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Sunday, July 16, 2017

XIV - Sideways Over - Larger Moves Ahead

XIV has been consolidating sideways, and the sideways move appears to be over or nearly so.  XIV is approaching long term resistance and volatility is likely to increase dramatically in the months ahead.

However, XIV is still trading within the orange channel, and a test of the upper channel may be possible before the channel breaks. 

Daily Chart

89 comments:

  1. Keep it simple. XIV is respecting the orange channel lines for now.

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  2. Thanks for the update, SC. Just confirming the obvious: it sounds like your "plunge to SPX 2385 -> 2355" forecast is no longer operative?

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    1. SPX held at 2,400, and we have seen a higher high now.

      It seems SPX may attempt to reach close to 2,500 before it plunges in Aug/Sept timeframe.

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    2. Also plunge to 2350 or so. Do you expect highet high after that or lower high

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  3. One thing I notice is that not once has VIX been extremely oversold this year. We may see that very soon though...

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  4. Sc don't you think I would be smart to dump uvxy and X VXX and wait for 2500 then go back in your thoughts

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  5. SC, you still in UVXY from $10.65?

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  6. XIV is likely to become extremely overbought in the weeks ahead. Suspect the healthcare bill to pass soon. Expect a sell the news event.

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  7. im not folowing the logic sc we owned xiv at 66 shouldve just held it why not short uvxy

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    1. Buy and hold for XIV would have worked to date, but going forward it'll be dramatically more volatile.

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  8. so i guess the plan is to hold xiv to 100 or news driven event
    then short it or buy vxx or uvxy

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    Replies
    1. Yes, the plan is simply that once it nears the orange channel target, I'll be switching back into UVXY.

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  9. Without a doubt volatility is the hottest trade on the market! Unprecedented!!

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  10. V l t l t
    o a i i y

    without a doubt!

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  11. sc with turndates 25 to 26 of july wondering if we are running out of time to reach your orange line your thoughts

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    1. I am confident XIV to reach the orange line, and likely to overthrow the line.

      It may happen in July, but the run can extend into August, and that would be fine.

      Realistically XIV is up 10 days in a row, and some small dips and a few down days are probable going forward. XIV will grind up slowly now in my opinion.

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  12. Replies
    1. XIV becoming expensive as it approaches the orange line. The orange line is sloped upwards so price may rise further, but risk is also rising.

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  13. SC is it time to Short XIV or go along uvxy your thoughts

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    1. I think it's early still for a large move in UVXY. XIV is up 12 days in a row though and doubt it can keep up this pace.

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  14. SC what is the next turn date on Wednesday and then the one after that is August 9th your thoughts

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    1. August 3rd, August 9th and then August 22nd turn dates.

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  15. UVXY has only been down 11 straight days 1 other time. after that it jumped 50+%.

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    Replies
    1. Interesting, thank you!

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    2. Brad gungeon sent that out today however rules were made to be broken and they've been broken this whole year

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    3. the vix is down to new lows close to 25 year lows the move down will be massive when it happens
      the question is when tomm aug 3 aug 9thg aug 24 when
      ????

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    4. And now it's Thirteen Days crazy that's why records are meant to be broken

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  16. sc obviously you have your eye on uvxy what would be your price
    27 your thoughts

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  17. Today is the first day XIV is entering overbought territory - one criteria we've been waiting for.

    Vix is not oversold yet though. SPX is attempting to reach 2500 or closer to it. SPX wants to test round numbers. 2300 was support. 2400 was resistance.

    As far as timing I would just wait and watch for ratification of the healthcare bill.

    UVXY can see lower yet. It's slowly getting there. Aim for low $20's.

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  18. I could have held XIV for longer but it is getting risky with a large drop due in August/September time frame. Any time you see price action like this up day after day it's a warning. Classic exhaustion.

    There will be spots for it later and much lower with little risk.

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  19. Low 20s what do you mean are you saying that can't be a tradable bottom in uvxy at this level

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    Replies
    1. We'll see. If this continues into August then it'll be lower. We are starting to see early signs.

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  20. It's very important that I stay on the same page as you are you saying that XIV is going to go a lot higher from here

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    Replies
    1. Best to take it one step at a time. XIV just starting to become overbought and not at the orange line yet. We're getting there...

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  21. Transports, Dow Indu telling me we see 3.1/.2% down from top. Target by early Thursday 2404/05 SPX. Minimum today 2412/13, maximum 2408/09. GDX has a target of around 21.37 down about 4.4% and QQQ has a 4.4% down side target too.

