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Saturday, March 18, 2017

XIV - Pullback Due - Short Term Targets

XIV has reached it's short term target, and a pullback is due.  XIV has been trading in the white channel, but the slope is too steep, and appears unsustainable.

A pullback to the orange channel with a more gradual slope is likely to occur next.

Daily Chart

196 comments:

  1. The short term target of $72 for XIV was achieved. Took profits last week.

    SCMarch 9, 2017 at 10:14 AM

    "XIV $72 next week then it'll be ready for a dip to $60."

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  2. The UVXY $15 target was achieved on Friday.

    SCFebruary 24, 2017 at 9:03 AM

    "I'm interested in UVXY around $15."

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  3. Fits nicely with a retest of 50 dma for XIV/VXX

    http://imgur.com/FW1oBll

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  4. i agree time to go long volatility

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    Replies
    1. david did you buy any i bought friday and traded out

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  5. Where do you see SPX by March 27th and April 6th?

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    Replies
    1. SPX looks weak, and expect to see lower lows in April. What is interesting is that as SPX is declining, complacency is rising. So no bottom in SPX until the VIX spikes. Need to see fear to form a low in SPX.

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  6. sc are you thinking of buying uvxy here at this level or you are still looking for 15

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  7. sc what price would you be willing to jump in on uvxy your thoughts

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  8. i bought friday as well and traded out..i think oil might have to come off first, then at the last stages of that volatility pops. i'm watching biotech too...it still looks it has a bit of strength left?

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    Replies
    1. oil to selloff first, followed by stock market?

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  9. uvxy is very close to a buy ... today..a few days..

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  10. The trump trade is losing steam. Internet searches for trump were #1 last week. Down to #5 today.

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  11. It's fascinating to watch this unfolding.

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  12. The high for SPX came in exactly on March 15th!

    SPX may retest 2,390 at the end of this week with the next low 2,340 due March 27th.

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    Replies
    1. SPX 2,380 high April 6th. Then SPX 2,270 April target.

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  13. Here SPX at each 100-pt level. A trip back down to weekly middle BB seems in order

    http://imgur.com/Ramzps1

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  14. maybe another couple weeks ..i dont think longer than 3 weeks

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  15. Hope you're wrong about restesting 2390 this week!! HAHA

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    Replies
    1. I figured it might try and retest that level, but it doesn't have to...

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  16. looks like it was yesterday, labd is a buy now too, and oil is showing weakness all looks good

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  17. SC
    Fantastic calls, you've been spot on!

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  18. Replies
    1. DO YOU SEE A BIGGER MOVE IN APRIL TO POSSIBLY 24

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    2. DO WE PLAN ON SELLING AT 19 OR DO WE PLAN ON HOLDING FOR
      HIGHER LEVELS INTO APRIL YOUR THOUGHTS

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  19. i dont believe this is the big move in uvxy i think theres still 3 weeks

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  20. Yes I plan to take profit on UVXY $19. I'll look to reload around $16 and run to $25 in April.

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    Replies
    1. I mean could just hold for April but I'll exit as I expect a bounce from March 27 to April 6th.

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    2. thank you my friend if you need any thing call me 917 816 2794

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    3. Haha, thank you Louis!!

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  21. Replies
    1. A little lower for March but not much. Low due in a few days March 27th.

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  22. your hang seng fractal looks valid...suggests a big bonce back up..and the bigger drop in a couple weeks, but i have 2 fractals an oil/spx and spx/spx that says this is this big one, no big bounces..troubling

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  23. I don't believe the final high is in place yet, the much-anticipated high that will usher in the next major correction. The pullback we saw yesterday is the 4th wave ahead of the 5th.

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  24. Today, UVXY came close to the target of $19. SPX may see a little lower yet around March 27th, but I'm not convinced that it translate into a higher UVXY at that time.

    XIV came close enough to the white support today. It hasn't quite touched it, but I'm not convinced it has to either.

    So took profits...

