Pages

Monday, November 20, 2017

XIV - Parabolic Move Ending at Resistance!

The parabolic move for XIV is almost over.  Price is reaching into overthrow territory.  It may become grossly overbought by reaching the orange trendline before turning down.

The "Trump trade" is coming to it's end.  The parabola, of course, will end very badly. 

Daily Chart

206 comments:

  1. with a chart like this we ar talking uvxy at 10
    or lower

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't think so. It came close to the orange line in October. So it's getting very top heavy already.

      Delete
  2. XIV may become grossly overbought which would be the perfect setup for the bears.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Turquoise trendline support is a long way down at $88.

    ReplyDelete
  4. SC - so 2560 first and then bounce for VIX to get grossly overbought?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SPX 2,560 and then might touch 2,600 if that.

      Delete
  5. thanks sorry meant XIV to overbought. Makes sense like you said UVXY to 17 and then grind lower to 15 again.

    ReplyDelete
  6. We'll see about XIV it might just see a few more dollars and just flatline before it collapses. It is looking heavy.

    ReplyDelete
  7. SPX 2,560, then 2,600, then 2,480.

    ReplyDelete
  8. sox breaking out not long before other index move up

    ReplyDelete
  9. curtesy of bradley gungeon bluestarmarkettimer
    Brad Gudgeon
    2:46 PM (2 minutes ago)

    to bcc: clist
    The SPX is getting way overbought, going sideways today and this is not good. It looks like a bear flag in development. The Mars sq. Pluto signature usually means a top and down for a couple of days. I think longs should be liquidated and one should go short here probably into Wednesday. We should get a bear bounce into the following Monday I think.


    GDX is in no man's land: sideways with no discernible direction.

    ReplyDelete
  10. SC….you keep raising the level of the parabolic overthrow for XIV all the while holding UVXY. I don’t get it.

    ReplyDelete
  11. The strategy is to slowly scale into UVXY. I plan to increase one more batch, but it's best to space it out and will wait for December now to add.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. at what price would you add more uvxy your thoughts

      Delete
    2. I'll likely wait for the first week of December. Lower the better. XIV has a good shot of reaching the orange line.

      Delete
  12. SC, SP is at 2091, do you think it will still pull back to 2060 or go straight to 2600? by the way, by 2060, you mean around 2060 or 2060s? What is your target for 2600? This number has been floating for almost a year, finally it is around it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, it broke out so expect a small pullback for SPX here to 2,585, and up to 2,625.

      Delete
  13. Guessing that you make your third lot purchase of UVXY at a price of 11 and assuming each lot is equal, you need a 46.5% gain just to breakeven at a price 16.11. UVXY is getting hammered again in premarket; maybe in the 12’s by the end of the day and 11 next week. My guess is that you will be lucky to break even in the next market down wave. I don’t understand why you are messing with UVXY when your analysis of XIV has been spot on. XIV has gained 26% (and still rising) since you sold. There will be a time to speculate on UVXY but not in the near future

    ReplyDelete
  14. We are coming up to a major turn date December 10th. I am assuming UVXY comes lower, and plan to increase my position first week of December.

    I expect to make between 30% to 50% on the UVXY position with a target of $22 to $25 and estimate that will take 30 to 60 days.

    Yes, the market can rise for a few weeks, but then it'll drop for a few months...

    ReplyDelete
  15. I identified early in the year that XIV was likely configuring to make a parabolic move up. That has occurred, and it is approaching exhaustion. The last few days XIV has very extreme gap ups which tells me this move is in the terminating phase.

    I chose not to play this move because it's just too dangerous. When XIV turns down it'll freefall with no warning and trap those who are in it. So I don't play that game. Have a look at my post about Issac Newton and the South Sea bubble.

    When XIV is back down to reasonable levels in the $80's I will be looking at it again for a bounce.

    ReplyDelete
  16. UVXY has tested the pink line as shown on the chart of November 6th, 2017.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Turn date is due yesterday November 21st, and next turn date coming due on Monday November 27th. Expect chop and a dip around Monday. The major date to watch for the top is around December 10th in my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. sc at what price will you be adding more on uvxy
      your thoughts

      Delete
    2. The fact is UVXY is holding very strong. Only down $2 in the last month. It just needs a little time to flatten out. Two weeks it'll be ready. $12

      Delete
  18. Sc when u expecting uvxy to be 24. What will be spx be then after that r u expecting another high

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There should be two tops in this topping process. One is forming now over the next couple weeks. Low due January/February target 2,470 SPX. The second top finishing April/May. Some markets will top now, with a lower high in April. Other markets may see a higher high in April.

