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Sunday, January 22, 2017

XIV - Before/After Cycle Update

XIV is flirting with the orange target identified in September analysis. As hypothesized in September, once the red neckline was broken, price melted up.

The orange line should act as resistance short term.  XIV could still see higher over the next month, but is stretching towards an important high.  February 22nd may be the most important turn date.

After:

Daily Chart

















Before:

September 14th, 2016:

"XIV has been flirting with a breakout of a large inverse head and shoulders pattern.  Very bullish situation with the red neckline sloped upwards, and forks pointing much higher."

Daily Chart















47 comments:

  1. XIV should pullback short term because it has reached orange resistance. However, it seems a more important top may not be achieved until around February 22nd.

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    Replies
    1. Most likely XIV pulls back for a week and then a little higher in later February. I am waiting to short aggressively once this run matures.

      Delete
  2. XIV
    http://mymarketgeometry.com/

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  3. SC,

    What are your targets for XIV? Thought you mentioned $25 at one point.

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    Replies
    1. Xiv to be 25. What will be spx and by when thanks

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    2. I'll post an SPX chart soon with targets.

      Delete
  4. how far down do you think uvxy could go im trading in and out for now your thoughts

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    Replies
    1. I think it'll pop soon, but it can see lower in February. Possibly $15.

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    2. my question to u is 15 before pop or 15 after pop
      your thoughts

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  5. so maybe we should sell and buy back

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  6. is this going straight to 15 or its gonna bounce from here

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    Replies
    1. It should bounce. Sideways for several weeks here most likely, if it comes lower I could see that in second half of February.

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  7. SC - Are you still long UVXY? What's the PnL?

    Best

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  8. How does a $15 UVXY alter your targets... $25 to $150....now $15 to....$50?

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    Replies
    1. I still see XIV at $25 so where does that put UVXY? Let's wait to see as the bottom forms, maybe some adjustment will be needed, but anyway there is still a nice move coming...

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  9. UVXY is probably forming a low here for several weeks. XIV is at orange resistance and a turn date was today. UVXY may see lower in the second half February, we'll see, but should bounce soon.

    SCJanuary 6, 2017 at 10:15 AM

    "If not Monday then I would wait until around the next turn date of Jan 24th which is just after the inauguration of Trump. Quite possible even most probable that is important timing."

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  10. UVXY is getting ready to test and probably overshoot it's 200 dma which is currently at $162. The test will likely occur within a few months. Of course the moving average is declining.

    UVXY is currently at $25.

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  11. I agree with SC, get ready to overweight shorts S&P500 and long VIX. I have JAN 25/26 (70, 140 and 280 day cycle) as turning point. I see Bearish Divergence RSI S&P500, Bullish Divergence RSI VIX and several other patterns that show we are likely close to a High. Two example videos:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Bi99JxWs7s

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMOvSjT4IyM&t=90s

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  12. sc just curious where would you buy more uvxy and are you waiting for feb 22 to buy more i have been trading in and out

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    Replies
    1. The optimal timing is projected around Feb 22, but I will be adding just before then. UVXY should see lower for a few weeks yet. $15 is probably a reasonable estimate.

      I expect this to be the best setup for UVXY in years, and worth the patience! Very exciting!!!

      Delete
  13. An important SPX chart with 2017 targets will be posted soon!

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  14. "An important SPX chart with 2017 targets will be posted soon!"
    Thanks for it and all.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Today, Jan 30 shows as a low turn date. Next high Feb 6. Then low Feb 13. High Feb 22.

    A little selling but doubt the start of anything just yet.

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  16. UVXY up 13% today would have been nice :-)

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  17. i just find it hard to believe that this drops
    10 points from here not making much sense where would the vix have to drop 2 and how high would the market need to rip higher

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  18. Potentially 2,350 area SPX.

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    Replies
    1. thats possible i always thought 2320 at some point is that the potential by feb 22

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    2. Yes, I think the top will finish in that area in February.

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  19. Perfect! The turn dates are looking great!! Jan 24th high, Jan 30th low, Feb 6th high, Feb 13th low, and finally Feb 22 high.

    SCJanuary 30, 2017 at 7:44 AM

    "Today, Jan 30 shows as a low turn date. Next high Feb 6. Then low Feb 13. High Feb 22."

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  20. i just dont know if we get to 15 on uvxy hard to predict i was thinkin 18 its just hard to pin the bottom

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  21. 9.97 Vix will be hit again - as it was this week. Not only that, even lower in the very near future.

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  22. SC, with VIX closed at 10.97 Friday, do you still see UVXY drop really that low to 15? Do you see a big SPX drop next week, how big of a pop u see for UVXY next week? not sure if should sell after the coming pop and then just wait for Feb 22nd

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm planning to aggressively position in UVXY this month. Ideally it should drift lower as Feb 22nd approaches, the bigger picture looks impressive.

      Updates are coming for VIX Cycle, and big picture SPX. It is clear we are approaching a major turning point.

      Delete
  23. Hi SC, do you have turn dates for precious metals ?

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    Replies
    1. Sorry, I have not developed turn dates for the metals. The Cycle for Gold and Silver is bigger picture, and shows a deep drop this year into 2018.

      Delete
  24. SC
    You still think UVXY heading towards $14 USD ?
    thanks again

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    Replies
    1. Around $15 remains a good estimate.

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    2. vix is gonna have to drop hard and market is gonna have to rip to upside

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  25. Thanks SC
    lets hope $15 is the lowest and then BOOM , She runs sky high ?
    whats your first target on UVXY once hitting the bottom

    thanks

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  26. So...this is starting to look more and more like a guess...which maybe implies the same about uvxy at $15...or at least the timing of it. But that's just a guess...
    "Today, Jan 30 shows as a low turn date. Next high Feb 6. Then low Feb 13. High Feb 22."

    ReplyDelete