork lines have been useful as support and resistance. Yesterday, price struggled at the orange fork line for much of the day, and then fell to backtest the yellow support.
Technically SPX is still in an uptrend as price has broken up out of the yellow fork, and remains in the orange uptrending fork. Another test of yesterday's high seems likely.
10min Chart
SC,
ReplyDeleteWhat you view in long term ? New high (over 1376) or new low (under 666)?
Thanks
Both lol! We'll go to new highs first.
ReplyDeleteOne possibility today is we slide down the yellow line and test the turquoise support. Then a better bounce from that point.
ReplyDeleteSilver - I still think it tests bottom $27 area soon. That might be early next week so will reshort if it pops up here to $32-33.
ReplyDeleteSC, whats your take on gold here, bounce a bit higher or down we go to take out/or test 1532?
ReplyDeleteWhats your final target for the bottom, still 1250 or moved up higher?
How far do you think it will rise after dropping to 27 next week SC? 35? 40? And what is the ceiling for gold in your opinion, 1700-1800?
ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing your work!
I'm going to look more in depth at Gold today, have been watching Silver closer than Gold lately. It seems to me that Gold could test the low 1700's next. That may be a spot to consider shorting Gold.
ReplyDeleteI like 1230 for a bottom on Gold this year. Next year lower.
Silver might be able to test near $34 next few days before falling to that $27. After $27 heading to $36 area.
Unlikely to see $40 Silver for many years imo.
Thank you! I am planning to get rid of the last amounts of physical metals if the price rises a little here. Do you think it is important to keep some physical metal these days and in the near future? Is a financial collapse expected anytime soon, where metals would help me in some way? And when should one start buying physical in the future in your opinion.
ReplyDeleteThank you again! I appreciate and trust your insight!
SC. I thought silver already test $33.5 (near $34) yesterday (9/27). Could it start test bottom at $27 now? Or are you referring SLV? Thanks for your sharing.
ReplyDeleteThere are a number of considerations regarding physical holdings. In terms of just price, I am very bearish on the metals into 2012. Mid-late 2012 is where I am expecting a bottom. Eventually I do see a gigantic bull mkt for the metals, but this is going to take a very long time to develop. Think decades. There are other factors to consider including possible government limitation on holdings etc...
ReplyDeleteSilver has been slowly sliding slower, but I think Silver might pop first and test those highs again before declining to test $27.
ReplyDeleteSo I opted to sit back, and wait since we are in the mid range here.
Sold some of my ZSL that I bought yesterday. It is up almost $3 in a day so taking some profits. I will keep some ZSL if silver goes lower, or reshort at higher levels. Either way is fine with me.
ReplyDeleteSC, do think that $27 area will be the tempory floor when we get there soon or it could overshoot it to the downside?
A little overshoot. In terms of SLV $27 or a little lower is the next target and I think it can bounce to $29.50 or so again before finally bottoming.
ReplyDeleteThe future hit $26 on Sunday.
SPX - The plan from yesterday continues to work well.
ReplyDeleteJust after the open I said yesterday:
"One possibility today is we slide down the yellow line and test the turquoise support. Then a better bounce from that point."
SC
ReplyDeletewhat is your target for snp on this jump?
Also what silver price are you planning to enter short? or you already short silver today morning?
Thanks
I've been thinking SPX could test Tues high at 1196. We do have the financials holding up a little better today. However, Mon/Tues look potentially quite weak in my cycle work so not much time to work with. A careful approach here seems to be a good idea.
ReplyDeleteSilver is stuck in the mid-range. I am interested in shorting at $33-34, or buying around $27.
Hi Gabe - if you are trading today shoot me an email:
ReplyDeletecyclicalanalyst@gmail.com
Thanks!
2 weeks+ w/o new lows
ReplyDeletewe go to the 3rd...
if market do not breakdown next week, then forget about new lows, we go to new highs!
What has happened to everyone this morning?
ReplyDeleteProbably many traders taking a breather as mkt consolidates sideways.
ReplyDeleteSPX has held along the lower orange fork line this morning. However, my cycle works looks quite bearish for early next week.
SC, looks like metals are ready to take the next waterfall down?
ReplyDeleteSilver has been slipping a little here, but still relatively quiet. Let's see if any action into the close.
ReplyDeleteLast day of the week, month, and quarter with the latter two being miserable. It sure sets up for an interesting, volatile October with its reputation. Personally, I am looking for a washout type of decline on the SPX down into the 1050-1060 zone, maybe all the way down to Gabe's target below 1000 where a very large advance should ensue.
ReplyDelete