Pages

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

$SPX - Bull Market from 2009 has Terminated!!!

Cycles show that the Bull Market for SPX since 2009 has terminated at resistance.  Price has been grinding along resistance, but failed yesterday with a key reversal.

A lower low is to be expected in the months ahead for SPX to start. 

The model shows that the topping process will be characterized by whipsaws and chop.  The topping process is shown forming as a double top. 

Daily Chart
















SPX - 2017 Top Detailed Model:















36 comments:

  1. SPX has been so weak it tried all summer and couldn't reach resistance. Finally it touched it yesterday.

    ReplyDelete
  2. SC,

    You still holding UVXY or exit & reenter lower price?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Still holding. I do expect it to grind cheaper though.

      I plan to continue to increase the position in the months ahead. There might be one more trade before the end of the year. Other than that I plan to hold for the big play.

      Delete
  3. SC,

    When will be this play since uvxy deteriorates rapidly?

    Are you expecing UVXY play similar to parabolic XIV move we had this year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The parabolic move of 700% in XIV at $110 currently started in January 2016 at $15. Two years from start to finish will be in January 2018.

      It'll unwind in half that time and lose most of it's value. Approximately one year to hit bottom according to the model, and other examples of parabolas.

      Delete
  4. So, you're looking for XIV to be half its value a year from now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, what I'm saying is that XIV will fall much faster than it went up. Half the time.

      XIV ran from $15 over $100 in two years.

      Next XIV falls to $30 in one year.

      Delete
  5. Hi ,

    First post here , as I don't pretend to be so acute in charting , but I think you're going a little bit too fast saying Bull market has terminated. I'm OK with a real Down from now on , as with a double Top in formation , but I think this double Top will materialize in 2018 , not from now . My guess is somewhere between spring and september for this event to be terminated . Until then , I think we will see 2400 pts and then +/-2700 pts for the end of this Big Run .
    Just my guess , not more .
    And by the way , many thanks for your blog and your fine tuning in XIV and UVXY . I hope to be in for the big reset down.....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Welcome! It is early and it will take time. The top will likely form over months with whipsaws and false moves. We will see confirmation as it progresses. One thing is clear and that is that 2019 will be a brutal year for the stock market.

      The fact that complacency went parabolic this year is a very negative event for the market. It is the black swan that nobody seems to recognize.

      It was an interesting year for XIV. Volatility is the hottest trade, and in 2019 the rapid unwinding is due to occur.

      Delete
  6. @Greg5thTrad
    $SPX monthly RSI has reached 80...for the 1st time since 2007...in the last 20 years, the S&P has only broken 70 RSI monthly 3x: 00, 07 & 14

    ReplyDelete
  7. SC, where do you see XIV top out in the short run, or has it already? thx for you analysis.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. XIV may test $100 here, but higher highs are still possible $120. The top could take months to form so it's still very early.

      Delete
    2. XIV may see support $98 to $100.

      Delete
  8. so why hold uvxy then dump it and buy back

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cycle turned down on Oct 18th. SPX dropped the following day then managed one last pop on Friday, Oct 20th.

      The downtrend has started.

      Cycles down for another week.

      Delete
    2. SCOctober 6, 2017 at 7:42 AM

      "Next turn dates October 18th and October 31st."

      Delete
    3. SCOctober 6, 2017 at 9:17 AM

      "My feeling is if it hasn't turned down already then watch for a turn down Oct 18th."

      Delete
  9. If UVXY spikes to $25 I would take the profit.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Not yet

    SPX will get anew high on Nov. 7

    ReplyDelete
  11. It sure looks like a set up as in the last day of June 2017 for this bear fund:

    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=HDGE&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

    ReplyDelete
  12. Whoops meant last day of May 2017 :)

    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=HDGE&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

    ReplyDelete
  13. AAPL earnings November 2, market up sideways for days.

    ReplyDelete
  14. XIV bounced off $98 support.

    SCOctober 25, 2017 at 8:08 AM

    "XIV may see support $98 to $100."

    ReplyDelete
  15. Support for XIV in short term has dropped to $85.

    ReplyDelete
  16. If XIV holds $100 next week then November will be boring, and support at $85 tested in December.

    ReplyDelete
  17. When will XIV see $30? Next summer? Fall?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. XIV is forming the peak. The drop is estimated to take one year after the peak is complete.

      Delete
  18. UVXY November chart is coming! It'll be posted today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I might have to wait another day to post it. Still waiting for some data to be processed... Definitely I will be posting the UVXY chart with short term targets soon.

      Delete
    2. This is setting up beautifully as I will explain. There is no urgency yet.

      Delete
  19. XIV looks like it'll probably fall back to test the 50 dma around $100 next. Very weak.

    ReplyDelete
  20. http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=HDGE&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&i=t14127766148&r=1509606976217

    HDGE volume high for the year on Nov 1

    ReplyDelete