A powerful rally to 1347 SPX target is anticipated by the timing cycle July 22nd +/- 1 day.
However, a major cycle low is estimated on August 11th +/- 1 day at 1276 SPX. Further details will be outlined on the 30min charts in the near future.
Daily Chart
Probably bounce first, but a brief test of 1293 might still be possible.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you SC that a potential bottom might be in place , why I took 50% shorts off yesterday , but still holding 50% right now and waiting for a sell signal on my shorts before.... as I DONT wanna be too EARLY to sell them...
ReplyDeleteUsually we are too early - I've had a bottom date either Thursday or Friday - so I also think we are close to a bottom , however my next fib date for a short term top is actually end of this month. (Window dressings again ?? ) Who knows... we have seen it before they run markets up into end of months....
So lets see... I'm going to hold rest of shorts until I get a buy signal on markets - as we still may head lower today.
I took a short silver position yesterday - lets see how this plays out.
Sometimes we think that its a "bottom" and sometimes we think its a top, but we really need to see some confirmations and some signs that its true , and thats why I will be waiting for the FIRST buy signal in markets before exiting my shorts.
ReplyDeleteMarkets still in a downtrend and no signs yet of strengths... so thats just what I am saying - best way to play it , be patience and make a lot of money on both sites $$$
I had to wait until I saw this morning's open to map out today's moves. I see it confirmed now.
ReplyDeleteFirst of all and most importantly the bottom was in yesterday for SPX. Already confirmed!
We go to 1325 first, then drop to 1310 on Euro stress tests, the debt ceiling comes out intraday and rocket to close 1335 or better today!!!!!!!
For Silver I see point 9 at SLV $35.80 coming today.
ReplyDeleteI will cover Silver shorts and switch to some long Silver at that time.
SPX going to near 1325 this morning.
ReplyDeleteSPX drops to near 1310, Silver hits point 9.
SPX closes at 1335 or better today on debt ceiling news!!!!!!!!!!
Hello,
ReplyDeletewhat time do you expect the debt ceiling news to be released (time)?
All I can say on timing is that I feel strongly that the debt ceiling news comes out late in the day but before the close today.
ReplyDeleteobama was saying he's giving them until the weekend to come up with something. Is it possible we get it before market open on monday?
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeletewhen do you expect this drop to happen with SLV today? considering Obama comment last night.
Thanks!
I think it's a done deal. This is so typical. They always play these timing games to keep everyone off balance. They say the weekend, then they do it just before.
ReplyDeleteSilver should plunge later today. Probably mid-day.
Thanks SC, appreciate your response. Just curious how you came up with $35.80 for silver
ReplyDeleteFor Silver it is a trendline backtest.
ReplyDeleteFinancials weaker. So it does look like we can see just a couple points lower than yesterday, near 1303 looks about right, then rally to 1325.
silver in postive 38.73
ReplyDeleteHow choppy are these markets, it's crazy stuff.
ReplyDeleteYes really choppy. I plan to be a heavy buyer SPX 1303-1306 for a move to 1325 or so.
ReplyDeletePicked up some SP at 1307.42 on futures, will wait to buy more if it drops down to the 1303-1305 area. Looks to be well supported in this area, let's see what happens.
ReplyDeleteIt's a wild market SC that's for sure.
If the debt ceiling news is not releashed today do we hold silver short until monday?
ReplyDeleteI have a plan for Silver. I does look like it is about to see a moderate drop here 50-70 cents.
ReplyDeleteSC, are you long ES here ?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Muzz, no matter how it gyrates around here the roadmap above looks good.
ReplyDeletesilver in postive 38.825, even with 50 to 70 cent drop, still around 38ish. SC do you still thinking 35ish will happen today?
ReplyDeleteSqroot, No I am being picky waiting for near 1303 SPX. I will be heavy buyer there.
ReplyDeleteEverything the same:
I see SPX 1303-1325-1310-1330+
I agree SC I think the map looks good.
ReplyDeleteSC if gold gets to 1600-1608 area and silver to around $40 by the 21st or so as your cycles indicate, this may be an absolutely fantastic shorting opportunity for the PM. It may be a very lucrative trade indeed.
Obama talking:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.whitehouse.gov/live
i am having trouble seeing silver drop so suddenly after its souring right now. maybe a light pull back near day end to still close near high. are you still bearish on silver for today?
