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Saturday, March 18, 2017

XIV - Pullback Due - Short Term Targets

XIV has reached it's short term target, and a pullback is due.  XIV has been trading in the white channel, but the slope is too steep, and appears unsustainable.

A pullback to the orange channel with a more gradual slope is likely to occur next.

Daily Chart

61 comments:

  1. The short term target of $72 for XIV was achieved. Took profits last week.

    SCMarch 9, 2017 at 10:14 AM

    "XIV $72 next week then it'll be ready for a dip to $60."

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  2. The UVXY $15 target was achieved on Friday.

    SCFebruary 24, 2017 at 9:03 AM

    "I'm interested in UVXY around $15."

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  3. Fits nicely with a retest of 50 dma for XIV/VXX

    http://imgur.com/FW1oBll

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  4. i agree time to go long volatility

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    Replies
    1. david did you buy any i bought friday and traded out

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  5. Where do you see SPX by March 27th and April 6th?

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    Replies
    1. SPX looks weak, and expect to see lower lows in April. What is interesting is that as SPX is declining, complacency is rising. So no bottom in SPX until the VIX spikes. Need to see fear to form a low in SPX.

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  6. sc are you thinking of buying uvxy here at this level or you are still looking for 15

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  7. sc what price would you be willing to jump in on uvxy your thoughts

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  8. i bought friday as well and traded out..i think oil might have to come off first, then at the last stages of that volatility pops. i'm watching biotech too...it still looks it has a bit of strength left?

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    Replies
    1. oil to selloff first, followed by stock market?

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  9. uvxy is very close to a buy ... today..a few days..

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  10. The trump trade is losing steam. Internet searches for trump were #1 last week. Down to #5 today.

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  11. It's fascinating to watch this unfolding.

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  12. The high for SPX came in exactly on March 15th!

    SPX may retest 2,390 at the end of this week with the next low 2,340 due March 27th.

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    Replies
    1. SPX 2,380 high April 6th. Then SPX 2,270 April target.

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  13. Here SPX at each 100-pt level. A trip back down to weekly middle BB seems in order

    http://imgur.com/Ramzps1

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  14. maybe another couple weeks ..i dont think longer than 3 weeks

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  15. Hope you're wrong about restesting 2390 this week!! HAHA

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    Replies
    1. I figured it might try and retest that level, but it doesn't have to...

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  16. looks like it was yesterday, labd is a buy now too, and oil is showing weakness all looks good

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  17. SC
    Fantastic calls, you've been spot on!

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  18. Replies
    1. DO YOU SEE A BIGGER MOVE IN APRIL TO POSSIBLY 24

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    2. DO WE PLAN ON SELLING AT 19 OR DO WE PLAN ON HOLDING FOR
      HIGHER LEVELS INTO APRIL YOUR THOUGHTS

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  19. i dont believe this is the big move in uvxy i think theres still 3 weeks

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  20. Yes I plan to take profit on UVXY $19. I'll look to reload around $16 and run to $25 in April.

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    Replies
    1. I mean could just hold for April but I'll exit as I expect a bounce from March 27 to April 6th.

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    2. thank you my friend if you need any thing call me 917 816 2794

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    3. Haha, thank you Louis!!

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  21. Replies
    1. A little lower for March but not much. Low due in a few days March 27th.

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  22. your hang seng fractal looks valid...suggests a big bonce back up..and the bigger drop in a couple weeks, but i have 2 fractals an oil/spx and spx/spx that says this is this big one, no big bounces..troubling

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  23. I don't believe the final high is in place yet, the much-anticipated high that will usher in the next major correction. The pullback we saw yesterday is the 4th wave ahead of the 5th.

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  24. Today, UVXY came close to the target of $19. SPX may see a little lower yet around March 27th, but I'm not convinced that it translate into a higher UVXY at that time.

    XIV came close enough to the white support today. It hasn't quite touched it, but I'm not convinced it has to either.

    So took profits...

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    Replies
    1. great trade and great job i sold mine in the 18.20 so the game plan is to wait for 16 and to buy correct

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    2. Thank you. I'd be interested first in XIV around $66 and then UVXY $16.

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  25. I still expect SPX to rally from March 27th to April 6th target around 2,380 SPX.

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  26. i suspect this is a dead cats bounce today and tomorrow then short spx all next week down to 2280 ish

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  27. Both targets SPX 2,340 and UVXY $19 have now been reached!

    It's still a few days early for the turn date though.

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    Replies
    1. we didnt quite hit 65 on xiv are we still looking for that
      your thoughts

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    2. It's possible, but may have already hit the low.

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  28. Beautiful backtest of broken 20 EMA. Seems like that 50 dma is a magnet. Also fib confluence there. Would expect tomorrow or Monday to hit and coincide with SC's turn dates
    http://schrts.co/x2zBtE

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  29. Replies
    1. XIV should pop to $70 to $72. Low is due. Decent bounce next week.

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  30. Replies
    1. Thank you! Nice reaction to the white line for XIV!!

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    2. shorted uvxy at 19.81 covered at 18,21
      analysis on the money thank u

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  31. well its either a 10% correction begins next week mon-tues...or the spx bounces back, uvxy down, and we're looking more at the last 2 weeks of april..

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  32. still holding short from friday, i had to seeing as 2 major fractals showing a big down wave

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