If you have followed my work for some time, then you recognize that I am often mentioning relative performance comparisons between indices. For example, I mentioned on Sept 20th concern that both Small Caps- RUT and Financials - RIFIN were weakening relative to SPX. While SPX was flirting with the highs from Friday Sept 16th, the picture was much different for these indices.
Many times it is the subtle things to pay attention to, and this weakening was indicating at least some type of pullback was approaching. The strength of the selloff was surprising, and was not picked up by my cycle analysis method which was unusual.
10min Chart
We seek perfection where there isn't any (though I am starting to doubt that with Gabe!). IT's okay to be wrong but my comment is with the "adjectives" that are used with things. For example, a "pullback" on the RUT can easily be trumped with "extremely strong" bullish cycles. If one was blindly to look at those statements he/she could easily surmise given the prior statements that it would be wise not to pay attention to the "pullback". In any respect, risk management is what it's all about. If you cut your loses short, you can live to play another day.
ReplyDeleteENIBI DEC......RESHORT
ReplyDeletehttp://img15.imageshack.us/img15/6314/es240min.gif
PK
ReplyDeleteWhen I talked of the coming sell off, one of the members gave me a “Good Luck”……….I responded with saying the country needs luck, I have stops! Simple as that …..risk/reward! No magic! This game is not about right or wrong……it’s about consistent profit! Money management is very important…..without it one has no game! The large turns separate the men from the boys as it tests ones details…….In cycle work you have to have multiple filters to warn you that you are wrong or you will get burnt! Most learn this the hard way! At major turns if your system has a weakness the market will show it! joed
Very well said Gabe
ReplyDeleteBottom line to put on a trade, I want to see the market behaviour confirming what the cycle work is suggesting.
ReplyDeletePossible cycle alignment peak in the VIX…
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/3pl34t6
how do you think next week SC? Thanks
ReplyDeleteI'm going to be reviewing things over the weekend in more detail, but leaning towards a bounce into mid next week. After that first week in October looks bearish to me.
ReplyDeleteWe're likely to see a bounce here. After hitting my Sept 16th cycle peak we now have a probable L-H-L cycle today. It's probably not a good idea be short over the weekend. IMO
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/3cwt447
EMINI 240
ReplyDeletehttp://img713.imageshack.us/img713/3016/clipboard02xk.gif
Gabe:
ReplyDeleteBased on your EMINI 240 chart it appears we have an end to an Elliott Wave count which would indicate a move up. Do you have a retracement target range in mind? Thanks
Wow, just sold the rest of ZSL. Wish I didn't sell so much of it yesterday. My small long got stopped out yesterday about 5 minutes after my post. Holding nothing going into the weekend. Best week I've had in a long time. This old fart, is going to buy some beer and start the weekend off early.
ReplyDeleteThanks for everything guys and have a good weekend.
closed by gld puts for >600% gain. im not greedy, bounce and then down we go?
ReplyDeletesc, today silver down very hard, what is your view?
ReplyDeleteBreathtaking drop for Silver/Gold. My first target $27 for SLV is not far away, with a bounce and slower decline to $18 afterwards.
ReplyDeleteAnyone else thinks QQQ could be under 47 very soon?
ReplyDeleteFartninja33/1inbluemoon....Sweet trades guys.
ReplyDeleteZZ, i was bleeding for a while, so this was a nice resolution.
ReplyDeleteMy question is how deep is the rabbit hole and how come SC seems to be ignoring the metals.
Really doubt silver will head much lower, not sure if any of you ever headed down to street lately, but dang, I just went, and there is a huge ass line non stop with people trying to buy silver coins at this moment. If it drops to 18$, I can see the entire human population will be lining up for the goods. Too much buying pressure, people are buying into this dip like no tomorrow. US dollar aint going to stay high forever.
ReplyDeleteIn my summer analysis regarding the metals, it was always described as a summer short play. It did take longer than I thought, patience was required, and sure enough the metals collapsed.
ReplyDeleteWhat is exciting about this event is that it also has implications for the S&P, and other mkts. Hint - there is only one reason for metals to have collapsed at this juncture. Something to think about, and I will explain what I mean by this on the weekend.
SC
ReplyDeletenot trying to question your ability or any hard feeling but your call on silver was completely wrong ; silver top never came in your cycle and it is heading for 26. what went wrong?
Thaanks
GOLD DEC CHART....
ReplyDeletehttp://img8.imageshack.us/img8/3703/golddec.gif
Hi Gaberocks,
ReplyDeleteCant really see the chart number on your chart. But looking at the green circle placement, you foresee more downsize all the way into the year end?
My PM commentary was far less than perfect I will agree, but my main theory was correct and that is what counts. I have been bearish on the metals looking for the summer collapse and more to come!
ReplyDeleteThe double top on Gold followed through.
SC
ReplyDeleteI agree u were bearish and that is why i was asking question where is your top you have been calling which come after gold!
Now do you see some rebound after this heavy sell off?
Very difficult to be prescise with small movements in Silver. I will show charts this weekend for the metals. There is plenty of downside to come, but yes there will be bounces along the way of course.
ReplyDeletebounce is already happening in the AH for silver.
ReplyDeletesilver already back up a dollar now in the AH...too much down this week to continue on to the next to have another huge drop…may only pick up penny profit next week if plan on shorting, thinking more money to be made with a bounce for sure.
ReplyDeleteinvestbb
ReplyDeleteYou can copy any char and then resize with many free programs! joed
SC, on a bigger scale, do you see this as the end of the bull market for metals ... or good shake out before consolidation and jump higher?
ReplyDeleteThe bull market for Gold and Silver is over. For Silver is was over in April.
ReplyDeleteGLD DAILY..................
ReplyDeletehttp://img24.imageshack.us/img24/6909/glddaily2.gif