      Delete
  19. https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2014/01/uvxy-reverse-split/

    ReplyDelete
  20. There's the dip! Right on schedule.

    November 22, 2017 at 6:47 AM

    "Turn date is due yesterday November 21st, and next turn date coming due on Monday November 27th. Expect chop and a dip around Monday. The major date to watch for the top is around December 10th in my opinion"

    ReplyDelete
  21. XIV approaching the orange line. It's getting close. Steaming full speed ahead into the iceberg. When it strikes it'll sink like the titanic.

    ReplyDelete
  22. What are you expecting the price of uvxy to be as on Dec 10 since you stated the top.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe he said he would add more at 12 in 2 weeks

      Delete
  23. UVXY 11.67 next, then even lower.

    ReplyDelete
  24. "Be Careful November 15, 2017 at 8:02 AM
    6 week rally ahead, preparing now."

    "Be Careful November 16, 2017 at 11:16 AM
    Tomorrow first close in 2600s. S&P 2557 was a major bottom. Revise: UVXY 13, then under 10 easily..and shortly."

    "Be Careful October 6, 2017 at 11:11 AM
    S&P 2508 to hold rest of year. Easy, without a doubt. UVXY is to be shorted, only. Do not go long UVXY. Do not."

    ReplyDelete
  25. lol wow already at SC's 2625 target. wonder how much more is left? 2640?

    ReplyDelete
  26. SPX up 50 points since the Oct 24th Top Call

    ReplyDelete
  27. somthing weird going on with market

    ReplyDelete
  28. The reason UVXY popped today is it broke out above the blue line on the chart.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. are you expecting higher levels in shortterm on uvxy or you are still looking to add at 12

      Delete
    2. dow transports up huge and nasdaq and sox getting smacked

      Delete
    3. Still expect UVXY a little lower. Turn date December 10th. XIV not quite overbought but it's getting close.

      Delete
  29. XIV is incredibly weak, volume rapidly drying up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC any target for SPX by Dec 10?

      Delete
    2. If SPX tumbles tomorrow it won't see much higher. It's basically over.

      Delete
  30. Bitcoin $11,000! I'm turning bearish on bitcoin. Near top and deep correction for several months next.

    SCNovember 15, 2017 at 11:41 AM

    "Bitcoin has tripled since my bullish call in July. At that time the talk was all about bitcoin crashing. The talk is still about it being a ponzi. Guess what more upside..."

    SCJuly 7, 2017 at 6:18 PM

    "I could see bitcoin coming down a little more this summer, but I think up for 6 to 8 months looks possible."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Down it goes! Bitcoin drops 18%!!

      Delete
    2. market up big uvxy up big not making much sense

      Delete
  31. Spx up 75 pts since the top call on oct 24th. How are you trading this?

    ReplyDelete
  32. I'm not trading SPX at all. Blow off top. Interesting that VIX is up strongly today and coiling for a big move.

    ReplyDelete
  33. It gets frothy at major tops.

    ReplyDelete
  34. I'm still waiting for about December 10th.

    ReplyDelete
  35. are you buying more uvxy or are you waiting for dec 10

    ReplyDelete
  36. UVXY collapse next! Must align on downside with S&P 2700. UVXY gap downs next few days, naturally. Do not buy it.

    ReplyDelete
  37. https://fat-pitch.blogspot.co.il/2017/11/a-cautionary-signal-after-todays-strong.html

    ReplyDelete
  38. Wait, was uvxy supposed to gap down or up?
    So many opinions, so much risk, but $12.90 seemed like a bargain too good to pass up...especially today...Thank you, Congress!!!

    ReplyDelete
  39. Bulls are trapped. Waiting for the panic to take profit!

    SCNovember 22, 2017 at 6:39 AM

    "I identified early in the year that XIV was likely configuring to make a parabolic move up. That has occurred, and it is approaching exhaustion. The last few days XIV has very extreme gap ups which tells me this move is in the terminating phase.

    I chose not to play this move because it's just too dangerous. When XIV turns down it'll freefall with no warning and trap those who are in it."

