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Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Gold - Bitcoin Signals Big Trouble for Gold

Bitcoin spells big trouble ahead for Gold.  The headlines are everywhere "Bitcoin - the new digital Gold".

Of course Bitcoin will not replace Gold.  Gold has the most history of any asset.  However, Gold is out of favour, and as Bitcoin builds momentum in a few years time people may actually believe that Bitcoin has replaced Gold!

Gold has been forming a classic Bear Flag over the last two years, and it is nearly complete.  The large size of the flag and measured moves are indicative of a large leg down coming in this bear market. 

Weekly Chart

89 comments:

  1. The precious metals Cycle shows a huge leg down coming for Gold and Silver. I have often been asked why would Gold and Silver drop so much. The reason is now readily apparent - Bitcoin.

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    Replies
    1. If Bitcoin is spelling big trouble for gold what is it saying for the market and uvxy

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  2. Gold is trading around resistance as shown. Gold may see some short term upside though as the bear flag completes.

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  3. Thanks. I ear something about that, but you put the right words.

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  4. Gold is a precious metal and traders with good risk bearing capability generally prefers to trade here. This post is a good source to learn about gold trading. Referring mcx tips of market experts helps traders to earn well from market.

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  5. So essentially you are saying the dollar is going to strengthen (gold is measured in dollars on your chart), with President Cheetos Bandito in charge? I'm expecting No.5; one that is YUGE, to add to his list!

    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/sep/21/carly-fiorina/trumps-four-bankruptcies/

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  6. I wouldn't trade Bitcoin if you gave it to me for free but I'll trade the gbtc or the r i o t

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  7. SC,

    Are your XIV top & plunge predictions still valid? Hovering in 130's....moonshot or plunge next? Sold 2/3 XIV so I am good either way.

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    Replies
    1. Quiet holiday trading is over. XIV currently trading just over the orange line. A decline for XIV to the orange line around $128 next week would put UVXY at $11.

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    2. Is your target still same 17 or you
      Reduced it and what would be your time frame thanks for your help

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    3. Same target. First half 2018 looks very negative. Collapse is coming. Bottoming out June.

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    4. SC,

      I thought XIV target is $32 or is that no longer the case?

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    5. There is a short term play and a longer term play with larger target. It is always best to take things one step at a time though. So I will chart the first move one step at a time.

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  8. Nice freefall into the close haha. XIV turned red on the weekly.

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    Replies
    1. So does XIV have an established top at 135?...going all the way down to 66 by June?

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    2. We are working on forming the top. Let's look at it one step at a time. First level to watch on the downside $95 XIV.

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  9. And what happened to Ag crashing?....It was supposed to be under $10 by now!

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  10. With regard to Bitcoin there are only TWO people in the world that come close to understanding blockchain technology. Bitcoin is just a add on to the BC platform and is flavour of the month, until that is, a better one comes along.
    Which I may add may be soon as Russia and China are currently working on a gold backed crypto as this moment to challenge USD reserve status.
    You heard it here first ;)

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    Replies
    1. "Gold backed crypto"? Sounds scary. And proved your point that not too many people understand the blockchain technology.

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    2. Gold backed crypto sounds implausible and likely is, but that won't stop the efforts to attempt to launch one.
      in relation to blockchain technology I am very much in sync with Quinn Michaels who has theorised that BC was developed by artificial intelligence as a means with which to communicate with other AI.
      If you think about it, it makes perfect sense as the need of AI to develop is ever greater problem solving capability which BTC mining has been providing as more and more miners dedicate greater amounts of computer resources to solve ever greater algorithms. Humans have basically been used.

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  11. XIV. ITwill nice to post new chart with targets

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    Replies
    1. Yes, update will be coming. It is developing nicely..

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  12. Buying a few handfulls of UVXY in low $9.70s...just because...but no where near LL's gazillion shares...that's just pure gambling.
    Happy New Year!

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    Replies
    1. yea its annoying we should get a spike soon jan 8 bradley turn

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    2. We'll break SP500 2700 first.
      Only a few percent down in UVXY with today's $9.40s... but for anyone that held this 'investment' all the way down...good luck breaking even any time soon.
      Happy New Year!

