I see the first major support for Gold around $1,300 with some consolidation in that area, and a final target for Gold near $1,250. In percentage terms, GDX declined equivalent to approximately $300 an ounce from the early April top to the mid-May bottom. Silver crashed in May.
GLD broke down out of a large triangle and is backtesting near the apex. Symmetry suggests an extreme decline is approaching.
Considering numerous facts, a Gold crash appears to be imminent.
2hour Chart
Gold symmetry:
60min Chart
sc, let's make some money today on our bear positions.
ReplyDeleteAnother wild opening Nuggy! 3 large gaps in a row.
ReplyDeleteSC, do you still think silver will pull back? Thanks for your work
ReplyDeleteShorted Gold 50% position. Depending on how I draw that triangle we may be right near the apex.
ReplyDeleteSilver seems to be struggling this morning.
ReplyDeleteJust another bear channel, imminent breakdown:
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/Wfc8Uv8BQ4pq
silver sure moves fast :)
ReplyDeleteYes Bob, poof there goes 3 days of Silver gains lol.
ReplyDeleteoh , silver pullback a little , i was scare to look at the price, how far it can pullback this time SC?
ReplyDeleteMight not be much more downside for SPX on a short term basis. Financials firming up.
ReplyDeleteSPX just shot down this morning. Was so underwater last week, I'm truly amazed to see it back in a few days. Don't know if these support levels are going to hold. Think we have another couple of days down.
ReplyDeleteLet's see how Silver acts here TC. So far so good.
ReplyDeleteHussman now has max size gold miner long position. "In bonds, the Market Climate last week was characterized by unfavorable yield levels and mixed yield pressures. Strategic Total Return continues to carry a duration of about 2.5 years, with the primary source of day-to-day fluctuations in the Fund still represented by precious metals shares, where the Fund presently carries just under 20% of assets, based on a uniformity of historically positive factors for that sector (see my 1999 article Going for the Gold for a discussion of some of these considerations). "
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteKudos on the bearish call on US stocks. They have all dropped big today.
Thanks Timer. Trying to ride the wild stallion as best I can lol.
ReplyDeleteJust the same view :
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ellipsetrading.com/?p=866
But i expect buyers to step in around 141-140 and a new leg up to begin.
SC,
ReplyDeleteYou see much more downside beyond this? I'm looking to short XLF if there is more down in the short term.
It seems much too early for more downside. I think we bounce first. I'm thinking moderate bounce with retests of this area, and then could get right back up to 1350 SPX.
ReplyDeleteSentiment far too bearish on gold
ReplyDeletelooks like ES is getting taken out to the woodsheds afterhours!!!
ReplyDeleteHook: I could not disagree more. I have never known such bullish sentiment on gold. Just about everyone, and I mean everyone, is predicting a huge breakout in the coming weeks - despite the dollar now showing strength. I'm not so sure.
ReplyDeleteTom, while I am personally bearish on gold, Hook is right about sentiment overall being very bearish. SentimenTrader just published an article covering various gold sentiment factors (sentiment surveys, put/call ratios, Rydex mutual fund commitment, etc) and their overall sentiment index is at a two year low. It does make me question my own bearish outlook.
ReplyDeleteYes I saw that SentimentTrader article also. I was expecting a further decline in gold until I saw it. Now I'm not so sure.
ReplyDelete