ReplyDeleteFor Silver I see a moderate drop now, will take it from there. I am getting the impression may have to wait for Monday for the larger plunge.
ReplyDeleteIt seems Silver wants to go just above yesterday's high, then the plunge starts.
ReplyDeletePut it this way the Silver plunge should start today, the debate is whether it finishes today or Monday at point 9.
A lot can happen in this mkt in a day.
question about this silver plunge, would it be a 1 day thing and next day we bounce to point 10? Or everything would happen in 1 day kind of thing?
ReplyDeleteMy thinking is that the move to 9 happens extremely fast. The move up from 9 to 10 might be more of a slower grind several days.
ReplyDeleteThinking they still playing poker right now...Obama just give out the buzz to have them all report back within 24 to 36 hours.
ReplyDelete39$ silver and rising...
Stay tuned, in the next hour I am anticipating a pattern to confirm whether the Silver plunge can finish today.
ReplyDeleteI think it can!!!
SC, do you mean a silver plunge finishing today and then a grind up to point 10 next week or a finishing of a confirmation pattern that would lead to a plunge Monday?
ReplyDeletelooks like the price is sliding again for silver, 38.815 and going.
ReplyDeletewild snake this morning.
Looks to me SPX heading to 1325 now, drop to 1303, then over 1330.
ReplyDeleteLix, I think Silver plunges to hit point 9 today.
ReplyDeletesilver does look heavy right here. Hopefully we'll see a nice decline. Went long spx earlier.
ReplyDeletei believe Silver will drop alittle today but not sure about 35.8. Seems to far fetched to me in short amount of time, but i seen markets do crazier things...lol lets wait and see.
ReplyDeleteMassively short Silver! This could be one heck of a day...
ReplyDeletecome down! the bill must be paid!
ReplyDeleteHi, first time poster but been reading this for a while. Interesting posts SC, thanks.
ReplyDeleteAm I right in saying that you are calling around 36 in SLV which would be about 37 in Silver? Just clarifying for some other posters!
Yes, looking for SLV to hit $35.80 before the close today.
ReplyDeleteThanks
where do u see the price of GOLD?
ReplyDeleteGold Today? I'm short Gold as well, probably cover that too at the same time as Silver.
ReplyDeleteIs there a report/news coming out from now to market close, that will trigger a massive selloff in silver at days end?
ReplyDeleteI think debt ceiling is a done deal. They didn't want to show their cards, and so have been saying the weekend. It comes out today imo before the close.
ReplyDeleteCome on JP Morgan, pull the trigger ;)
ReplyDeleteSo the dollar should rise initially on the news and then fall. It is a non-crisis when you think about it because they have been borrowing for years. It is status quo so the dollar rise only temporary. Falls soon after.
ReplyDeleteIf we dip, this may be the contributor: We want to make you aware of a new development as it relates to our metals offering in the United States. As mentioned in our prior communications, we will be closing any open metals positions at approximately 2:00pm (ET) tomorrow, Friday, July 15. This account maintenance will proceed as planned. However, we have been reviewing the possibility of launching unleveraged metals trading in the near future. While it is possible that we will elect not to proceed with it, we are continually striving to provide our clients with a full suite of desired products. If you still wish to trade unleveraged metals, you may consider maintaining your FOREX.com account so that if the situation changes, you can begin trading metals without delay. We will update you with any new developments.
ReplyDeletesilver stuck at 39.0-38.8;
ReplyDeletelets see what happens around 2:30pm. If it doesn't start then we might have to wait until Monday.
ReplyDelete@choppy, from observing it previously, when silver is in a tight range, like this, it normally bursts out... which direction though?!
ReplyDeleteMy bet is both. Silver surges up a little with a quick burst, and then plunges.
ReplyDeleteI'm quite sure confirmed that plunge coming today!
Thanks SC. You seem very confident, thats good to know. cheers
ReplyDeleteThere it goes, quick burst. Oh boy, get your seatbelts on!!!!!!!
ReplyDeletei think we have to wait for monday
ReplyDeleteSLV pushing for the blue sky again...
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry to say that I think SC has it all wrong. Silver and gold have never looked so bullish and I cannot find a single reason why there should be a correction, let alone a "crash".
ReplyDeleteSPX to touch near 1303 soon imo. Looking for a close above 1335.
ReplyDeleteSilver to plummet to point 9.
