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Sunday, April 16, 2017

XIV - Important Update!

XIV has fallen out of the white channel, and is now trading in the orange channel.  XIV tested the orange channel support last week.

Next, a spike up is anticipated for XIV to backtest the white trendline.  The spike up is expected to start gradually this coming week, and intensify as month-end April approaches.

Daily Chart
















Before:

March 18, 2017 analysis:

XIV has reached it's short term target, and a pullback is due.  XIV has been trading in the white channel, but the slope is too steep, and appears unsustainable.

A pullback to the orange channel with a more gradual slope is likely to occur next.


Daily Chart
















61 comments:

  1. The orange support was basically hit last week. So it appears XIV is ready to warm up this coming week, and heat up with a spike last week of April.

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    1. Basicalky xiv making inverse head and shoulder. 62 to 75 to 65. Then it woll take to 9

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  2. Replies
    1. Very nice!! It'll be a lot of fun!

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    2. Sc. From above chart. 62 to 75 to 65. Inverse head and shoulder.

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    3. Well, I have a plan for May, but first let's see things progress in April.

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  3. Going short, 2335 ES. Into thu

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  4. As posted on last week page, looking for the low for April 20 th

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  5. SC, is April 28th a turn date or you just expecting a spike higher next week?

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  6. Flash crash this afternoon if S&P follows FTSE. April 18.

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  7. when you refer to april 28th are you referring to a bradley turn
    date on spx and a top on xiv

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    1. But, I agree with you that maybe a good Top. I have the next possible bottom on the 2nd May I am waiting until after the 1st week of May to get into XIV I fully expect one hell of a ride with xiv.

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  8. That bradely turn will be a very week turning point. It is only ( 19/100 ) power. A little hick up, thats it.

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  9. None of my turn dates come from Bradley. They are from a proprietary timing cycle.

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  10. None of my turn dates come from Bradley. They are from a proprietary timing cycle.

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    1. ok kool still on target for 75 your thoughts

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    2. Yes, looking very strong. Warming up nicely this week. The spike up is coming soon.

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  11. Starting to feel "squeezy"!!

    SCApril 7, 2017 at 8:25 AM

    "My feeling is SPX should be down for a few days here, but after 5 weeks of decline the short trade is getting a little crowded.

    I think this month will be characterized by whipsaws, and so an upside surprise and test of 2,400 could be lurking around the corner. That would clear up the crowded short trade..."

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  12. SPX testing the turquoise channel on my SPX chart. Breakout to 2,390 to 2,400 SPX imminent.

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  13. covered my short on uvxy pre market at 15.20

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  14. SPX spike up as expected. The brick wall of resistance is 2,400. It'll probably fall back to 2,350, then spike up again to test close to 2,400.

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  15. XIV $73 in a few days, dip to $68, and spike to $75 over the next week or so.

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  16. UVXY $14's, pop to $18 and drop to $11's over the next week.

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  17. i agree i shorted at 18.50 19.50 and 20.5 thats why i covered
    plenty of room to get back in

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  18. SC, do you think where we are this AM (2360s) on the gap up Monday will had back to 2350 then test 2400?

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    1. Very little upside particularly for SPX now at this level. I do think this rally will fizzle and cool off to 2,350. Then there will be another spike up.

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  19. I do see another spike up coming but it's a week away at least, and it'll cool off first.

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  20. Overall, great work SC, this is really getting to be fun!

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    1. Thank you! The fun is just beginning!!

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  21. sc when you refer to april 28th is that the 16 td top

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    1. That is the principle behind T's. I used to post equal timing frequently, and it is really interesting.

      None of my dates come from that though. They all come from a timing cycle.

      The problem with this type of market is that highs and lows can be bunched tightly together as we have seen Friday and today. So it's not critical that turns happen on certain days, but it is helpful to have a general estimate of timing.

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  22. so the plan ios buy uvxy at 14.5 and sell at 18
    then bvuy xiv at 68 and sell over 75

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    1. Yes, that is the plan.

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    2. I 'm thinking uvxy is a buy in the next couple days..maybe end of week.. for 60% move on it..buy at 15ish sell at 23 24? by end of may? thats close to what my timing is saying?

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  23. it is my belief that we hit 238.29 to 238.46 on spy
    thats when the opportunity will be to buy uvxy just my opinion

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  24. i'm waiting for at least another day, probably 2 or 3 days. i really want to see a doji or a spinning top on xiv

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  25. SVXY
    https://twitter.com/allerotrot/status/856627217341833218

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  26. SC, nice job with XIV, great show of conviction.

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    1. Thank you! The next moves look interesting...

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  27. this gap in es has to be filled but when usually in 1 to 2 days
    anybody buying uvxy here looks like its headed for 14.20

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  28. SC, UVXY here for a trade? do you still see 28th as a high for turn date?

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  29. I'm going to wait until later in the week. UVXY can see around $11. The turn date this Friday does look like a high. SPX 2,400. XIV hasn't quite hit the white line yet.

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  30. Looks like XIV is meeting some resistance this morning around $74.50

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  31. VIX also rising with the market, a bit of divergence creeping in.

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  32. True SC I agree with you market looks on fire maybe next two might cool down then show time start happy trade cheers

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  33. Hi SC I got dust long should I keep it or in and out is better of

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    1. While Silver has been weak Gold has still been holding better. Gold could see a higher high before it's ready for a decline it seems.

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  34. looks to me like gdx will get slaped to 20

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  35. Replies
    1. does that mean rotrot you will be going long uvxy

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  36. Strangely enough i think it might be time to be uvxy?

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    1. david i drew a chanel from feb 15 to march 21 and the bottom looks like 12.03 however there is another downward channell from march 21 to 29 and down to about 14 .35 if it holds you might be right we will see its weird how market was up so much and uvxy was still strong

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  37. i think we are going to bang out 2400 by friday in the spx

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  38. SC, do you still see spx drop to 2350 first?

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    1. For SPX there's a wall of resistance at 2,400, and drop to 2,355 next week.

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  39. I'm interested in UVXY in the $13's later this week for a pop into the $15's next week. XIV might see a tiny dip here today/tomorrow, but I think it'll be higher for Friday.

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