    This SPX pattern is so condensed with Y waves and now the Indu has joined in. This sudden sell-off will most likely be caused by the FOMC. I have a 48 TD low due early Thursday (15 week). Still looking for August 31 bottom. August 24 to 31 look like the final C wave down of "Z" where a good 6-7% of so of the SPX will likely fall.


    This will be a buy the dips market especially for GDX and NUGT as we go into Wave C of "Y".

    GDX has a target top around 24.25 by Aug 7/11

    SPX has a target top of August 8. I have a double TLC low due August 10 on SPX/Indu

    courtesy of brad gungeon bluestarmarkettimer.com

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  22. AAPL will go to new highs on August 1,2. Market new highs as well. Same old story.

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    Replies
    1. Transports down 3.5 percent maybe by the 9th we could be down hard tomorrow we will see

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  23. Brad today is saying 2325 spx by july 31

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  24. sc your opinion still low 20s uvxy

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  25. sc at what point would you be willing to buy uvxy your thoughts i have been shorting and going long this and making money i have been scalp trading this

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    1. UVXY can pop on any given day, but I think it'll be lower in later August. The August 22nd turn date is looking good.

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    2. XIV hasn't reached the orange line yet.

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  26. brad gungeon says this from bluestarmarkettimer.com
    The 8 td low came today. We may make higher highs into August 7/8 turn date. Very little room for new highs. Today should go positive. Target August 14 is 2265

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  27. We have seen big drops in August in recent years, but historically September is the most bearish month. Likely the high is forming in August, with September being the worst month.

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  28. SC so what r your expectation. Spx to 2360 or so in sept and test of highs again or going to 2700

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    1. I do expect to see the 2300's tested, and then higher.

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    2. are you looking for 2300 in august or seotember

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    3. At this point we are still in a topping process. Let's wait to see that mature and then finally can see a drop into the 2300's.

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  29. sc this recent move i traded in and out whats your thoughts
    on this move uvxy

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    Replies
    1. I may be interested in XIV around $88, but will wait and see. If XIV forms a base in the $88 to $93 level for a few weeks I'm interested in XIV again.

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  30. Gold up 11% in the year to date after a gain of 8% in 2016.
    No bear market?

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  31. Seeing this dip at the August 9th turn date.

    SCJuly 24, 2017 at 2:43 PM

    "August 3rd, August 9th and then August 22nd turn dates."

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  32. XIV support around $88. May see XIV forming a range in the low $90's for a few weeks then finally test $100.

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  33. Things are getting interesting! XIV playing out as per the chart posted.

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  34. XIV near the orange channel line $82. Big bounce possible here.

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    1. How big of a bounce so you expect? thanks

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    2. I tried to buy them at $81 but it jumped instantly.

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    3. moving to quick uvxy is unshortable

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    4. i tried to short uvxy at 38.80

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    5. Finally we are transitioning into a faster market.

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  35. SPX - 9 to 10 points, GDX up to near 23, NUGT +4.4% UVXY +5%.

    Support on the SPX is near 2459/60 with a tight B Band squeeze. A move below point this should bring on the expected waterfall action. Yesterday may have been wave 'b' of "z" of Z and now wave 'c', the 3rd of the 3rd wave action with a panic low predicted for early Monday where all the major cycles bottom.

    Channel support Monday is near 2265. We may see a break of this channel. Indications suggest a possible (X) wave of the larger B with (Y) and (Z) yet to come into early next year.

    GDX has an ideal top due Friday this week +/- 2 TD's. Gold has an ideal top due early Monday.

    Mars is heavily aspected this week. Now, N. Korea is going to Iran for help. As I said early on N Korea or Iran may be involved and also Trump.
    As per brad gungeon

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  36. The XIV chart was quite accurate, but there is a reason I've been cautious with UVXY. The full analysis with charts is coming.

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  37. Replies
    1. I'd exit this XIV on a bounce to $87.

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  38. Where do you see gold SC? You have expected a downtrend? When is going to happen, in your view?

    Best

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    Replies
    1. I'll post a review with gold charts soon.

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  39. sc you still think xiv can move higher

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  40. XIV will definitely hit 73.50 to 74.25 soon

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  41. XIV currently retesting the June low. However, as shown in the chart it might test the May low around $68.

    Having said XIV $88 target looks good.

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  42. The market turned down on the August 9th turn date. Next turn date is August 22nd. We may not see the low of this move until around August 22nd.

    SCJuly 24, 2017 at 2:43 PM

    "August 3rd, August 9th and then August 22nd turn dates."

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  43. "Be Careful August 11, 2017 at 8:45 AM
    XIV will definitely hit 73.50 to 74.25 soon"

    69.20

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