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    Replies
    1. great trade and great job i sold mine in the 18.20 so the game plan is to wait for 16 and to buy correct

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    2. Thank you. I'd be interested first in XIV around $66 and then UVXY $16.

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  25. I still expect SPX to rally from March 27th to April 6th target around 2,380 SPX.

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  26. i suspect this is a dead cats bounce today and tomorrow then short spx all next week down to 2280 ish

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  27. Both targets SPX 2,340 and UVXY $19 have now been reached!

    It's still a few days early for the turn date though.

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    Replies
    1. we didnt quite hit 65 on xiv are we still looking for that
      your thoughts

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    2. It's possible, but may have already hit the low.

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  28. Beautiful backtest of broken 20 EMA. Seems like that 50 dma is a magnet. Also fib confluence there. Would expect tomorrow or Monday to hit and coincide with SC's turn dates
    http://schrts.co/x2zBtE

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  29. Replies
    1. XIV should pop to $70 to $72. Low is due. Decent bounce next week.

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  30. Replies
    1. Thank you! Nice reaction to the white line for XIV!!

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    2. shorted uvxy at 19.81 covered at 18,21
      analysis on the money thank u

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  31. well its either a 10% correction begins next week mon-tues...or the spx bounces back, uvxy down, and we're looking more at the last 2 weeks of april..

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  32. still holding short from friday, i had to seeing as 2 major fractals showing a big down wave

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  33. i was out of uvxy this morning at 19.2 looks like xiv is going back up...

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  34. Bottomed on the turn date, and looking strong! Excellent!!

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    Replies
    1. are you still looking to sell this at 72 and buy uvxy at 16 because instead of going long xiv i have been short uvxy

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    2. Yes, that's the plan.

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    3. Stud call SC!! I wonder if we make it all the way to 4/6 though before next drop. We'll see!!

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    4. I expect this rally to stall in a few days for SPX. Then choppy until April 6.

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    5. sc, target still 2380 SPX?

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    6. 2380 might be a little too high. 2365 SPX looks good.

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  35. If 72 hit already this week, before April 6, do you sell or see higher targets For XIV?

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    Replies
    1. I plan to exit this week. Best to play it safe.

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  36. SC,

    Is this next XIV bounce to 72 the final high, or is it still supposed to target$100?

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    Replies
    1. No this is not the final high for XIV. Just a pullback. The most exciting part is ahead.

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  37. Replies
    1. great job brother made a killing on uvxy short when shouldwe buy uvxy 16 or less my charts have me at high 15,87

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    2. Everything according to plan. I'm interested in UVXY around $16.

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    3. you might see that tomm i think the market is going to pop tomm

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  38. i believe tommorow we hit 235 on spy

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  39. Replies
    1. UVXY may bounce up and down a few times in the $15 to $18 range before it melts up to $25 to $30.

      Plan to focus on UVXY until late April.

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    2. when you say 15 to 18 are you gonna trade in and out or your holding till end of april

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    3. I'll trade in and out until April 6th. Hold after that.

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    4. Do you have a specific late Apr date to target yet?

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    5. Yes, I'll post that soon.

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  40. SC
    when will you exit UVXY for the next leg.. ?
    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. If it has a decent pop to $18 in the week I would sell. Otherwise I plan to exit on a stronger spike later in April.

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  41. looks like it will be a lot of sideways choppiness till end of april ...im staying out, if i had to choose id choose xiv but its going to be chop

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  42. i say we make a marginally higher xiv at close to 77 before it uvxy is the play

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  43. know that it closed at 74.40 you still think we hit 77

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  44. definitely possible ...looking at the last 2 weeks of april for a high in xiv...xiv down some tomorrow then back up more the next day, i think chopiness which hurts uvxy

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  45. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  46. sold all uvxy at 15.60 it is my belief that we pop up to 237n to 238 on spy in next few days that is where i will take my position on uvxy

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  47. S&P 2415 next.
    AAPL has to get to 148. Then it will go to 134-136.

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  48. UVXY 14.97 minimum, possible collapse into 13s.

