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Sunday, July 16, 2017

XIV - Sideways Over - Larger Moves Ahead

XIV has been consolidating sideways, and the sideways move appears to be over or nearly so.  XIV is approaching long term resistance and volatility is likely to increase dramatically in the months ahead.

However, XIV is still trading within the orange channel, and a test of the upper channel may be possible before the channel breaks. 

Daily Chart

22 comments:

  1. Keep it simple. XIV is respecting the orange channel lines for now.

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  2. Thanks for the update, SC. Just confirming the obvious: it sounds like your "plunge to SPX 2385 -> 2355" forecast is no longer operative?

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    1. SPX held at 2,400, and we have seen a higher high now.

      It seems SPX may attempt to reach close to 2,500 before it plunges in Aug/Sept timeframe.

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    2. Also plunge to 2350 or so. Do you expect highet high after that or lower high

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  3. One thing I notice is that not once has VIX been extremely oversold this year. We may see that very soon though...

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  4. Sc don't you think I would be smart to dump uvxy and X VXX and wait for 2500 then go back in your thoughts

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  5. SC, you still in UVXY from $10.65?

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  6. XIV is likely to become extremely overbought in the weeks ahead. Suspect the healthcare bill to pass soon. Expect a sell the news event.

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  7. im not folowing the logic sc we owned xiv at 66 shouldve just held it why not short uvxy

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    Replies
    1. Buy and hold for XIV would have worked to date, but going forward it'll be dramatically more volatile.

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  8. so i guess the plan is to hold xiv to 100 or news driven event
    then short it or buy vxx or uvxy

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    Replies
    1. Yes, the plan is simply that once it nears the orange channel target, I'll be switching back into UVXY.

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  9. Without a doubt volatility is the hottest trade on the market! Unprecedented!!

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  10. V l t l t
    o a i i y

    without a doubt!

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  11. sc with turndates 25 to 26 of july wondering if we are running out of time to reach your orange line your thoughts

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    Replies
    1. I am confident XIV to reach the orange line, and likely to overthrow the line.

      It may happen in July, but the run can extend into August, and that would be fine.

      Realistically XIV is up 10 days in a row, and some small dips and a few down days are probable going forward. XIV will grind up slowly now in my opinion.

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