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Monday, May 1, 2017

XIV - White Trendline Backtest Complete!

XIV has backtested the white trendline as anticipated in April analysis.

Next, XIV should cool off with a dip at least to test mid-fork support.  Whipsaws are expected to continue. 

Daily Chart
















Before:

April 16, 2017 Analysis:

"XIV tested the orange channel support last week.

Next, a spike up is anticipated for XIV to backtest the white trendline.  The spike up is expected to start gradually this coming week, and intensify as month-end April approaches."


Daily Chart

















180 comments:

  1. Double top? Confirmed by break below 2325

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  2. the spy must not breach 238.98 otherwise odds of a move to 237 are largely diminished

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  3. Hey SC
    Thanks for all your time efforts and hard work
    were do you see UVXY as a bottom ...

    no 1 is perfect in predicting if we were we would be billionaires lol

    thanks
    Ecommerce

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    Replies
    1. Thank you! My strategy of trading the whipsaws has been profitable, and I plan to continue... Very interesting market. The fun is just beginning.

      UVXY looking good for a pop next. I plan to enter this week. Just waiting for it to flatten or rounded low.

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  4. its getting close probally 11.75 to 12.50 im looking out 4month daily down trend line

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  5. SC, are you still seeing SPX 2355 then spike back to 2400?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, SPX is flat as a pancake right now, and that may continue for a bit longer, but yes it'll drop.

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    2. Agreed with Louis, won't be surprised see OMH on SPX, but iwm is clearly showing the path down.

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  6. i dont think we drop that far im looking 227 0n the spy max
    then a break above 2400 we will see

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  7. SC, good read on whipsaw action...
    What do you mean by rounded low?

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  8. I get it, a cup with no handle, usually formed in a down trending stock...

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  9. in UVXY again yesterday and today hoping for 50% increase on uvxy by the end of may

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  10. I expect a dip down to 2290 by the end of the month then all the way back up to 2400 for 1-2 months then the end of the summer the action begins...with a slow steady decline to 1800 or even 1600-1300 by end of winter

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  11. Next two weeks, S&P 2360s to 2420. Flagging since April 26.

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  12. If AAPL closes green, I'd be extremely frightened. It shouldn't.

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  13. qqq if it breaks 136.60 indicates a sell

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  14. anybody buying here uvxy here i believe we see 2400 tomm

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  15. sc are you jumping bin this week or waiting for next week

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  16. SC, u still looking to buy UVXY today?

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  17. UVXY is looking good, and flattening out as anticipated.

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  18. SPX has flat lined at resistance. So a dip does look likely.

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    Replies
    1. so what is the plan to wait or accumulate slowly

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  19. I'm interested under $13. I expect the quiet market can continue into next week.

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    Replies
    1. thats where i have been buying it and selling the rips

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  20. Quiet market after French election? I think volatility starts sooner than we think...

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  21. SC, notice where the middle BB is on XIV...right at your middle pitchfork :) http://imgur.com/a/GeDjS

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    Replies
    1. Excellent! Yes, we're on track to see that number in about 10 days.

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  22. Replies
    1. Very likely I'll be taking a position in UVXY today.

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    2. full position today or partial then wait until later this week for full position?

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    3. Full position. I'm not expecting much to happen this week though. So UVXY could see slightly lower around $12 later in the week. Price already looks attractive enough. I plan to hold for two weeks.

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  23. SPX took 8 days to finally rally 3 points from when I posted the chart at 2,397 with wall of resistance at 2,400. No momentum!

    I am expecting SPX is peaking and gradually fall this week, and drop like a stone next week.

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  24. I've been picky with UVXY as it has been grinding lower, but it finally looks attractive for a pop. I'm not expecting much to happen this week - flat. Next week UVXY target $16. About 10 days from now.

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  25. I noticed the New York average Nya up 4 percent

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  26. Long uvxy at 12.56 if it goes a little lower I will buy more I'm not expecting it to go lower then 1180

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  27. Replies
    1. Perfect Price came right down to my downtrend line

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  28. Lowest volatility period in 27 years in data going back to 1980! Low volatility periods lead to high volatility periods!!

    "As of midday Monday, the S&P 500 has moved in a mere 0.82 percent range over the past 10 sessions. That's the smallest range ever for such a period, according to a CNBC analysis of FactSet data going back to 1980.

    While the low volatility that has marked the prior two weeks is certainly anomalous, it is part and parcel of the more general trend of declining market moves. Out of the 9,312 10-session periods the S&P 500 has seen since mid-1980, the S&P has traded in a range smaller than 1 percent in just 10 of them; five of those periods have come in the past year."

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/08/strange-times-the-sp-500-just-did-something-unprecedented.html

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  29. Hindenburg Omen triggered last Thursday May 4th for both the NYSE and Nasdaq!

