The pink fork line was backtested Friday, therefore, a minor decline into a July 7th low is favored. I am seeing Friday, July 8th or Monday, July 11th as the next possible high.
Daily Chart
July 22nd could be an important day. Additional details will be forthcoming at a later date.
Daily Chart
Good Morning SC-
ReplyDeleteDo you expect that today is the test for silver and gold? do you still have the same downside target for silver, or has that changed with the recent move up in the market and drop in the dollar? I have changed my target on the dollar index to about 76 from 77, as this move down has altered my set up.
I did expect a bounce last week and see that Silver and Gold are bouncing strongly this morning. The gap is deceptive as this should be the LAST bounce imo. My target is still around $27 for SLV.
ReplyDeleteI'll show charts next for the PM's.
Financials weak this morning, leading down imo.
ReplyDeleteHow scary you read on silver market,SC.I am looking for the downside target for silver next. Thanks SC,keep up the great work.
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteShorting SPX with HVU or VXX feel like a bloodbath for the few days now. Something is weird that SPX is down today, while VXX and HVU is also down, something isnt matching, wondering your take?
Thanks!
VXX is a different animal. For example on Friday the VIX pushed up quite nicely late in the day, but not nearly so for VXX. My take on that is the mkt makers/traders are smarter than the VIX.
ReplyDeleteWhat I mean is that VXX will take into account future decay if the mkt makers foresee some sideway shuffle (as I have shown on the 60min SPX chart).
VXX won't correlate directly to SPX. Notice that VXX is making a higher low since the morning today with SPX at the highs. That does hint at a decline coming next few days for mkts imo.
I was hoping to see a bigger gap down on SPY this morning, and further decline after the factory orders data, but it looks like it's just hoovering around last Friday's high. When o' when...
ReplyDeleteSC, are you expecting good nonfarm payroll numbers on July 8th and that's why you see it as a day for possible high?
Good question Bob. Actually I'm looking at timing cycles which indicate possible July 8 or 11 high. Really not much higher though - 1347 area SPX is what I am targeting.
ReplyDeleteI do think that could suggest either "positive" nonfarm or at least that perception. The media seems generally negative on the nonfarm...
InvestBB,
ReplyDeleteVIX should make a substantial spike up later this month.
SC still see significant lows around mid-July? You expect a bottom 7-8th, the highs around 11th? SPY to 126-128 levels in a few days would be major.
ReplyDeleteNot expecting too much next few days. A minor low 7th, high 8 or 11th, much larger decline later in the month.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty much in the same boat as you - shorted too early. I'm hoping for a drop on the SPY to 130 in the next days or so to close out my August puts; otherwise, I'm toast :)
At this point I am looking to optimize the short entry. Shorted avg around 1324, and I think could do ok by holding those to 1295 area. I think can do better though, and prefer to cover shorts this week (next few days) and reshort 1345 area for a move to 1295 later in the month.
ReplyDeleteBob, I'm in the same boat as well. Bought Aug puts an entire week early, which I completely read wrong. Although, I averaged down as best I could, each day is bringing me a sea of red. Although time decay certain is a factor, I've closed out many positions way too early, only to have them bounce back. Look at the Aug puts action today compare to calls, it's significantly higher. There's still a lot of time, but certainly would never tell anyone what to do with their own money. In any case, I'm right there with you!
ReplyDeleteRowley and Bob - you are not alone! I bought Aug SPY puts at the end of the day Thursday, and averaged down a little more on Friday. Still a sea of red!! Worried that I may not even be able to break even due to decay and time, though will wait and see, as expiration is still 6 weeks off. This is a dangerous time for bulls and bears alike.
ReplyDeleteFriday surprised a lot of traders. Bottom line the stats are that Friday's 5th day gain in a row has only happened 8 times in history.
ReplyDeleteI am somewhat annoyed with myself for not having paid more attention to my Big Picture chart which would have been golden in predicting the extent of the unusual power rally. I was looking for around 1315 which was still a big jump from 1260, could've been better.
At the same time, should work out just fine and mkt diving at the moment!
tough to see this move in silver as bearish SC. I have exopected it to drop much farther as well, but this is some pretty serious buying here.
ReplyDeleteLet's see how things shape up here Blake. SLV testing the $34.50 to $35 area I have been eyeing.
ReplyDeleteSLV exactly backtesting my main red trendline right now. Not to say it has to stop there.
ReplyDeleteSC , will you still target down for SLV after the bounce? Plz keep update what you see
ReplyDeleteSLV going to 34.68 so far. It seems I picked up some HZD too soon, but not too far though. Will need to hold HZD until silver plunge. Hope SLV will not top to much. Cheers.
ReplyDeleteES just successfully tested the channel bottom off the June lows, and the sideways motion Friday and today has reset the hourly indicators. (Daily indicators are still hugely overbought). I am bearish overall, but there is still room for upside to SPX 1345-1350. A break and kiss-of-death on the channel bottom would be a good sign we are headed down. Clickfor chart.
ReplyDelete