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Thursday, September 1, 2011

$RUT - Looking Top Heavy

Last Friday, I said that my cycle work was bullish for this week.  That has been accurate with the market grinding higher this week.  Using that same analysis, next week looks bearish particularly early in the week centered around Tuesday. 

This also matches up with the summer 2010/2011 timing similarity that I outlined in the last post.

The small caps hit an interesting point yesterday with a reversal down. 

4hour Chart
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40 comments:

  1. SCSeptember 1, 2011 at 6:39 AM

    I am going to be away today and tomorrow - back on Tuesday.

    I'm due for a recharge after all the gyrations in August! Looking foward to September as there are interesting patterns shaping up.

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  2. ckoreySeptember 1, 2011 at 7:58 AM

    Enjoy the time off.

    Question here is it topping or consolidating gains for the next move up?

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  3. AnonymousSeptember 1, 2011 at 11:04 AM

    EMINI DEC

    I continued to talk of the 1225 resistance………1224 was the mid range for the day with the high being 1222………..price is now 20+ points off of the high! Life is good today! Good trading! joed

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  4. PKSeptember 1, 2011 at 11:06 AM

    Gabe,

    Your timing has been impeccable;
    KUDOS!

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  5. AnonymousSeptember 1, 2011 at 11:09 AM

    Pk

    Thank you for the kind words.....

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  6. ckoreySeptember 1, 2011 at 11:47 AM

    Nice work Gabe!

    I'm not as bearish as you yet but my charts are starting to roll.

    No sell signal yet however.

    Be careful.

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  7. fartninja33September 1, 2011 at 11:51 AM

    Echo the comments. Great timing Gabe!

    Got out of my swing earlier in the week from TNA. Bought some TZA yesterday and some more this morning. I primarily use these for my swing trades.

    The VIX is flat. Let's start selling off to get the fear back.

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  8. TimerSeptember 1, 2011 at 12:03 PM

    Check out the astrological forecast for the month of Sep 2011 by Carl. I just don't see how the markets can escape its influences.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zr7DjaSAcMw&feature=player_embedded

    Obama now is going to make a job speech on the 8/9/11. My goodness, that day we will have the Mercury oppose to Neptune again; the last time this happened were the days surrounding the debt impasses and the subsequent downgrade. Massive confusion and melt-down (Neptunium archetypes) caused by the tensed (opposition) communications (Mercurial archetype).

    Also, another period to watch for in September will run from the 24th through the 28th when Uranus and Pluto will be hit by forceful transits from the Sun, Mercury, and Mars. It seems likely this will be a five-day stretch of upset, agitation, and unexpected events. The president will be somewhat distressed by what is happening through September 28 due to the transit of Saturn sesquiquadrate his Moon.

    I think a low of sort will form around the 26 Sep 11. What do you guys think ?

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  9. StevenSeptember 1, 2011 at 12:15 PM

    Awesome trade gaberocks11. I'm with you on the short side. I like the idea of 96 on spy by Oct.

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  10. ckoreySeptember 1, 2011 at 12:49 PM

    With all due respect to Gabe and good traders everywhere..............

    96 by oct is am extreme forecast...............those kinds of forecasts are fun to talk about but more traders have gone bust with those things than sticking with short term set ups.

    Anything can happen but be careful.

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  11. StevenSeptember 1, 2011 at 1:24 PM

    Hi ckorey:
    Caution is always warranted. I've got about 3% of my portfolio riding on this bet,[SDS ultra short S&P 500] but I will lighten up if conditions indicate.

    If you are in a condition where you have to be right, this may not be the trade... nevertheless I like the setup.

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  12. AnonymousSeptember 1, 2011 at 1:40 PM

    ckorey

    You make me laugh........try not to confuse your limitations with someone elses ability ......traders stay with short term setups for the most part because they are trying not to lose money rather than make money! The great traders I know and have known sooner or later go to longer term swings as that is where the money is in the long term! My comments are not forecasts they are the master cycle for this year.......the only thing that could change it is a complete inversion and tha tis what stops are for! Good trading! joed

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  13. AnonymousSeptember 1, 2011 at 1:49 PM

    When the SnP was at the top in July and I called for 100 point drop by Aug live on my own blog........some also felt it was extreme! Word to the wise! Good trading! joed

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  14. PKSeptember 1, 2011 at 1:58 PM

    If indeed these bearish outcomes come to fruition, gold should explode higher; maybe that's why its consolidating so well.

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  15. ckoreySeptember 1, 2011 at 3:03 PM

    Gabe,

    LOL!!! I am not saying you are wrong and I am short since 1224, but some come on these blogs and make big bets on someones call and that's not smart. Just don't want to see anyone get hurt.
    Did not know you had a blog? What is it?
    Anyway wish you the best of luck with your call :-)

    ReplyDelete
  16. AnonymousSeptember 1, 2011 at 3:58 PM

    pk

    Yes and I have also commented on Gold and the Gold/Silver ratio...........we are in front of special trading times! They don't come around every day! Good trading! joed

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  17. PKSeptember 1, 2011 at 4:18 PM

    Gabe,

    much has been written regarding the under performance of gold stocks. With the HUI Index knocking at the door for a breakout, what is your opinion on this sector? (That's if you look at it)

    Thanks

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  18. TimerSeptember 1, 2011 at 4:23 PM

    Gabe,

    Did you say 96, I must have missed it. Any chance of seeing 890 on SP500 ?

