Pages

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

$SPX - Before/After - Update

SPX made a V-bottom as anticipated, and has traded back to horizontal resistance once again.  What is next?

Expect to see an overthrow of horizontal resistance, and a washout low. 

60min Chart

















Before:

May 1, 2017 analysis:

"SPX has spiked up to test 2,400 as anticipated. 

However, the spike has been too much and too fast.  The gap is likely to fill next as shown on the chart.

The roller coaster to continue..."


60min Chart
















179 comments:

  1. Great work! Are you confident on the pullback before overthrow to upside?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, SPX should pullback. Horizontal resistance is still valid.

      Delete
  2. Also, where was the SPX chart on May 1 blog post? I think it was just XIV that you had forecasted, not the chart above? Did I miss it?

    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2017/05/xiv-white-trendline-backtest-complete_1.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're right the SPX chart was posted April 26th.

      Delete
  3. SC, are you going to buy UVXY up here? If I've been reading you correctly, you're going to sit this drop out.
    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'll look at UVXY again soon. Just waiting for now.

      Delete
  4. Uvxy looks like it's could tag 1090 that's just my opinion that is the bottom of the trend line that I'm reading we will see as each turn day gets closer

    ReplyDelete
  5. Xiv mving to fill the gap at 80

    ReplyDelete
  6. sc we are about at the bottom pf the trendline on uvxy
    your thoughts at 10.86

    ReplyDelete
  7. XIV very strong here. Doesn't seem like $66 anytime soon. Waiting patiently for re-entry.

    ReplyDelete
  8. SC, are we getting very close to SPX pullback? What do you see the entry point for UVXY?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Turn date due tomorrow May 26th. Waiting for now but may be interested in UVXY again soon.

      Delete
    2. after tomorrow, is June 2 your next turn date?

      Delete
  9. S&P 2439 soon actually. Jim Paulsen said 2600 this year. Robert Schiller and Jeremy Grantham said this thing could go very high. Echoes of Bitcoin..

    ReplyDelete
  10. Vix 8.6, is it possible in next 4 weeks...perhaps on a future S&P squeeze.

    ReplyDelete
  11. 2280s possible next week. XIV washout on deck

    ReplyDelete
  12. UVXY looks interesting here.

    Waiting for XIV to fill gap at 80

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It does look interesting though I think this thing could tag 10 69 that's why I have my down from line going from on a 60-minute 10-week chart

      Delete
    2. XIV gap filled.

      UVXY 10.69 hit (congrats Louis!)

      Good time to enter UVXY? Target 16-18

      Delete
    3. my new downtrend line comes to 10.47 on uvxy

      Delete
  13. SC, are we now at the higher high with a drop to 2360 next?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SPX has reached the target of 2,415, but let's wait and see. Still maybe a little higher.

      Delete
  14. SC what would be a good buy on uvxy
    Your thoughts

    ReplyDelete
  15. Could be lower than 2280s on deck maybe even 2200 if this is the real flush lower...

    ReplyDelete
  16. thank u payday we need the nod from the godfather sc
    obviously i agree with price but just waitin for sc to give us the nod lol

    ReplyDelete
  17. my new down trend line comes to 10.47

    ReplyDelete
  18. SC - Any update on gold?
    You said that gold would be in a downtrend for years but:
    1.in 2016, gold rose by 8%.
    2.In 2017 so far, gold is up 10%.


    Thanks and all the best

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Update coming soon. Gold hasn't done much in the last couple years. It's up in 2017 only because it fell at the end of 2016.

      Delete
    2. SC - I feel you're not objective on that point.
      Gold is now up for a sixth straight month in a row. It is up this year, it was up last year.
      If I remember well, you called for a strong long-term downtrend.
      There is nothing wrong with being wrong. But you seem to convince yourself that gold is in a downtrend while for now, the uptrend since 2016 is a fact.

      Best wishes

      Delete
  19. Agreed Louis! Just waiting for all clear to enter UVXY &/or XIV though this latest bounce seems long in the tooth!