>Silver to plummet to point 9.
ReplyDelete@SC: Today? Thanks for your work. Great to trade with someone that really puts his money where his mouth is.
@Nifty Check Marc Faber
ReplyDeletehttp://financialsurvivalradio.com/
Yes, today!
ReplyDeletecan you repeat that again, SC? :)
ReplyDeleteNifty I have to disagree and say SC is correct, the PM are due for a good correction. I think that in the long term the PM will rocket up but IMHO we have to go through a deflationary spiral first before the hyperinflation scenario kicks in. After all the PM are an inflation hedge. Time will tell but I see this happening.
ReplyDeleteSC, point 9 will be the call of all calls if you nail it. I can only see a slight pull back from here.
ReplyDeleteSC, is it possible to skip point 9 and go to point 10, then plummet?
ReplyDeleteNo TC, no skipping allowed in the symmetry.
ReplyDeleteCould the drop yesterday count for point 9?
ReplyDeleteThought about that myself, came to conclusion no. The move was too small.
ReplyDeleteSC, how high is your conviction on silver? I agree since I can't imagine silver going on a rampage without QE3 announced...just my take, but wondering how high this conviction ranks on your list.
ReplyDeleteVery high. SPX doesn't seem to want to come down any further. May be on the way up now.
ReplyDeleteAs much as I'd love to see silver plummet before my weekend begins, I can't see it happening today. There's under an hour of trading left and by this time on a Friday, most have packed up and gone home.
ReplyDeleteFriday afternoons are always quiet!
Until last week, Firdays have generally been down days, I picked the wrong week to go short!
Hope we get a Sunday night raid...
NYMEX already closed; no volume left to do any serious damage
ReplyDelete@Bob, globex still open and still damaging shorts!
ReplyDeleteThey have to wait for some news release to have ''good reason''
ReplyDeleteSelling ZSL in 5 minutes...
ReplyDeleteGLD now up 9 days in a row. I probably need to roll my Sept. PUT it it keeps climbing :)
ReplyDeleteIf they announce a budget agreement over the weekend ,we'll be up 300 pts on Monday,and gold and silver will join the party. Watch for SPX 1370(cash) as resistance...or support if we run up well past it any time this week.
ReplyDeletecantdrive55,
ReplyDeleteI thought the uncertainty behind debt ceiling talks created drove gold to all time high and taken silver along for the ride. Why would gold and silver also go up if the uncertainty is removed?
@cantdrive, the contrarian argument is that when the budget agreement is announced the metals will pull back due to the stronger dollar.
ReplyDeleteI know that a ceiling raise is as good as QE, but with the whiff of an agreement yesterday, the prices fell.
Some would argue its priced in already.
However, as this blog is based on cyclical market theory, that shouldn't make a difference. The metals, mainly silver, have had a sharp and fast ride up. That leaves a fall due in my book.
Well, gold is just plain on a roll as it's sought after now no matter what the market does. Silver probably got way oversold and is still on it's own rebound.And you notice oil is almost back to $100.This is a market that likes these asset classes to stay high with it.I'd say oil,gold and silver are all higher at SPX 1400. Lets say we sold off all the way back down to SPX 1200. Betcha oil,gold and silver would be lower there. You remember silver,oil and even gold backed off pretty good when we just had our correction to SPX 1260 recently. So....everything is running in tandem now.Higher market = higher oil,gold and silver.Any single trading day in the next 2 weeks could start another explosive move.
ReplyDeleteSC can you make an update on silver over this weekend with charts ?
ReplyDeleteThanks
@ JollyRodger,
ReplyDeleteWe'll see,and of course he may be right. Lots of good theories after a whiplash week like this. But lets just say gold goes back to $1400. I'm thinking thats SPX 1260 again. $1700/1725 gold..I'm thinking the DJIA and SPX rallies too.Whatever happens,lets hope there is some trend and follow thru days next week,instead of all the whipsaw we had this week.Much easier environment to make money in.
@cantdrive,
ReplyDeleteI just believe nothing goes up in a straight line, I think that SC is onto something but perhaps over confident in calling a sharp drop today, although, I doubt anyone would have been surprised had it happened!
The higher close above 39 is bullish for gold and that it closed on the high of the day too. I wouldnt be surprised to see silver head for 39.50 and the higher goes, the less harsh the fall..