    ReplyDelete
  19. AnonymousSeptember 1, 2011 at 4:28 PM

    pk

    My background is cycle work and technical analysis.......mainly GANN,Andrews,Geometry etc. I really am not fundamental guy...so I will not comment! I do trade the ETF's and metal stocks especially for managed money, but not in the form of your question! In my mind charts are lagging! lol Good trading! joed

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  20. AnonymousSeptember 1, 2011 at 4:35 PM

    timer

    I was asked on the SPY which the geometry supports 96.........DEC EMINI I am looking at 980 or so! If you are going that far out in options cut your leverage a bit! You did not hear 890 from me! lol Good trading! joed

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  21. MichaelSeptember 2, 2011 at 3:16 AM

    Hi Gabe - what is your blog address?

    thanks very much

    ReplyDelete
  22. AnonymousSeptember 2, 2011 at 4:04 AM

    Michael

    I shut ir down a couple months ago ....as I was posting live trading, in much of it, it became too demanding! I am considering bringing back but have not yet come to balance point. I also was posting my auto system which has a return of %388 since 2/10/2010 off of daily data, requiring no knowledge of trading ....just a note for anyone thinking short term trading is the answer! Good trading! joed

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  23. RogerSeptember 2, 2011 at 6:12 AM

    Thanks Gabe. Premarket is lower now, will you expect a small bounce here before we see a major plunge next week?

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  24. AnonymousSeptember 2, 2011 at 6:37 AM

    Roger

    Took profit on open...........flat now .........will look to re short higher!

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  25. AnonymousSeptember 2, 2011 at 6:47 AM

    Gabe your call for this week was fantastic...

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  26. AnonymousSeptember 2, 2011 at 6:48 AM

    by the way do you have any target at which to reshort today? Thx

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  27. DD_IngSeptember 2, 2011 at 7:12 AM

    Gabe - thanks for your thoughts, much appreciated and quite impressive I must say!!

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  28. fartninja33September 2, 2011 at 10:56 AM

    Great calls Gabe!

    Anybody else think that if the markets keep falling the next few weeks that $2000 gold will be tested soon. I am thinking of lightening up some of my gold positions before the weekend to lock in some profits. I don't like holding too much precious metals over long weekends.

    Glad I added more TZA yesterday.

    ReplyDelete
  29. AnonymousSeptember 2, 2011 at 11:28 AM

    fivir

    I will not reshort today......going to gym, resting my mind til Tues!

    fart

    Had a bunch of DGP.........sold the open!

    Others....thank you for your kind words....have a good weekend with the ones you love......don't take them for granted! The markets are always here! Good trading! joed

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  30. AnonymousSeptember 2, 2011 at 11:31 AM

    One last thing........this low in the SP/EMINI is a confluence of support! That is why I took profit, not move stops on my carry over day trade! Good trading! joed

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  31. DD_IngSeptember 2, 2011 at 11:35 AM

    Gabe - thanks for thoughts. I decided not to add any shorts here either, looking for a bounce on Tues to re-position myself. Have a great weekend!!

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  32. AnonymousSeptember 2, 2011 at 11:38 AM

    DD

    Especially if it bounces up into resis without taking todays low out first.......that's a no brainer! joed

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  33. m 8 zSeptember 2, 2011 at 11:57 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

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  34. fartninja33September 2, 2011 at 12:48 PM

    Awesome week. Have a great long weekend guys!

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  35. TimerSeptember 2, 2011 at 6:19 PM

    sharing my thoughts.

    http://timecycles-timer.blogspot.com/2011/09/3-sep-thoughts.html

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  36. ChartramblerSeptember 4, 2011 at 4:17 AM

    some charts,also looking for late Sep/early Oct low

    http://chartramblings.blogspot.com/2011/09/spy.html

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  37. SCSeptember 6, 2011 at 7:37 AM

    I'm back. We've seen the selloff into Tuesday which is also the peak bearish day in my cycle work this week. It continues to be bearish until Friday, but only moderately bearish after today.

    I'll have updates later today.

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  38. srikanthSeptember 6, 2011 at 10:16 AM

    Thanks SC,Really appreciate it.

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  39. SqrootSeptember 6, 2011 at 11:24 AM

    SC, Do you think Silver has topped ?

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  40. SCSeptember 6, 2011 at 8:32 PM

    I haven't had a lot of time yet to review Silver since back at the desk, but I doubt that Silver has topped. It seems most likely that Silver tops after Gold.

    ReplyDelete

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