    SPX:VIX RATIO...... bubble anyone?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$VIX&p=M&st=1989-03-16&en=%28today%29&id=p56596247166&a=296187083&r=1363776061098&cmd=print

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you do that chart in logarithmic, ratio can spike up to 292.30

      Delete
    2. Hi PayDay, if you do the chart in logarithmic scale, ratio highs can extend to 292.30.

      Delete
  20. SC, where do you see the SPX topping before a pullback?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SPX is near a peak in my opinion.

      Delete
  21. The markets won't make any more highs once SOX index hits 1175. That should be it for some time. But it will get to that number.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Sc what's your take on Buying UVXY at $10.50

    ReplyDelete
  23. The future path should be up to S&P 2475, then down to 2290.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Be Careful May 25, 2017 at 6:30 AM
    S&P 2439 soon actually. Jim Paulsen said 2600 this year. Robert Schiller and Jeremy Grantham said this thing could go very high. Echoes of Bitcoin..

    ReplyDelete
  25. June 2. Supposed to be turn day....

    Having my doubts about XIV $66 anytime soon. SPX looks like its on its way to 2500 = XIV $90

    ReplyDelete
  26. SC, what turn dates you see next in the cycles? Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. June 2nd was a turn date and June 9th or June 12th is the next.

      SPX peaking within a week...

      Delete
  27. Sc can pl update blog with spx and gold

    ReplyDelete
  28. Yes, an update would be nice.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Charts coming soon! XIV is not in agreement with this rally in SPX.

    Notice that unlike SPX, XIV has not made a higher high. We haven't seen this warning all year. It's a warning for June. This move in SPX will collapse. Possibly a little higher over the next week but we will see 2,360 to 2,380 SPX.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks, SC. What is your view on timing? High this week (week of June 5), low following week (week of June 12)?

      Delete
    2. High for SPX this week, drop the following week and expecting a slide down into the end of the month. 2,380 SPX.

      Delete
  30. I'm sure XIV will see the token higher high though. So wait for that to look at UVXY.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have a possible 9.50 on uvxy
      Your thoughts

      Delete
    2. $10 looks interesting for a pop.

      Delete
    3. Hi SC, approx how far would any pop go in UVXY? thanks

      Delete
    4. Just a decent pop $11 or $12.

      Delete
    5. the pop in uvxy yesterday was that the pop you were talking about up to 11.17

      Delete
    6. Yes, the target for the pop has been reached.

      Delete
  31. This move in xiv is not as strong as last move

    ReplyDelete
  32. XIV not confirming move in SPX (sucker's rally). 2280s still possible.

    ReplyDelete
  33. SC, if you only expecting 11-12 in uvxy, how high in spx after that and when

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'll post an update soon. Drop first though.

      Delete
  34. sc, your model on spx on feb 18, is it still good.
    $SPX - Short Term Targets and Timing - 2017 Bear Market Cycle



    Cycles and models show that the Bull Market for SPX since 2009 is terminating at red resistance.

    Price can grind higher in the months ahead though as the topping process progresses. The model shows that the topping process will be characterized by whipsaws and chop.

    The topping process is shown forming as a double top with completion estimated in the summer of 2017.
    will we have pull back to around 2250 or so, then back up

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, it is valid. SPX has been following the model and I will be updating the progress.

      Delete
  35. SC, is the retest of the 2355 low still possible or 2380 is max for down now? Thank you!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC, I'm just trying to understand your outlook -- you're still expecting a new high *this* week (coinciding with a marginal new high in XIV) before the drop to 2380 starting *next* week? Thanks

      Delete
    2. sc what is the time frame on 2380

      Delete
    3. Marginal higher highs are possible. Next week SPX should see an initial drop and continue to decline for several weeks.

      Delete
  36. When is 2250. I hope u give us chart

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, chart update is coming with timing.

      Delete
  37. looks like 245 in spy will come before 240 next week

    ReplyDelete
  38. Mahendra is saying top inearly july. Mcdough has 3 three hinderberg omem now. Blustar. Is saying sharp down. Into next week. Then another high

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. brad from blue star is saying down monday but he is usually off by 2 days

      Delete
    2. lol brad is never right

      Delete
    3. That's not true he nailed nugget today is Market direction is pretty decent however both do a short-term option trades you will surely get destroyed

      Delete
  39. He nailed gold correction also

    ReplyDelete
  40. SOX now at 1149. 1175-1200 is dot com (17 years ago) high.
    Definitely will hit it.