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    Replies
    1. https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/860251786841423872

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    2. Awesome, great signal with highly probability. Large moves coming...

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  30. Citi Warns Of Volatility Surge As Its Macro Risk Index Crashes To Record Lows

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  31. Amazing...VXX and UVXY both have a target of 16 (VXX) and 16.39 (UVXY) for their 20 dma...which one reverse splits next!!?

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  32. SC, what's your SPX target for this move?

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    Replies
    1. 2,355 SPX target for this move.

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  33. SC,

    XIV still on target for $90?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, it is on track to get there through a series of whipsaws. Down first then up to the target.

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    2. One step at a time. The market is going to get rocky, and the whipsaws are going to become larger.

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    3. XIV $90 max top or $100+ possible?

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    4. The question is whether XIV is forming a conventional top or parabolic top. The evidence is favoring conventional, and I'm leaning strongly towards that, but I'll keep an open mind.

      That's why it's best to just trade each move one at a time because at this point it does not matter which type of top is forming.

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  34. Since March 1st neither the bulls or bears (who held short or long during this time period) have made any money to date. This market is choppy. It's a trader's market, and that is going to continue in my opinion.

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  35. So you think SPX goes to 2355 before making significant highs from here (i.e. more than 5-10 pt move higher)??

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    Replies
    1. Yes, that is correct. The resistance is at 2,400 SPX, and we have seen only a minor overthrow of that for this particular move.

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  36. VIX historical lows...

    December 27, 1993 - 8.89...more than six years before the market peak

    December 15, 2006 - 9.39...ten months before the market peak

    May xx, 2017 - ?

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  37. SPX 2353 TO 2370 NEXT DOWN TURN T0 FILL GAPS AND THEN TO 2430
    JUST MY OPINION

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  38. SPX hit the red line on the SPX chart yesterday exactly and dropped. Likely the high is in on this move. It should gradually decline and sell off next week to the target.

    SCMay 8, 2017 at 7:25 AM

    "SPX took 8 days to finally rally 3 points from when I posted the chart at 2,397 with wall of resistance at 2,400. No momentum!

    I am expecting SPX is peaking and gradually fall this week, and drop like a stone next week."

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  39. As I pointed out earlier in the week unlike SPX which looked bearish, UVXY still looks flat for this week.

    Basically as the selloff deepens, UVXY will spike to catch up.

    SCMay 8, 2017 at 7:31 AM

    "I've been picky with UVXY as it has been grinding lower, but it finally looks attractive for a pop. I'm not expecting much to happen this week - flat. Next week UVXY target $16. About 10 days from now."

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    Replies
    1. When will UVXY break $30?

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    2. I'm reluctant to spoil the surprise lol! I do have a timing in mind, but I also expect a lot to happen between now and then too.

      Bear with me, I've been focused on the whipsaw moves, but I'll post a bigger picture chart soon as I know it's helpful to see what is happening both with XIV and UVXY.

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    3. Thanks SC,

      Looking forward to it.

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  40. looking good SC
    alot of negative talk on market crash or correction.
    your thoughts...

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  41. http://themacrotourist.com//macro/the-vix-article-no-one-will-like

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    1. It's true that normally there is no such thing as a short squeeze in a VIX etf because of the fact they are created units. There have been a few rare instances when the fund manager halted creation. It happened with GAZ and also TVIX in early 2012. I posted an analysis at the time.

      What we do know is there is a major imbalance in the VIX currently, which makes things quite interesting. Who is right the longs or the shorts? Both can be right it just depends on which time frame they are interested in.

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  42. Out 13.12, the current month is expiring soon, wait for next entry

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  43. Sold UVXY at $13.25. Took profit.

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    Replies
    1. UVXY hit the trendline from May 26th. Will look to reenter soon, tomorrow possibly.

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    2. What level will you target for re-entry? thx

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    3. I'd be interested in low $12's again for target $16.

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    4. *trendline from April 26th*

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  44. Sure enough the high is in on this particular move.

    SCMay 10, 2017 at 6:48 AM

    "SPX hit the red line on the SPX chart yesterday exactly and dropped. Likely the high is in on this move. It should gradually decline and sell off next week to the target."

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  45. Do you still think we approach mid pitchfork in XIV? http://imgur.com/a/N7dcA

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  46. Do you see any chance SPX drop to even the 2330 area or 2355 is the max for this move?

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    1. SPX 2,355 is an optimal target. 2,340 max.

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    2. You think by next Friday?

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    3. Timing depends if sideways for a few days first.

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  47. Sc
    will you be buying today or waiting for next week.

    thanks

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    Replies
    1. Let's see how it looks around the close. Low $12.

