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Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Silver - Update - Bear Market Continuing

Silver has declined for more than 1 year after reaching the Cycle high identified in the Summer of 2016.  Silver has been down for more than 6 years, and is the weakest market on the board.

Silver has struggled at horizontal resistance, but may attempt to test the 2016 high with the bear market to resume thereafter.  There is no sign of a bottom.  Silver will take years to finally reach the bottom.  

Weekly Chart
















Before:

June 25, 2016:

"Silver formed the double bottom blue arrow lows late last year as anticipated in the Cycle.  The result was a significant bounce. 

Silver is approaching a critical high in the Cycle.  It may seem tempting to view Gold and Silver as a safe haven with turmoil in the market. 

Any safe haven behavior is likely short lived according to the Cycle with a relentless decline directly ahead."


3-day Chart
 
Silver Bear Market Cycle:



















56 comments:

  1. I'll post a Gold chart next few days. It was important to see the Silver update first.

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    1. I'll talk about Gold with the Gold analysis.

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  2. Silver has been boring over the last year. An optimal time to short may occur during the next 6 months. I am waiting and continue to monitor Silver.

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  3. XIV short term levels to watch. The white line is $91. The blue resistance is $95.

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  4. Nice signal from VIX yesterday!

    SCSeptember 19, 2017 at 11:43 AM

    "SPX up today and VIX is also up. This rally is going to collapse just as fast as it went up."

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  5. An optimal spot may present itself to short next week for SPX and XIV.

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  6. so, on silver, end of yr or early 2018 is buy

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    1. No, silver is too high. Expect it to take a few years of declines to reach bottom.

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  7. So, for silver, you expect a retest of the 2016 high in the next six months? This makes you slightly bullish lol

    Best wishes

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    Replies
    1. Maybe, but I'm only interested in the main trend.

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  8. SC--I believe you are the most ardent PM bearish prognosticator on the planet. So does this mean you are the most bullish $USD proponent?

    Have you read any of Ted Butler's commentary on JPM buying and manipulation of silver and if so, your thoughts?

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    1. The US dollar has been rising since 2011 while silver has fallen during the same period. So there is some correlation. I'm certainly not bullish on the dollar long term, but it may rise for a few years.

      Silver has always just followed the Silver Cycle. Silver has been a slow market which is why I am only interested in the big picture.

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  9. SC, your thoughts on entering UVXY..?

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    1. I'll wait for next week. XIV likely to test $95 first.

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  10. There us a possibility that spx could reach 2516 2517 area

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  11. SC
    Great call so far.
    Are you buying UVXY today or waiting for a lower price? XIV hit $95 this morning.

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    Replies
    1. Thank you. Downturn next but only moderate.

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    2. Moderate as in SPX 2440 (70 points from current price)? Timing for this is mid-Oct into November? Thanks!

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    3. When u say moderate do u mean 2460
      ?

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    4. Yes, that is the SPX target.

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  12. there looks like to me we could get one more pop in spy possibley 251.5 252

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  13. Replies
    1. SC, what's your exit range for UVXY? thx

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    2. What would be a Target on uvxy your thoughts and thanks again

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  14. Always found this guy impressive...because he's been so correct.

    https://pugsma.com/longer-term-sp-500-view/

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  15. SC, what your thoughts are regarding the SPX turn dates? Bulls are in control for now for another day or two in my opinion.

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  16. Down into Oct 11 2460 spx is what I think will happen

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  17. market up this week. Set back next week 9th 10th Possibly Louis 2460 level

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  18. SC, do you think this is a break out for both XIV and SPY? If yes, how far can they go? Thx

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    1. No breakout in my opinion. It'll stall this week. Down but not major drop.

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    2. sc still 2460 on the moderate drop or higher now

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  19. spx on friday hit 9 13 9 tom demark sell signal;

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  20. Sc is your 30 target lower now your thoughts

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    Replies
    1. We'll see $25 to $30. Nothing major in any case.

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    2. Sc thanks what time frame Oct your thoughts

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  21. XIV will form a trading range $85 to $100 for the remainder of this year. October looks negative and it looks weaker later in the year.

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  22. i agree with those xiv trading ranges and timing, 2018 looks like it could get interesting, with a possible bear market starting? Its possible the dec 2017 shows some weakness but doubtful based on santa claus rally and central banks ability to control the market

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  23. sc wondering if we should buy more here your thoughts

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    Replies
    1. waiting because you feel it drops more your thoughts

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  24. McClellan Oscillator...
    All of the readings since Aug. 24 have been above zero.  And all of the readings since Aug. 30 have fallen between +34 and +137.  That is a pretty tight range.  A long study of past readings shows that looking back over just the prior 15 trading days makes for a good indicator, showing that the stock market has become excessively calm and quiet,  befitting a meaningful top.  Now all we need is for the stock market to behave itself this time, and show us a proper top indication.

    http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/another_narrow_range_for_mcclellan_oscillator/

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  25. Definitely no 25-30 uvxy in future. Perhaps 16.xx soon. Possible rally to 19.32-19.50 after, if that. This is a new paradigm market since 2009.

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    1. dont think you cant get a 12 handle on the vix or better and a 50 point s and p drop to 2500 cause that could easily happen

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  26. Bulls in control.. SC, Do you still have the same target range for UVXY..25-30?

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    1. Let me discuss with the next chart.

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  27. Oct 9th 10 th maybe the days for ripe picking on those uvxy. ( sell) dangerous to top pick. But scaling in uvxy today and Friday morning.

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  28. Important XIV chart coming.

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