I now doubt we'll see 33 silver again. or 1400 gold. I'm no expert but I don't believe its silver to the moon just yet!
@ Jollyrodger,
ReplyDeleteWe'll see. I'll be checking in to see SC's comments.Personally I'm more interested in where the market and the S&P goes from here. Was hoping for an OPEX selloff today but GOOG earnings stopped that in it's tracks with move back to 600.Amazing. Up 70 in one session.Not a good omen for bears. And AAPL at an all time high of 365. So I"m on 1370 watch. Or...below 1300 watch ,if it's so inclined.
There will be an update on the weekend to outline in detail what to expect next week for both SPX and Silver. Everything moves together, that is correct, as I'll show. The devil is in the details as always.
ReplyDeleteMy positions and opinion remain the same. I can see everything confirming nicely, but ran out of time today. That's ok, and looking forward to next week.
Rest easy Silver bears - enjoy the weekend!
PS - unlikely to see the budget deal this weekend.
ReplyDeleteIm with Bob on this. The uncertainty of the debt ceiling talks IS the main driver behind the new highs in gold and the breakout in silver. And if any of you are doubting this just think for a minute what is at stake.
ReplyDeleteWe are talking about the AAA rating of the USA which makes investing in US Treasury Bonds the best and safest investment in the WORLD. Which makes the Dollar King. Default for the USA has very different implications then default for Greece and if the Dollar goes down so does the world.
Im surprised silver isn't trading much higher when you think of how serious this is. On the flip side if and when the debt ceiling is raised and the US/media emphasizes once again that it is the safest place to keep money I can see Gold correcting hard and Silver plunging to new lows.
With Silver, I dont see it coming back once its taken out and shot dead.
Good trading all.
Hi SC:
ReplyDeleteWhere do think the Euro is headed next week (and intermediate term) if a debt ceiling deal is cut early next week? I would imagine it headed up as the dollar would come under pressure but am just not sure. Thanks tons for all your updates.
Feels like my recent early short of SPY all over again :)
ReplyDeleteWith regards to silver and gold, remember that those pulling the strings behind the scenes absolutely do not want this thing rocketing up uncontrollably.
ReplyDeleteBob, that's how I felt, so I went the other way and went with some calls. Bears tried hard four times today to take it down and resistance held. With earnings next week, debt ceiling resolution likely, I think we'll see a spike. I plan on riding a rally, then loading up on puts for a grand fall.
ReplyDeleteSC whats your target for the lows in the 6 months?
ReplyDeleteBobR,
ReplyDeleteThe currency picture is an important part of understanding the dynamics of this budget/debt ceiling deal. I will have some specific comments on the Euro/dollar coming.
Sami,
The current bull/bear traps are soon going to increase dramatically in size. Right now we are seeing 50-100 point swings. That will increase soon to 150-200 point swings. I have found it best to focus on each leg at a time rather than get too far ahead of the mkt. Your question is a good one, and I'll answer that more directly soon.
Let me just say for now it is too early to be overly bearish....
SC, I really appreciate your work and the time you spend sharing your analysis. However, I don't understand how one minute are so confident and precise in your predictions (like on Friday afternoon) and then with your comment above about 200 point swings, answering 'soon' (from previous posts that's normally after the fact) and finally to say not be overly bearish.
ReplyDeleteDid you not say you were 'massively short silver'?
I don't wish to disrespect you, I feel silver is due a drop too. I made that decision before I started posting here and on my own. However from the sound of it there are people here making decisions on your analysis, which in itself seems as volatile as silver.
JollyRodger,
ReplyDeleteI assumed Sami was asking about the S&P rather than Silver.
I am massively short Silver and expecting a large drop early next week to near $35.70 for SLV. After that I see a rise to $39, and then a major dive to $27 by the time estimate of Aug 10-11.
So in terms of Silver, yes, I am extremely bearish this summer.
For SPX the roadmap on the chart above remains the same. So I am much more bearish on Silver than SPX between now and Aug 11 in percentage terms.
ReplyDeleteThank you for clarifing that difference.
Thank YOU SC for clarifying it.
ReplyDeleteI apologise for misunderstanding!
Thanks tons SC.
ReplyDeleteThere is nothing to apologize for, and I agree. My expectations were too high for Friday. After careful review I can see clearly that early this week is the more precise timing.
ReplyDelete