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  48. SC, target still low $12? u think we buying today?

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  49. This time plan to hold UVXY for $15 to $16. Charts still look flat, and that may be the case for a few more days, but expect UVXY to suddenly spike, probably within a week.

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  50. Hi SC, could you remind what's the big picture in SPX ? Are we seeing a major high or one more leg hiher after the next drop ?

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    1. 2,355 SPX then yes there should be a spike over 2,400 which forms major top July. I'll do a big picture update soon for SPX.

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  51. sc just wondering if anything changed since we closed above 2400

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    Replies
    1. It still looks good. Charts are flat, which is perfect, and expect sudden drop for SPX.

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  52. SC, still have some ammo left, where u see next support for UVXY if too add?

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    Replies
    1. Should see the turn soon. UVXY oversold today.

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  53. SC, Do you see a spike in UVXY end of this week or beginning of next week?

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    Replies
    1. Turn day is coming due Friday May 19th. Suspect we may see a significant down day around that time.

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  54. SC, seems like a move from here down to 2355 then back to over 2400 should take less time than by July?

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    1. Yes, good observation. The reason why is the top is going to be very choppy.

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  55. Replies
    1. UVXY 9-10 equals XIV $100+ and VIX 7-8

      Unlikely at this point.

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  56. VIX up for a week already.

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  57. In for 11.61, front month dropped, the current month is 12.05 and had a lot room to play with 6/20 expiration, cantango is reasonable. It is not just matter of VIX, it is the future term structure. 20% pop is almost baked in

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  58. There's the sudden drop!!

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  59. Out 100% 14.17, wait for re-entry, too fast to pass by the gain, this only is in and out I mean quick and nimble!

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  60. VIX term structure is extremely favorable, but we are still in up trend, this UVXY is too volertile, 20% gain, you should sideline, it is always chance to get in again. It will be choppy, and that is not good for holding, IMHO

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  61. SC - Any update on gold?
    You said that gold would be in a downtrend for years but:
    1.in 2016, gold rose by 8%.
    2.In 2017 so far, gold is up 9%.

    Where do you see the resistance? Where may your bearish thesis be proven wrong?

    Thanks and all the best

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  62. Sc r u expexting bottom this friday

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  63. WOW, great call SC, may hit both your SPX and UVXY targets today, are you still seeing a spike up over 2400 next?

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  64. awesome call SC
    out of the blue and out of nowhere as you called it
    over 30% nice

    Awesome job

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  65. Replies
    1. Congratulations on a very well timed entry and exit.

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    2. Amazing play SC! Do you still expect more downside for SPX? Would you buy XIV here? thx

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  66. Blog was correct, I gladly admit I was incorrect.

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  67. Nice, shook me out a point ago...great call and better hold, bravo.

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  68. Awesome call when everyone looking up, XIV next??

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  69. Another great call SC! Thank you

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  70. SC, another great call.. We appreciate your fantastic work..!!!

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  71. Never under estimate market, it can go so far before you become insolvent. This one is powerful, good job SC. Again I licked and did not hold long enough again.

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  72. Haha, thank you guys! A lot of fun!!

    I expect a bounce soon for XIV and still may see lower with a washout, but it's dangerous to be short. Looking for long entry soon.

    The April gap for SPX has basically filled. There is a big spike coming likely before the end of the month In my opinion.

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  73. The Trump Surprise spike up!! A bill is going to pass healthcare and or tax. Watch SPX JUMP 100...

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  74. Replies
    1. FYI for anyone who trades options (don't do this unless you fully understand the behavior and risks) - there are no options on XIV but options on SVXY behave very similarly. SC, thanks and congratulations again on a very well timed call.

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    2. What's your exit target for XIV? Thx

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  75. For the forum, playing VIX must be extra caution, your former success will not warrant your future. Cannot be cocky. This is not setup for hold longer than week or two. Same day or few days at max, and you can never get all of it, so no regrets on taking profit. This is not stock, but put call ratio, so there is no rational on why it can pump 40% a day or drop 25% next morning. Of course some relationship to the market. We play this because we are all gambler here and betting against to odds, Trend line, average are sort of ... we use them to assess the odds, so play VIX must be short term, nimble and deciplined. Today is just perfect sample if you bet on the right side, the reward is no any individual stock can compare.

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  76. Image those on the wrong side of UVXY, they all know it will ultimately goes to zero by design. but it can also burn you to death is matter of few days. Setup short around 17.00, new shares can borrow!

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  77. “Week Ending 19th May 2017…S&P 500 together with a whole series of global markets are going to change trend” – Andy Pancholi
    http://tinyurl.com/ksoewjm

    “Beware Who you Trust” – Olga Morales, May 17, 2017
    https://astrologyforganntraders.wordpress.com/2017/05/17/beware-who-you-trust/

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  78. may have discovered a critically important map for the ongoing bull market…the key will be a tradable low in the May 26-June 1 time frame…if we get a tradable low in that time frame followed by an interim high on June 8 (UK General Election & ECB Governing Council Meeting)…stay tuned!