    "Be Careful
    June 1, 2017 at 9:16 AM
    The markets won't make any more highs once SOX index hits 1175. That should be it for some time. But it will get to that number."

    ReplyDelete
  41. sc what price would you buy uvxy i have 9.80

    ReplyDelete
  42. Uvxy taking off. Triple bottom

    ReplyDelete
  43. May be blustar will be correct ivxy 10.77

    ReplyDelete
  44. Here comes the washout low for XIV. Reducing XIV target from $66 to $63.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. lower target for SPX as well??

      Delete
    2. I still think around 2,360 to 2,380 SPX though 2,340 to 2,355 possible.

      Delete
  45. SPX plunging on the turn date.

    SCJune 4, 2017 at 4:00 PM

    "June 2nd was a turn date and June 9th or June 12th is the next.

    SPX peaking within a week..."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm just not getting why you wouldn't go along uvxy or short XIV I was long uvxy this morning at 9 93 I'm just curious why you wouldn't do these trade what are your thoughts

      Delete
    2. The reason is that I expected a bounce and lower high after the intial drop. We have seen the intial drop. So now I can short on a lower high with low risk entry.

      Delete
  46. SC, are buying today?
    Fantastic calls!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you! I'll probably enter UVXY either today or Monday.

      Delete
  47. Marginal higher high this morning. Initial drop underway....

    SCJune 8, 2017 at 11:35 AM

    "Marginal higher highs are possible. Next week SPX should see an initial drop and continue to decline for several weeks."

    ReplyDelete
  48. Replies
    1. SC, UVXY exit target around $14-15? thx

      Delete
  49. Target for UVXY $16. XIV can see $73 next week and $63 later in the month.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC if uvxy goes to 16, I agree it will, won't XIV be much lower than 73?

      Delete
    2. SC,

      Is UVXY $30 still in the cards?

      If so, when....later this summer?

      Delete
    3. For the coming week we are looking to confirm continuation to the downside. Expect bounces on the way down for weeks. Initially may see XIV around $73 then bounce to around $78 and lower lows and lower highs to follow.

      Delete
    4. Yes, ultimately XIV $30, but still in a whipsaw phase for months first.

      Delete
    5. So with lower highs & lower lows in XIV to come does that mean higher highs/lows for UVXY? Was $9.90 the low?

      Delete
    6. What is corresponding UVXY target @ XIV $30?

      Delete
    7. For now higher highs and higher lows for UVXY. $16 to $18 UVXY target on this move.

      Delete
    8. Because the market is still in the whipsaw phase it is too early to calculate a UVXY target for the year.

      We'll get to that, but one step at a time.

      Delete
    9. UVXY is going to spike hard soon - market perhaps waiting on Fed rate hike tomorrow to get moving. Perhaps June 23 will be a lower high after the coming market selloff

      Delete
  50. Sc wish you had posted chatrts

    ReplyDelete
  51. 9.93 was such a good price it was third bottom price. Would have been good.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Tim ord saying. One more high. Uvxy. We will get heaper

    ReplyDelete
  53. SC, what's the next turn date in the cycles? Thank you!

    ReplyDelete
  54. SOX will get to 1175. S&P will not go below 2392-2399.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. that's a 100 pts north? if it gets up there, shorting should be a given....

      Delete
  55. The type of reversal we saw on Friday tend to signal a change in trend that lasts for a while...

    ReplyDelete
  56. Mmm. DOW all time highs. Oh well :(

    ReplyDelete
  57. Replies
    1. we all know that could happen however there will be a massive spike at that level double down there in my opinion i originally bought 9.95 last week

      Delete
    2. Agreed Louis.

      Entered UVXY today 10.15.

      Delete
  58. SC
    Any change to your Forecast
    And Do do you have Chart Coming for SPX
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In March and April SPX was trading at the low end of the trading range. Now SPX is trading at the high end of the range. Bearish. It's an easy call.