    ReplyDelete
  40. SC do you feel that uvxy dropped back down to 12 by December 10th or should we be adding more to the position here

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The panic won't happen for weeks yet, so UVXY will likely consolidate for a few weeks. Should have a chance in the $13's doubt $12's.

      Delete
    2. now where at 12.75 what will be your entry your thoughts

      Delete
  41. You don’t think buying UVXY at 21.85 and watching it drop to the 13’s waiting for a panic is dangerous?

    ReplyDelete
  42. Short term normally VIX grinds higher for a few days next then cools off and consolidates before the next spike up. A lot of damage done. The golden cross is imminent for VIX.

    SCNovember 20, 2017 at 6:45 AM

    "VIX looking very strong. Golden cross coming soon."

    ReplyDelete
  43. It's gonna close green, isn't it. Uncanny.

    ReplyDelete
  44. I have to ask, what is average cost of UVXY for everyone so far?

    ReplyDelete
  45. UVXY...in at $12.90...out at $16.50. Only buy it when RSI 5 is oversold; otherwise, NEVER touch it. Had similar setup a few weeks back for 20% one-day gain. Always SELL on a big bounce...because it doesn't last in today's market.
    Good chance we saw SP500 low today--analysis at http://www.pretzelcharts.com/

    ReplyDelete
  46. I'm still waiting for some time in December to add to the position. Can UVXY see a lower low in December? Yes it can, but my model says not by much. I'm expecting to exit UVXY around $25 next 45 days with a panic selloff. The panic is weeks away though, quite possibly not until January.

    ReplyDelete
  47. SC, what is your view on Bitcoin and Cyrpto currency in general? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bitcoin is a proxy for excessive global liquidity. We are seeing widespread movement away from the traditional economic system and governments. However, Bitcoin is correlated with the stock market and so it is not a currency at all nor a safe haven. People are attempting to look for alternatives to the current economic system. However bitcoin is ahead of its time and not likely to last. As the liquidity dries up so will bitcoin.

      Delete
    2. Thanks SC. But I see lot of traditional investors are not buying Crypto craze but somehow it has still outperformed every other investment. Bitcoin, if you compare as a bubble has outpaced all the bubbles in the history..that too without support of main stream investors, which is very unique...will see how this whole thing play out in coming months...but I am with you on Bitcoin.

      Delete
  48. Revise, I concede that S&P 2582 gap may be a target in the new year.

    ReplyDelete
  49. I read an article about Gold.

    http://www.gorket.com/2017/12/04/gold-shorts-plunge-to-5-year-lows/

    Could you update your view about Gold? What is the relationship between Gold and Bitcoin? It seem they coupled together though.

    ReplyDelete
  50. sc is 12.80 a buy or we waiting for dec10 your thoughts

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'll wait but it is looking excellent!

      Delete
  51. Hi SC
    good time to buy UVXY or will it go lower
    thanks for all your hard work

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Almost ready my friend! I've started to build a position and will increase soon. The moment we have been patiently waiting for... It's going to be incredible!!!

      Delete
    2. hopefully it moves before the split

      Delete
    3. sc you should of loaded up there i bought 12.78

      Delete
  52. thank you SC ...
    yes been waiting patiently ... I can't wait ,,, :-)

    ReplyDelete
  53. 30 November was a Bradley Siderograph day...depending on what chart you use. Coincidence? Hmmm....

    ReplyDelete
  54. Another close in the red for SPX...

    ReplyDelete
  55. Huge SPY buying on weakness at S&P 2605 and 2639. That is not bad news. Accumulation for ______.

    ReplyDelete
  56. SPX down yet again! New downtrend established!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC, what's the low for SPX in your opinion in the next week or so? I assume you are expecting a bounce into the holidays and the lower still in Jan. Thx

      Delete
    2. Currently SPX is forming a high. Model shows chop but relatively quiet. There will be another plunge for SPX later this month similar to Friday. SPX 2,580 this month possible with 2,480 target in January.

      Delete
    3. I'm looking a XIV swing trade before Christmas, what would be a good entry point given SPX dips under 2,600? Thx

      Delete
    4. I'm expecting a quiet month in December. True, XIV should grind up towards $125, but that is not appealing enough for a swing. Once XIV drops into the $80's I would be interested in a swing, but doubt that happens until January.