      Delete
  13. Great article, but the issue is whether you can stay solvent until "the c....". SC might be so right, but timing could be ill-advised. No offense, we are all learning.
    https://goo.gl/2mzdZq

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    Replies
    1. nobodys perfect a spike to 12 should come soon

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    2. uvxy went from 2400 to 5800 last jan thats 100 percent move according to my chart

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    3. Jan 2016, not Jan 2017.
      More to the point, what relevance does what UVXY did in Jan 2016 have to the present day?
      Betting against the bull market has been a losing trade since February 2016.
      IMO the only time trading in VXX/UVXY makes any sense is when VIX/VXV ramps above 0.92 and VIX enters backwardation.

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    4. no relevance at all all it shows is it can pop i have a nice average have big position made 20 points twice on xiv
      uvxy will pop up and xiv will drop in my opinion
      i do believe after a drop down we reach new highs possibly 28000 to 31000 dow plus 3500 spx but thats gonna take a while
      sc has a great track record he is not a dAY TRADER
      HIS ENTRY WAS OFF A BIT

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  14. always in motion the future is... and Bradley dates are pure VooDoo... but in hindsight, patience usually pays off. as such, shoulda waited on uvxy in low $9s...or lower... as predicted by the great and powerful Be Careful! should start his own website...

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    Replies
    1. IS HE SHORTING UVXY I HAVENT HEARD ANYTHING FROM HIM

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    2. , you should start your own website you wouldn't be careful whatever his name is guarantee you it won't be up for long

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  15. SPY selling on strength at 2696 on January 2. Not a lot higher to go near term.

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  16. this xiv in my opinion gonna get slammed

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  17. Louis, you should take something else up as you are emotionally not a good trader-investor-trend player etc.
    Anyone betting on a big move down is just played and is now pretty much broke since 2012.....No one has a knows what the market is going to do via cycles, moons, waves etc.

    Be Careful has been much more accurate but even he knows his limits I imagine. Price is all that matters. You need to stop trading and sit on your hands while paper trading for 6 months. Your getting wiped out....just trying to be honest, also quit answering for the blog host. Your trading off emotions, the death knell of retail....

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    Replies
    1. Bro I made a serious amount of money 400000 Trading XIV why would I stop maybe you should listen to SC if you did every trade he did this year and you would trading a half a million dollars you would have made a lot of money there's a reason why he has 3 million views on his website I made a lot of money I'm off slightly with uvxy you guys know who I am you got my name and a picture of me I don't hide behind a fake name

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  18. Guys relax. The drop is definitely coming for XIV and SPX. It's very overextended and will be a sharp decline lasting months.

    UVXY is at $9. $20 is a realistic target for the move.

    First half of this year looks bearish.

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    Replies
    1. SC - is uvxy $20 your short-term target? Any timeframe?

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    2. Yes, charts are coming. Uvxy to run-up for months.

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  19. Discussion is good and when it gets emotional the turn is near.

    Bulls, bears, and traders all welcome! A milestone was reached today! 3,000,000 views!!! Thank you very much to all the participants.

    I am looking forward to an exciting year!

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    Replies
    1. SC - we are still looking for 95 XIV soon? Kudos to many good calls.

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    2. Yes, XIV $95. $60 longer term.

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    3. Thank you SC - going to be a fast and violent move now when it comes...

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  20. Next crisis rapidly approaching:

    "January is going to get wild for Trump and Congress as a government shutdown looms. ... 2018 kicks off with a busy month for Congress, which has until January 19 to pass a bill to fund the government."

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  21. let xiv drop like a pig i would be happy with 95

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  22. S&P hit 25 points higher than I thought it would...so far. Anyway, the UVXY winter, concrete ceiling is now 13.76. It's not going higher than that. Even if there was a crazy flash crash (which is entirely unlikely), UVXY wouldn't clear 15.80. Impossible at this point. Absolutely impossible. There will be no government shutdown (Republicans have midterms this year). You need to read Jeremy Grantham's opinion on S&P 3400+. But also think about Jim Paulsen's concern about the 2018 market (as he has been right quite often). American Association of Individual Investors is now at 60% bulls (very high). AAPL earnings are Feb 1....a long time away for UVXY.