      Delete
  59. Tech has declined and looks like we are waiting on financials to roll over. Financials rising over the last week, but only managing to test the high of March. Very weak!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. FIRE sector is strong and just consolidating for further move north...support cluster at 23.80 will stop any move down....need a melt up for melt down....biotech sector ramping up to breakout.....no big move down until fall...

      Delete
    2. Biotech is the trade right now....

      Delete
  60. XIV is exactly sideways. It'll test $77 again soon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. uvxy acting weird should be much higher on move like this

      Delete
    2. UVXY acting typical and it takes a few sessions to build up momentum after being repressed for so long. I find it outperforms and makes up any initial lag quite quickly once it enters backwardation phase.

      Patiently waiting for $16-18

      Delete
    3. UVXY will spike soon - Nasdaq just consolidating prior to plunging to 5400s

      Delete
    4. Will you say 16 - 18 what would be the time frame your thoughts

      Delete
    5. How do you learn about backwardation and contango

      Delete
    6. Needs to happen soon (within next few days I would say if the setup is going to hold). For last few months NDX led the way and is now substantially below its ATH whereas SPX/DOW are still at ATHs. NDX is leading the way down and should infect SPX on the next downleg.

      Delete
    7. Louis, I also noticed that UVXY was bit out of wack, maybe because it's based on vix futureshttp://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=VX Interesting chart that illustrates Vix breakouts occur frequently near mid month

      Delete
  61. I think the next stop for UVXY is 9.10 next week

    ReplyDelete
  62. SC Sorry to say UVXY is headed to $6.00 not $16.00

    ReplyDelete
  63. Scott Bradshaw - Why?

    Michael Greenhill - Why?

    I'm not sure I agree. And I'll give my reasoning. OPex today. Weak close. Not the high of the week or the low of the week.

    Started 2420 went to 2440 closed 2430 (approx). Range bound week.

    Is it going to turn? Maybe, maybe not. I am not an investor. I am a trader. I win some. I lose some. Winners run and losers stop out. Game plan created and executed.

    This OPEX did not seem right to me. I can't articulate why though.

    Anyone? Bueller... Bueller...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Contagion. The future vix months drop next week to meet and become the current month's vix levels. Currently 2 months out are 18% higher than current. That means that the futures are dropping on avg 9% a month and hvu 18%. Currently hvu or uvzy are too dangerous to own going into next week. The 9.10 level for uvxy is just a rough guess based on the last 2 lows from an hourly chart

      Delete
    2. Thanks for your analysis.

      Delete
  64. it could tag 9.60 that my price and we new it however expect a 40 to 50 percent spike

    ReplyDelete
  65. The SPX closed 1.3 points Higher yesterday than Last Friday
    Yet UVXY Closed down 5% since last Friday
    That's Contango.

    ReplyDelete
  66. sc alot of people posting negative stuff however im just curious
    i believe we will see a may 18 throughdown in market what are your thoughts on uvxy stiill the same

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes exactly - clearly Vix Is being suppressed. Every time it is unleashed it explodes higher in 1/2 days. So you're right it will be like may 18

      Delete
  67. Waiting for UVXY comment from guru SC

    If SC says uvxy 16-18 then by golly it will get there...lol

    ReplyDelete
  68. It will be nice to have update to blog

    ReplyDelete
  69. SPX has been weak since the June 9th turn date. XIV just barely mustering a high, chart still flat. XIV still providing a clear warning for June.

    Next turn date due June 23rd. Washout does look likely. 2,385 SPX within a week. XIV $77.

    ReplyDelete
  70. UVXY target is 9.03

    (That would be VXV target of 12.19 which is 1.3% lower).

    ReplyDelete
  71. XIV is up only $3 from the May high. The weakest performance all year...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. sc uvxy 16 still on horizon or is it lowered to 14
      your thoughts

      Delete
  72. thats the 60 min down trend line correct

    ReplyDelete
  73. sc if xiv target is 77 that would mean 12.60 to 13 target on uvxy correct me if i am wrong contango backwardation trying to get a grip on this

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'll post a detailed chart with targets for XIV soon. There are different targets based on the time frames.