      Delete
  57. Bitcoin cannot be defined as a bubble. The reason is price builds for decades leading into a bubble. Bitcoin has no history.

    Gold is the opposite. The most history of any asset.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC, that makes no cents to me....Bubbles are not defined by price builds but by panic thinking of I don't want to miss out....mania and of course fed interest rate fixing help to boot

      Delete
    2. I see no bubble yet, but true that Bitcoin is fueled by monetary policy.

      Delete
  58. Before say somethhing, thanks SC.
    You also do some research about gold?
    thanks for all

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you! I remain bearish on Gold. Eventually Gold will be interesting.

      Delete
  59. No bubble but Bitcoin deep correction or crash coming soon. A crescendo of panic buying is occurring coinciding into my December 10th turn date.

    ReplyDelete
  60. are we able to short Bitcoin if that were the cause ?
    thanks SC ....
    keep us updated thanks for all your time and hard work
    :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No reason to short something difficult like bitcoin when we have an easy to short XIV right in front of us.

      Delete
    2. Sc you taking any uvxy here at 12.53 your thoughts

      Delete
  61. Bought uvxy pre-market 1247 anybody buying and uvxy here at this level

    ReplyDelete
  62. Still not following the logic behind holding UVXY (since September) while dismissing XIV. Today is the last trading day before your December 10th (??Sunday??) turn date. Will be curious to find out what your next move will be.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Beautiful! Price coming into the turn date exactly where it should be!!

    SCNovember 26, 2017 at 9:18 AM

    "The fact is UVXY is holding very strong. Only down $2 in the last month. It just needs a little time to flatten out. Two weeks it'll be ready. $12"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC - excellent calls. slightly confused. You are buying UVXY here at 12 - but don't expect any fireworks until january?

      Delete
    2. Thank you! The top for XIV forming now. Before the fireworks in January I expect the top to finish with a lower high.

      Delete
    3. So I am building the position now and plan to exit only on a panic.

      Delete
  64. UVXY looking more tempting for a short-term play...RSI 5 on daily is getting into oversold. Risk is next week's FOMC meeting, elections, OpEx... 14 Dec is another Bradley Siderograph date...depending on chart used. Coincidence? Hmmm...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for the knowledge. I don't like trading this around OPEX though.

      Delete
  65. Stop insulting dogs!!! :)

    https://www.stocksplithistory.com/?symbol=uvxy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. John I trade in and out just got caught i have an average price 12.85 alot of shares

      Delete
    2. Good luck with it Louis!! I was burned on the VXX stove a while back.

      Delete
  66. No sign of SC buying UVXY at the “beautiful price” on the turn date. Can’t be to encouraging for anyone holding a long position in volatility.

    ReplyDelete
  67. sc you still plan averaging in to uvxy your thoughts and thanks

    ReplyDelete
  68. is any body buying this uvxy here looks like a disaster right now lol

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, waiting for $10 uvxy.

      Otherwse will wait for the split.

      Delete
    2. Small position at 11.28 near the bell. Still holding a medium position from $20 (augg).

      Delete
  69. https://www.topdowncharts.com/single-post/2017/12/12/Expect-more-volatility

    ReplyDelete
  70. XIV just now getting overbought and it's happening right on the turn date!

    SCNovember 29, 2017 at 10:04 AM

    "Still expect UVXY a little lower. Turn date December 10th. XIV not quite overbought but it's getting close."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. sc just curious on your thoughts will this panic happen after split or before

      Delete
  71. Wow…..another 6% loss for UVXY. I hope anybody that is modeling SC’s portfolio has deep pockets because the losses to date are staggering.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I have a small position in XIV. SC’s analysis has been spot on regarding XIV. I don’t understand why he has not traded as such. We are in a big booming bull market and trying to time the top is a fool’s game especially trading something as volatile as UVXY which has a half-life shorter than most sub-atomic particles

      Delete
  72. UVXY looking quite good! At the current price short term upside potential 100% with long term estimated at 620%.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, panics are coming. Huge UVXY spike in January and another February.

      Delete
  73. If the spot price on the VIX and the short term VIX futures remain in a contango situation UVXY will continue its decline. A short term gain of 100% and a long term gain of 620% in UVXY will require volatility to spike and hold such that the market condition on the VIX and VIX futures reverses into backwardation. Just stare at a long term chart of UVXY and then ask yourself if there is any hope of a long term gain

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Recount, you are absolutely correct. One shouldn't buy-and hold UVXY. It is a Trader's game. Not an investor's game. Trade what is in front of you.

