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Saturday, July 16, 2011

Silver - Extreme Declines Approaching

I am continuing to anticipate a shock wave to hit markets this week as I anticipate budget/debt ceiling agreements imminently.  Tuesday seems most likely for the announcement.

Silver closed at the pink trendline resistance on Friday, and could see some early weakness with a grind slightly higher later on Monday. 

The dollar should surge up initially on the news with Silver declining rapidly to point 9. 

15min Chart
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14 comments:

  1. SCJuly 17, 2011 at 5:37 AM

    The update for SPX is coming out later today.

    ReplyDelete
  2. cantdrive55July 17, 2011 at 9:13 AM

    You mean a shockwave selloff on the budget/debt ceiling announcement...right ?

    ReplyDelete
  3. TimerJuly 17, 2011 at 10:20 AM

    No debt ceiling increase by Aug 2 will also be a shock. I think a even bigger shock than if there were to be one. If so, all asset classes will be sold off, and US$ will rise due to short supply.

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  4. SCJuly 17, 2011 at 10:36 AM

    Expecting a series of whipsaws, with debt deal Tuesday most likely imo. The chart will be coming today, and will show what I am seeing in price action much better than I can explain with words.

    First of all, expecting weakness tomorrow morning for SPX. The headlines will be "mkt fears default with no debt deal in sight".

    ReplyDelete
  5. George HJuly 17, 2011 at 12:51 PM

    Well if a spending cut of a meager 1-2T is passed, dollar will tank. Then we may see a counter movement in metals first.

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  6. BlakeJuly 17, 2011 at 5:12 PM

    silver already up another 60 cents tonight. Looks like tomorrow will be as fun as the last couple of weeks have been.

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  7. phantomJuly 17, 2011 at 5:19 PM

    sc,
    i hope you are not committing the cardinal sin of being fixated on just one thought that silver will have to plunge to the $20's range and you are adjusting your charts to suit your beliefs, silver probably will drop lower as it is approaching a very important psychological mark of $ 40 an ounce and more likely than not, will rise . most "experts" believe gold will rise and it will pull silver along with it. no "pun "intended, but the recent price action of PM's does not go along with your theory/charts.

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  8. SCJuly 17, 2011 at 5:36 PM

    Phantom,

    My symmetry chart shows the strong move up that we have seen recently from 7 to 8.

    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/07/silvergold-beware-tops-near-severe.html

    The recent price action is consistent with my symmetry theory.

    ReplyDelete
  9. SCJuly 17, 2011 at 5:47 PM

    I even said in the comments above the chart that I was expecting Silver to move slightly higher on Monday. It will be interesting to see what the open looks like for Silver tomorrow.

    I also said in comments not to expect a debt deal this weekend, and was expecting a lower open for SPX. So far that is consistent as well.

    No question I was early, but I'm after the big play, and I see it developing nicely.

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  10. phantomJuly 17, 2011 at 6:04 PM

    sc,
    i hope you are correct. do your charts consider the demise of the US dollar in play also or are they based on cyles /symmetry.

    ReplyDelete
  11. TimerJuly 17, 2011 at 6:15 PM

    Got this from some other forum. Jul 19 looms as the future is dropping off big at the moment.

    One SC date hit on Wednesday July 6th, +/-2 days, and its F23 from the October 28, 1997 panic low) and could be extremely significant as the next looming SC date is July 19th, an F30 from the October, 19, 1937 panic low (October 19, 1937 was EXACTLY 50 years from the 1987 market crash, TO THE DAY!). THIS JULY 19TH DATE IS HUGE, not just big, but HUGE. Anytime you get 2 dates THAT big coming THAT CLOSE together, a real monster of a move could occur. The proven fact is: the further out on a spiral you get a hit, the more important the hit becomes. So an F23 and and F30 coming within 2 weeks of each other could be the making of a panic of some degree.

    ReplyDelete
  12. SCJuly 17, 2011 at 7:19 PM

    Phantom,

    The behaviour of the dollar is important to understanding this situation with the budget. I have taken into account the dollar, time cycles, symmetry, among other things and the plan shows all of these factors in agreement so I am pleased.

    Thanks Timer,

    Interesting that the 19th shows up as important. I'm not seeing a panic so much as a major whipsaw rippling through the mkts.

    My update/chart will explain this reaction.

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  13. ThaiHawaiiJuly 17, 2011 at 7:25 PM

    Timer

    Your Jul 19 date if +/- 2 days could hit SC's more important Jul 21 date.

    ReplyDelete
  14. TimerJuly 18, 2011 at 4:56 AM

    The VIX is inching up signifying fear is slowly building up.

    http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

    ReplyDelete

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