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    Replies
    1. i dont see collapse into 13s but you could tag 14.70
      but i have my doubts

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  49. s and p trading strong uvxy moving up seems to be a good sign

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  50. out of uvxy 15.85 waiting for better entry

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  51. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    Replies
    1. No. Where is your info from?

      Long? Not short?

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    2. look at the trades i saw it on time and sales 750000 shares green at BLOCK SUMMARY: [2017-03-30] : [ $UVXY ] : Total Volume[750,000] : Cumulative Avg[$15.78] : Day Close[$15.64] #UVXY long yes

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  52. maybe george soros or marc faber or carl ichan

    http://thesovereigninvestor.com/exclusives/billionaires-bet-big-market-crash-reason-shocking/

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/26/when-selling-starts-in-markets-itll-trigger-an-avalanche-marc-faber-says.html

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  53. Louis, was that a long or short $B uvxy trade?

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    Replies
    1. it was done at 15.78 green trade but could be misleading just wanted to bring to everyones attention

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  54. There is a big speculator or hedger in VIX options.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/31/mysterious-trader-known-as-50-cent-bets-millions-on-volatility-spike.html

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    Replies
    1. weird action vix up 65 cents and this cant break 16 bucks

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  55. SPX looking very weak. A test of 2,330 looks possible next.

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    Replies
    1. how much of a percentage of your trading capital should be
      piut in uvxy your thoughts

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    2. Would that conflict with your 4/6 turn date?

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    3. We were around 2320 5 days ago...

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  56. Check cot. For emini and spx. Commercial short nig time

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  57. looks to me we could be over 20 by thursday

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  58. i believe uvxy will be over 18 very soon

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  59. XIV does look likely to collapse about 20% to around $60 this month.

    However, the high is due this week. Most likely is that it spends a few weeks churning at the high before it collapses.

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    Replies
    1. XIV sideways for a few weeks above $70.

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  60. I'll wait and see how things look on the turn date. High due April 6th.

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  61. sold with ya 16.69 your thoughts buy before april 8th in low 15

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  62. Yes, I'll plan to re-enter UVXY around $15. XIV is high so I'm not interested. Basically I see XIV rattling around in the $70 to $75 range a few times before collapsing to $60.

    I doubt anything major happens for a few weeks.

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  63. SPX might see a little higher before it's ready to turn down. 2,380 or even a test of close to 2,400 is possible this month before it collapses.

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    Replies
    1. sc, so 2330 then 2380-2400 next for SPX?

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    2. In theory the low of 2,330 SPX could re retested, but it may not quite get that low either. I think SPX will do okay for a few weeks next.

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    3. SPX may try to retest last Monday's March 27 low first, but I do think SPX will test close to 2,400 about 2 weeks from now.

      SPX rose too fast last week. So it needed to cool off here, but Cycles are turning positive in my view for April.

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    4. If you have 4/6 turn date (which matches what I'm looking at), then I'd expected a down run during the 4/6-4/21 window (4/19 is midpiont of a turn window I have)...that would get us to 2280 I think

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    5. The last 9 turn windows highlighted in blue have led to declines for at least the first half. 1st half window would be 4/9 - 4/21. Will this be a 10th? http://imgur.com/a/PZxgh

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    6. Thanks interesting! My feeling is the timing is still a few weeks away for a larger move, but I expect chop so a minor move can happen following the turn date.

      VIX is starting to pinch for a larger spike up, but it'll pinch (consolidate) for a few more weeks before it's ready in my opinion.

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    7. Anyway, we are getting closer...

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  64. I'm in cash and will wait and see the next few days.

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  65. UVXY hit $17.50 this morning. Close to the target of $18. I decided to play it safe and exited early. It still might reach $18 (or might not), but UVXY is not at all ready for a big move.

    SCMarch 28, 2017 at 9:04 AM

    "UVXY may bounce up and down a few times in the $15 to $18 range before it melts up to $25 to $30."

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    Replies
    1. So no UVXY melt up to $30 anytime soon?

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    2. The meltup is coming, but there is consolidation first with a few moves. The timing is not ready yet.