      Delete
  74. UVXY will not double from here, absolutely not. That is a certainty.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. maybe not but 15 could see with no problem

      Delete
  75. UVXY...buying today in low $11s and adding tomorrow if lower. Short term play only...one or two days. Just for FUN -- Merry Christmas!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UVXY likely to pop into $12's this week.

      Delete
  76. XIV is forming major top. However it is struggling and only overbought for 2 days. It should be overbought for 2 weeks before the panic.

    ReplyDelete
  77. It's all in the math:

    Theoretically, if you invested in UVXY or SVXY on September 2, 2008, and sold on December 1, 2008, these would be your results.

    UVXY: 1079.42%

    SVXY: -79.87%.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC you are right about the rocket ride for the UVXY in the time frame sited but if you bought XIV on 12/1/2008 and held it until today you would be up 7035%. Its all in the math.

      Delete
    2. The figures were posted simply because the parabolic model shows a drop for XIV of 72.6% which compares with the simulated 79% drop in XIV in the 2008 time frame. We are approaching a move similar in magnitude according to the model.

      Delete
    3. Recount,

      XIV didn't exist n 2008.

      Lowest it ever got was around $5 in Oct 2011 and now up 2300%....not sure where your figures are coming from

      Delete
    4. The Intelligent Investor Blog has historical data and pricing model since VIX futures are available (2004).
      http://investing.kuchita.com/2014/05/07/uvxy-historical-data-and-pricing-mod
      Shows how VXX, VIXY, XIV, SVXY, UVXY and TVIX are calculated and you can download an Excel spreadsheet with all the calculations

      Delete
    5. Payday; I do not think UVXY and SVXY traded in 2008 either. My records show UVXY and SVXY started trading on 10/4/11, XIV started trading on 11/30/10. The calculations are an estimate on how UVXY, SVXY and XIV would have responded in 2008 using VIX futures at that time.

      Delete
  78. "BREAKING: Bitcoin futures briefly halted after plunging 10%"

    ReplyDelete
  79. bought more at $11.05...it may flush lower with OpEx, but will just be another reason to buy once more...for a short-duration...based on 14 Dec Bradley VooDoo and RSI 5, seemed like a bargain...Merry Christmas!

    ReplyDelete
  80. UVXY at 9.xx very soon. Best case scenario in future is 14-16 as a top.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. hope not nine i do believe 15 16 coming thou

      Delete
  81. XIV has met all criteria for a panic. Both daily and weekly charts overbought. Most importantly weekly grossly overbought starting in October.

    It won't last much longer. No trading. Hold for the panic selloff.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Orange XIV resistance has been hit.

      Delete
    2. Since July Vix only down one single day lower in November. Vix has been rising since November.

      Delete
  82. XIV as low as $66 possible short term.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Tax reform vote next week. Probably fails on the first vote.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. hope that happens quick smack down to 2600

      Delete
  84. UVXY was a tad disappointing today, but WOW, look at how well RUT has been tracking with Bradley dates! Merry Christmas!

    ReplyDelete
  85. UVXY 10.20-10.40 today, then lower....lower...lower..and lower.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How many do you want and are you shorting it

      Delete
  86. sc since xiv blasted through 125 uptrend line how high do you think it is going


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just an overthrow. It'll collapse.

      Delete
  87. ...and that's why they invented Stop Loss. Out of all shares at $10.85...win some, lose some.
    Fortunately, was away and not tempted to buy more...recommend all heed the great and powerful Be Careful's advice...Merry Christmas!

    ReplyDelete
  88. Next major UVXY rally will stop around 14.30 top. You might get 9.50+ to 12+ in very near term.

    ReplyDelete
  89. XIV is at $134. XIV is heading for the $60's.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You know I'm going to quote this. Merry Christmas!

      Delete
    2. also the question is is uvxy going to split first
      your thoughts i have 28000 shares average 11.80

      Delete
    3. "28000 shares average 11.80"
      I hope it all goes well for you, that is a substantial position.

