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XIV may be getting ready to dip to around $58 to test channel support.
I may be interested in entering XIV at the middle channel support for upside potential to the upper channel resistance.
SC - does this negate your previous post looking for a top in SPX now?
No, it still looks bearish next. A drop for XIV to around $56 to $58 should amount to a significant decline for SPX. So we are least looking for a sizable pullback in SPX. I don't think the bear market will be ready to initiate until XIV tests around $90. The fact XIV is melting up is evidence that complacency is skyrocketing which is evidence of the bear itself.
I'll do an update of this chart to show how the moves are likely to unfold going forward.
The SPX chart posted next will show the topping process in detail.
If it turns now pretty good ballpark top call. Thoughts on SPX level on first sell off?
I've been posting the 2,350 SPX target number since 2015. The target has been reached! It's just an estimate though. The red resistance on the SPX chart is sloped upwards, and so there is a room for SPX to grind up a little as the top forms over about 4 months. The top will be characterized by whipsaws. First dip around 2,300 SPX.
sc do you plan on holding the second batch on uvxy
Sold all UVXY at $20.30.
I'll look for a better entry soon. $12 to $15.
so you are expecting xiv to move up here
SC, Do you expect XIV to fall further or continue upwards for a while? thx
xiv will go higher if uvxy is going to 15
I think XIV could grind up a little next.
$73 or so.
In March there should be a larger drop.
New analysis posted!