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  66. So now I wait in cash to see as the turn date approaches on April 6th. If XIV comes down a little to $68 I would enter it.  Otherwise will wait for UVXY around $15. 

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  67. SC, after 4/6, what's the next turn date you see? Thanks!

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  68. still seems like xiv is strong till middle of april maybe the end of april and I still think XIV may make a slightly higher high, at least match its previous high

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    Replies
    1. According to the 60 Minute chart I have that down trend line going low 14 uvxy could be possible

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  69. uvxy in the low $15, u looking to buy today SC?

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  70. sub $14 for UVXY could be possible considering the turn date tomorrow...
    SC your thoughts ...

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  71. SC, When do you intend to enter UVXY?

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  72. gee just wondering if that was the bottom

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  73. gee i wonder if that had anything to do with Janette yellen
    saying she wants to sell 4.5 trillion in bonds

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  74. The 16 TD top is due late Thursday plus or minus, so likely late Friday.

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  75. We have seen the market's reaction as it approached the turn date. It collapsed.

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  76. I'm expecting prices to drop for a few days here. SPX can see 2,340 and XIV $68 or $69.

    There should be a bounce next week though.

    Next week I see another spot to short at SPX 2,380 SPX and XIV $75.

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  77. I may enter UVXY for a small trade into the $17's.

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  78. UVXY could see $18 tomorrow, and $15 next week.

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    Replies
    1. what is your target for end of month april is it still 25 in uvxy your thoughts

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    2. Yes, UVXY on track for $25.

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  79. I still think there is 1 more high in xiv back to 75 maybe 76 but the market is really unstable.

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    Replies
    1. you keep saying that didnt we hit that yesterday

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  80. I see xiv topping middle of april...uvxy topping at 25 middle to end of may

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  81. Wow, VIX and UVXY destroyed. V shape bottom for S&P, again. No surprise at all.

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    Replies
    1. i wouldnt be betting against sc remember xiv 66 to 72

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    2. It's all good. This is a choppy market. There are some really positive spots this month too. Many different ways to position for this market, and can all be successful.

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    3. i agree i think we pop up monday

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  82. I'm staying short. SPX 2,315 looks possible next.

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    Replies
    1. UVXY targets still $18 then $15?

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    2. Yes, $18. Looking to take profits soon.

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  83. good your post and i like your post very Much. you can visit my site i hope it will enjoy you. king market place

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  84. SC IS THERE ANYWAY WE COULD GET NOTIFIED BY EMAIL ABOUT U OR PEOPLE TALKING ON YOUR BLOG OR POSSIBLE A TEXT YOUR THOUGHTS

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    Replies
    1. I'll look into that. It is a fast paced market for sure.

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    2. Wonder if you are on stocktwits.com?

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    3. SC. Thanks for sharing your knowledge over the years.

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    4. Thank you! You are very welcome!

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  85. I'm still interested in XIV $68.

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    Replies
    1. When do you think the best number to exit on uvxy

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  86. Replies
    1. Didn't get the best entry in the $15's and had to chase in the $16's. So decided to play it safe and take profits.

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  87. My feeling is SPX should be down for a few days here, but after 5 weeks of decline the short trade is getting a little crowded.

    I think this month will be characterized by whipsaws, and so an upside surprise and test of 2,400 could be lurking around the corner. That would clear up the crowded short trade...

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    Replies
    1. I do see larger declines for SPX later in the month, but bounce first.

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  88. I'll wait in cash for a long entry next week.

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    Replies
    1. I would like to see prices come down a little more first though.

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  89. We're in an expanding pattern. The moves will be larger and larger as we get into later April, May, and June.

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  90. SO THE PLAN IS STILL UVXY 15 BUY XIV BUY 68

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  91. Great trade SC, do you still see SPX test 2315 next?

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    Replies
    1. I do have a target down there, but not quite yet. Right now we are basically in the middle of a trading range. Support 2,300, and resistance 2,400.

      I expect we'll test the top end of the range near 2,400 SPX first and then down.

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