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    Replies
    1. 13 76 sounds great to me between that and my xiv short would be beautiful

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    2. It's coming soon Louis...XIV to 95 from here prolly means UVXY - 13-16 I would think.

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    3. well atleast the 50 day moving average is 120.34
      im patient
      bought more uvxy at 8.90 im short xiv and long uvxy
      we will see

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  23. More Bradley VooDoo to consider. As mentioned, R2K has followed turns dates for several months now with amazing accuracy. Coincidence...? Well, if this trend continues, R2K should turn lower as soon as tomorrow... Bradley Date details can be found at https://bradleysiderograph.com/2018-turn-dates-sp500/

    Also, uvxy may have bottomed today...but as the Chosen One mentioned, it's not likely to bounce very high. Sorry, LL -- Be Careful!

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  24. Another massive selling on strength today for SPY. Correction coming very soon.

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  25. VIX spike is around the corner... look at the VIX chart making a low and staying there for 3 months followed by a spike higher. This is repeating for 5-6th time. This time we will see a higher high and break out of the wedge. Most likely three legs - spike to 14-15 lower to 10-11 and higher to 18-19.

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    Replies
    1. the question is how high will uvxy go

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    2. We can only guess... statistically I would say around 50% gains.
      The first leg higher should not cause much fear.
      Similar moves:
      Date VIX XIV UVXY
      sep.2016 11->20 -25% +56%
      nov.2016 12->23 -21% +58%
      apr.2017 10->15 -17% +42%
      aug.2017 9->16 -26% +62%

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  26. Another beautiful Bradley high for R2K as predicted in advance by...uh, Bradley! Now let's see if we get a 10 Jan low... always a gamble, so... Be Careful!

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  27. Interesting read

    https://realinvestmentadvice.com/exuberance-marks-start-of-2018-01-05-18/

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  28. The forex market is driven by interest-rates made by any of the eight global central banks. Interest rates are important to traders as the higher the rate, the more interest earned on currency invested and the bigger the profit.

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  29. S&P 2695 will hold for 6 weeks or more. UVXY might only make it to 12.70 this winter...and then collapse again (not looking good at all, just awful).

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  30. SC - any turn dates we should be aware of...surprised market has not begun pulling back yet...

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    Replies
    1. The market may hold in January but definitely not February.

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  31. this market is a manipulated joke one bad event and timber
    anybody buying more uvxy

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    Replies
    1. I may wait for end of January to overweight.

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  32. Ideally this is what to expect. This week and next week quiet with consolidation. XIV probably sees a small pop into month end January. I'm working on the data for turn dates, and will post dates soon.

    The turn is due early February from a cycle I am watching closely. It's been tracking perfectly. February is shaping up to be one of the most bearish this year. After the initial collapse in February and continuation lower, the worst of the panic will occur in the April to June timeframe.

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  33. Hi SC, you know 90% of analysts are seeing 3000 by end of the year if not summer..there is hardly anyone talks about correction more than 5%..

    What do you think about that?

    Cheers

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    Replies
    1. Most people thought if Donald Trump was elected the stock market would drop. Instead it went up.

      So if the consensus is now calling for further upside then it will surely decline...

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    2. The first half of the year looks bearish. The second half may be positive. Choppy year by the looks of it. My favorite!

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    3. jamie dimon regretting what he said about bitcoin
      i wonder why? because maybe he will launch his own

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  34. UVXY cement ceiling now in high 12s for winter, at best. The cement has dried :)

    S&P bottom is 2601 gap, at best. Lucky if we get that far.

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    Replies
    1. Be Careful, you have been good on the call, but do not carried away. On this board, no one can say that is "for sure", including SC, otherwise market will penalize them, see mine and SC's entry. Those were horrible. Four days in a row, the SPX and VIX went same direction, that only happened 5 times in past few decades, 3 of them went really bad thereafter. Someone was hedging, given, someone might know something we do not know... I have been wrong in past one week, but still humble here to learn... BetterBeWrong

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    2. i was thinking 2644 what about after the winter
      on uvxy

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    3. can we get a green on uvxy today lol

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  35. Looks like we might just get that 10 Jan Bradley low on R2K...coincidence? Hmmmm... If so, time to get long!

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