My cycle work called for a decline with peak bearishness centered on today (as mentioned last week). According to that analysis, the cycle remains moderately bearish until Friday. Starting this Friday it turns quite bullish again including the majority of next week.
15min Chart
Pennant forming... does it break up or down?
ReplyDeletehttp://i16.photobucket.com/albums/b7/maniacr/bigchart8j.gif
SC
ReplyDeletePLEASE UPDATE ON SILVER
Will do. I like the way Gold sold off from the double top. I'll be watching both metals closely here.
ReplyDeleteSC, could your timing be off for metals and we rally into late '11 from here (strong seasonality kicking in)?
ReplyDeleteI've been looking at the mkts one step at a time. We do have a double top in place on Gold now, and lately the selloffs in Gold have been sharp. It's not enough for confirmation yet, but at a minimum the trend has been weakening.
ReplyDeleteSC, HUI is breaking out of april highs. In april miners topped out before gold, now miners are surging higher (despite main market sell off in the past month), confirming new gold highs.
ReplyDeletewith CHF no longer being safe heaven, bullion gold and silver are the only non-printable currencies left. Gold is trading as a currency, not as a commodity.
We probably will not get any significant correction in metals from here. Consolidation, than move to new all time highs.
Look at POG in CHF/EURO all broke out. When POG in yen breaks out its 2000+/Oz gold.
I think your cycle timing is off, especially for silver.
-BM.
Well, let's see how it shapes up in coming days/weeks bluemoon. HUI is above April highs but the performance has been much weaker than Gold itself for many months.
ReplyDeleteSC, so you don't have a timeline, could be days, could be months?
ReplyDeleteIs my understanding correct that the symmetry charts you posted for silver are not valid then?
i thought your cycles pointed to a major turn a few weeks ago, hence your extremely bearish prognosis for metals at that time.
ReplyDeletePerhaps your cycle got it 180' wrong, since we got break out instead?
HUI looks like it can break out of the fibo resistance it is at right now, then back test it around 630 and continue higher to 700+.
Which will take silver at least 10$ up.
It has taken time for the metals to top out which is understandable since Gold has had a 10 year runup, but the symmetry still looks fine. I'm catching up since being away but will have updated metal charts soon.
ReplyDeleteThere is plenty of healthy debate with the PM's right now, but I was looking for a double top on Gold, and we do have a potential double top in place now, so far so good, but not enough yet. I'm willing to keep an open mind, and have been waiting for confirmation before shorting.
S&P looks toppy on a short term basis. Both financials and RUT were weaker performers this morning than S&P.
ReplyDeleteBearishness peaked in my cycle work on Tues, and that held as a bottom. The cycle is still bearish into Friday but has been improving (becoming less bearish) since Tues. Next week it looks quite bullish.
So there probably is room for a decent pullback, and then a spot to go long.
I believe it is wrong to automatically assume the breakout in the HUI will result in higher gold prices. There have been many times when the two simply didn't move together and currently bullion has been out-performing for so long that we could easily see much higher HUI prices while gold itself declines (not saying this will be the case, just pointing out the possibility)
ReplyDeleteCHF devaluation will lead to the capital flow out of CHF and into gold directly. Money is looking for safety, im wondering how much $$ was parked in CHF, because even if part of it gets into the precious metals market now - the prices will explode again.
ReplyDeleteSovereign debt problem is not going anywhere for a long time. This gold bull still has a few years to run, silver is just starting.
bluemoon,
ReplyDeletei am in complete agreement yet that doesn't mean gold cannot correct 300-400 bucks. Personally, I am a little suspicious of the current "double top" and believe we will burst through those highs and exceed $2000 before months' end and only after that run will we come back down to break the $1700 level. Just a guess.
I also see gold above $2000 soon. Should get there before October. After that a normal correction should happen. It's aready so close to 2K and at 2000 they would get more people going long because they don't "want to miss out". That will be the time for a short.
ReplyDeletesymmetry ? http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4z6OWAQtviI/Tmnl4cxw70I/AAAAAAAAGsw/AwS8s6mkOHk/s1600/spx.jpg
ReplyDeleteHi SC, it looks like a weak opening on the markets today, what sort of level would you be looking at going long? I also think we are headed higher next week to the 1240 area before a bigger drop to 1080-1100 zone.
ReplyDeleteSure enough - a good pullback off the high yesterday.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the levels now Muzz, will let you know. Probably sometime today because expecting a strong rally Monday/Tues.
Thanks SC look forward to seeing your levels :)
ReplyDeleteSC the markets are really getting smashed today, is this a bear trap or is it headed much lower? are you still looking at levels to go long?
ReplyDeleteLot of rumours today!
ReplyDelete"Greece Denies Market Rumors That It Plans to Default on Its Debt This Weekend"
9/11 fears
I'm still in that camp Muzz, will want to see more line up favorably to take a long position though. RUT has been a little firmer today, that could be a first clue.
Waiting to see more.
Thanks SC, look forward to your update
ReplyDeleteSC - I just closed my short position to take profit - Waiting for your comments before going long.
ReplyDeleteThx a lot SC.. I am looking forward for your feedback too
ReplyDeleteI am done with the shorts for today... it was a good run.. now looking at the possibility of going long over the weekend...
gaberocks are you online... let us know ur opinion on that if u can
We are now in the post Mercury opposition Neptune aspect, and 3 x X class Solar Flares are on their way here to create havoc on the earth. Not surprising to see the rapid deterioration and down swing of events.
ReplyDeleteJust closed majority of my shorts here today too. Still going to keep a small short position over the weekend, just in case. The market would have to rally quite a bit just to knock that position back to even. Tempted to add a little long position, have to see closer to the close. These would only be small positions as I have never liked holding large positions over weekends...too many things can happen. It would be different if there was a clear top/bottom.
ReplyDeleteThe market is kind of overdue for an "up" Monday, just to completely frustrate the novice traders.
Look like no long set up in sight.
ReplyDeletefivir
ReplyDeleteNothing has changed from my prior posts in my work…I am selling all short setups for swing trades and treating any long trades as day trades……..my opinion will not change on my cycle work unless price overbalancing appears
which has not happened…….Good trading! joed
SC - Are going long today before the close?
ReplyDeleteVery much debating it. So far the mkt is just sort of fumbling along which doesn't give a lot to work with. Let's see how the last 45min shape up here...
ReplyDeleteOK thanks SC
ReplyDeleteYup Long signal is issued
ReplyDeleteWent long, just think the odds are better. Monday/Tues look quite bullish in my cycle work. Traders might be reluctant to go long for this weekend because of 9/11, euro, and since Tues after last weekend was an ugly gap down.
ReplyDeleteI'll take the other side.
I am sticking with my small short position over the weekend. Not going long. Don't want to worry about the market over the weekend. I can always do a day trade(long) on Monday after seeing how the markets look.
ReplyDeleteHad another awesome week shorting the market. Have a great weekend.
SC - Took a small long position I am with you
ReplyDeleteLet's see how it goes Sal, no guarantees of course, but going with the odds.
ReplyDeleteSC - I agree - Going with the odds.
ReplyDeleteI think I will take small long here
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