      Initially $77 is where the previous support has been this month. $71 XIV is another level I am watching which would equate to approximately $13's for UVXY.

      Delete
    2. Sc,

      Is UVXY 16-18 still in the cards or has that been modified to $13?

      Delete
    3. It's best to take things in steps. XIV $77 the previous support is the level to watch first. That would put UVXY back to $11.

      Delete
    4. I believe it we hit 77 will put new vxy at 11. 8

      Delete
  74. Replies
    1. Selloff coming, just have to wait it out lol

      Delete
  75. Tim ord is saying three drive to top pattern

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Who is tom its and what is 3 drive to top pattern

      Delete
    2. Louis: https://twitter.com/ordoracle/status/876909738306531328

      Delete
  76. Uvxy just does not make any sense to me whatsoever S&P down 12 uvxy 1008 now S&P down 980 uvxy flats for the day can anybody explain what the hell is going on with this thing

    ReplyDelete
  77. Hi Louis,

    It is frustrating isnt it?

    UVXY doesnt track S&P. it doesn't even track the VIX. It tracks VIX Futures which right now is in contango (which is why XIV is stubbornly holding the 80's). It takes awhile for this to reverse so UVXY is slow going at first.

    Once vix futures are in backwardation, UVXY EXPLODES upwards and outperforms (is VIX will hover flat in 30-40's while uvxy gains 20-30% per day)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks I've been buying this thing all the way down I have an average cost of about 993

      Delete
    2. You are doing better than me. My average is 10.58.

      When will you exit?

      Delete
    3. I will exit when SC exits it's not that I don't trust myself this contango crap I'm trying to get my hands around it I own a lot of this uvxy how control like 16000 shares in it

      Delete
    4. what puts uvxy in backwardation

      Delete
    5. I like to monitor this ratio $VIX:$VXV. When above 1, it is in backwardation. When below 1, it is in contagion. Currently at .85. When gets below .8, people think the markets will never go down, start looking to short. When above 1, serious fear in the markets, start looking to buy. When at .8 though, means UVXY will continue to drop by 20% per month. UVXY is not a buy & hold.

      Delete
    6. Two things trigger backwardation

      1) sudden spike in volatility
      2) prolonged high volatility (VIX over 20 for weeks at a time)

      Right now we have #2 in reverse...prolonged low volatility for weeks at a time so XIV is in backwardation. When XIV is in contango the losses are swift and severe 70-80% (though i have never seen xiv do a reverse split like uvxy)

      Delete
    7. scott what chart or how do you monitor vix and vxv ratio

      Delete
    8. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XIV&p=D&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70799574258&a=523045163&listNum=1

      Delete
  78. SC I believe you said June 23 was the next Turn Day.
    Now was that a Turn Up
    Or Turn Down
    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
  79. Is it Possible "THE CAPTAIN "
    Has Abandoned Ship.

    ReplyDelete
  80. sc is there a point where you would stop out of this uvxy im not understatnding how this contango works confusing

    ReplyDelete
  81. XIV is trading in a tight range currently, and at this point in the cycle that is perfectly fine. I realize the charts haven't been exciting this month, but there is basically no change in prices through June.

    SPX and XIV continue to look weak. UVXY looks good for a pop. I still this as a whipsawing market. Next move to the downside.

    I don't mind that things are quiet at the moment. This is the quietest market in 50 years of data. It's going to be a very exciting summer and fall!



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. sc when you say pop on uvxy still 11 your thoughts

      Delete
  82. SC, how big of a pop are you waiting for uvxy? 11-13 (revised from 16-18?)

    Would you add in $9 or are $8 possible (XIV 90+)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UVXY $11 is an initial target. $13 also likely to be tested but may pullback from $11 first.

      Higher targets are possible but strong supports would have to break.

      XIV may eventually warm up, but the performance has been so weak this month and it is approaching major long term resistance. I may look at it again later.

      Delete
  83. In 9.41, we have full 27 days to play this out, VIX should not stay this level, either lower low or higher high, cantango is not too bad at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  84. call me crazy..playing with fire like uvxy..got to be a bit crazy...but im thinking next week begins a pullback in xiv...uvxy to 15 by beginning of august

    ReplyDelete