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  79. http://tinyurl.com/n3puhn6
    VIX historical lows...
    December 27, 1993 - 8.89...more than six years before the market peak
    December 15, 2006 - 9.39...ten months before the market peak
    May 9, 2017 - 9.56...are some of you looking for a sub-zero VIX?

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  80. XIV should be ready for a bounce. Around $72. Then slightly lower washout low.

    On a bounce I would exit and look to reenter or I could also just hold for the big spike up.

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    Replies
    1. great entry again, when you say slightly lower washout low, you mean a bit lower than $67.48 yesterday?

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    2. SC,

      "Holding for the big spike up...." Is this where XIV finally breaks $100? Or are you referring to spike up in spx?

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    3. Yes Mike XIV should still see a lower low.

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    4. No, $100 possible later in summer. It may not even happen. Too early to tell. That potential move is a months away.

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  81. I'll avoid UVXY. Bears will be fine longer term, but I'm still just playing the whipsaws...

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    Replies
    1. I'll update charts soon. We still do need to wait as the low forms.

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    2. The Trump upside surprise is coming in my opinion. Huge spike!

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    3. Still waiting for UVXY to break $30..... Possible later this summer/early fall

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    4. Yes I do see that happening later in the year.

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  82. SC - Any update on gold?
    You said that gold would be in a downtrend for years but:
    1.in 2016, gold rose by 8%.
    2.In 2017 so far, gold is up 9%.

    Where do you see the resistance? Where may your bearish thesis be proven wrong?

    Thanks and all the best

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    Replies
    1. I'll do a review and update on gold soon. Silver has been weaker than gold.

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    2. Yes indeed, which conclusions you draw from this observation?

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  83. Your expecting 2350-45 first before Trump upside?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, 2,340 SPX max. Must be cautious shorting though.

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  84. Looking to take profit XIV $72.

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  85. Replies
    1. sc do you think uvxy will hit 11.25 thats what i have
      in my charts what are your thoughts

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  86. This rally is supicipus at best. Looks like a backtest of broken 20 dma

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  87. should not be moving through 2380 so easily. must not close over 2380. too strong, miraculous even. incredible strength so far.

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  88. Thanks SC. Sold XIV $73.

    Where to enter XIV next?

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  89. Easily the strongest market I've ever seen. Uncanny. The billions of dollars flowing in just doesn't seem to stop.

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  90. SC, where do you see SPX next, retest of the 2352 low?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, the target of 2,355 has been met, but SPX should retest the low at least.

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  91. SC, you mentioned 19th as a turn date, what's the next turn date in your cycles? Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Turn dates coming up May 26th and then June 2nd. Expect a washout low.

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  92. Nice bounce Friday, but we're still in the process of forming the low.

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  93. Sc since market can drop and xiv could drop to 66 what would be the best entry for uvxy my indicators are telling me 11.25 would that be a goid entry your thoughts

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    Replies
    1. XIV came close to fork resistance $78.

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  94. SC, back to middle BB...are you looking for middle fork retest?
    http://imgur.com/a/ociwz

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    Replies
    1. Yes, XIV should test the middle fork, bounce and down to the lower fork support under the orange channel.

      Chart update is coming.

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    2. SC, does this mean you don't see the big spike up anymore before the end of the month?

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    3. At this point I am waiting to see the low mature and everything line up properly. We may not see the big spike until June.

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  95. 4 weeks of rallying to go. 2407 to be floor in June.

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  96. Chris Kimble FREE email update
    “The US Dollar…has shown strength versus the Euro…since 2008…But that market dynamic is at a crossroads… and may be nearing a turning point…A currency “shift” here would have short- to intermediate-term consequences for various assets across investors portfolios….Could these reversal patterns mark a turning point in the global markets for traders?”
    http://tinyurl.com/ks5tf7n

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  97. Vix Seasonal Low Likely Set, Higher Volatility Expected - Jeff Hirsch, May 24, 2017

    "VIX’s 46.4% jump on May 17 could be the first sign that the seasonal low in volatility has already been reached this year...In a typical year, VIX typically finds a bottom sometime from mid-April to mid-July before briskly rebounding higher through frequently turbulent August and September (since 1950, September is the worst month for S&P 500 and August is second worst based upon average percent change) to a peak in early October. From then until the following April, during the “Best Six Months,” VIX is generally in decline as the market is climbing higher. If VIX has reached its seasonal low for 2017, then more days like last Wednesday could be on their way."

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