      Delete
    4. I've done well with xiv i belive uvxy will tag 15 at some point

      Delete
    5. There is a tom demark 13 pont sell signal on spx monthly

      Delete
  90. XIV $90 first in 3 weeks and it'll consolidate at that level then down into the $60's. No split.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. that would be awsome that would be 16 like i thought
      cha ching merry xmas

      Delete
    2. $60 XIV is over 50% drop and translates to $50-60 UVXY...that seems ambitious although your XIV analysis has been spot on this year! Well done!

      Are you saying no XIV split or no UVXY split?

      Delete
    3. Thank you. XIV is trading into an important high. Upside is little relative to the downside. It may rise further, but it is getting quite overextended. Once it exhausts it will freefall. It's best to take things one step at a time. The weekly shows a large drop coming. It will be apparent how deep it drops, and we will update as it unfolds.

      Delete
    4. The splits are not important. I doubt UVXY splits now. I say this because time is running out.

      Delete
    5. There is no support for XIV until $100. The white line that is the level to watch first in my opinion.

      Delete
  91. Front month is failing off, the future decay will not sensitive to downside, but upside, at for next two weeks. we have good chance to pick 20% gain here. Buy rumor and sell on news not mention possible surprise. Merry Xmas! Be nimble!

    ReplyDelete
  92. SC; In your February 18, 2017 update you presented the SPX-2017 Top Detailed Model with the SPX trading at 2351. The same model appears in the 10/24/2017 update with SPX trading at 2565. You are carrying a huge loss in UVXY front running a top that has yet to occur. Today, the SPX is kissing 2700, what makes you so confident that this time you are right.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is a fair point. The SPX analysis I showed early in the year showed further upside. I recognize the SPX targets were conservative. Better to be conservative than too aggressive approaching a major top. The October SPX chart shows a decline into March of 2018. So let's evaluate in February.

      For XIV the analysis has been quite accurate, and so that gives me confidence as to the next moves.

      Delete
  93. RUT moving up, as predicted by Bradley Dates. Coincidence? Hmmm...
    As far as UVXY, remember the handsome and powerful Be Careful's warning...and keep in mind...all models are wrong, some are useful...Merry Christmas!

    ReplyDelete
  94. It is never good to have all bears on a blog. That is why I appreciate the trader ( Be Careful ) that being said, we are getting closer for a modest correction. Not a full blown crash. All the best every one.

    ReplyDelete
  95. UVXY won't go above 17.xx this winter, fact.
    In the near term just getting 12 to 13s will be quite a task. Not good, not good at all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bears would be pleased with a 70% run-up in UVXY from this level.

      Delete
  96. I disagree I believe uvxy will tag 14 1/2 to 15 possibly higher right now I own 38,000 shares of which 10,000 shares I bought at 9.92

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We are getting into holiday trading soon. So I can't say I expect much right now.

      XIV may stay overbought for a few weeks longer but it will exhaust on this move. The slope is steeper this month for XIV than the September and October run. Telltale sign of exhaustion. The drop for XIV will be a violent move once it exhausts.

      Delete
    2. The slope for XIV is currently the same as the July run. It exhausted and collapsed in August.

      Delete
  97. Potentially bullish, short-term, Morning Star forming on UVXY...but only if it closes higher than yesterday's high...otherwise, Run Luke, Run!

    ReplyDelete
  98. Not a promising close for UVXY...no position held. Market likely to rally to another high soon. We must be cautious...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LOL you don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure that one out course it wasn't a great close

      Delete
  99. The UVXY path will be about 9 to 14.33 or 14.56 major top.
    That will end the standard 57% winter panic spike. That's being rather generous though. On the low side currently, let's watch the 4 hour bollinger band at 9.10 and sinking. Constantly revising outlook on this nasty financial instrument.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. so i will buy another 38000 shares at 9
      people have to know there risk ill take 14.33 any day
      xiv got smacked last time it will get smacked again
      i believe xiv will get slapped 2 100 area in my opinion thats over 30 points so figure out where uvxy will be alot higher in my opinion

      Delete
  100. 2645 will be end of any down wave this month.

    ReplyDelete
  101. The Chosen One has spoken...no position in UVXY until further notice!
    just a guess, but likely to see one last market rally leg up into Thurs/Friday, then lower into year's end...seems consistent with current interpretation of Bradley dates. Coincidence? Hmmmm...
    Analysis at http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
    Merry Christmas!

    ReplyDelete
  102. The NYSE wants to list ProShares Bitcoin ETF and ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF.

    ReplyDelete