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Saturday, February 18, 2017

$SPX - Short Term Targets and Timing - 2017 Bear Market Cycle

Cycles and models show that the Bull Market for SPX since 2009 is terminating at red resistance. 

Price can grind higher in the months ahead though as the topping process progresses.  The model shows that the topping process will be characterized by whipsaws and chop.

The topping process is shown forming as a double top with completion estimated in the summer of 2017.   

Daily Chart

















SPX - 2017 Top Detailed Model:



















33 comments:

  1. For SPX it would not be a surprise to see a dip for a few days here considering it is at pink midfork resistance. Probably though it'll rise into month-end.

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  2. The odds of a drop in March look quite high for SPX.

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    1. It looks like a high around the end of February or early March with a low mid-March for SPX.

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  3. vix not making much sense here along with uvxy

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  4. Hi SC, are you still looking at picking up XIV around $58-60?

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  5. sc do you still think uvxy is still going to 15 market
    looks like it will hit 2400 or better your thoughts

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  6. Yes, XIV is looking interesting. It is getting close to the mid-channel support.

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  7. SPX is seeing a reaction to the turn date on Feb 22 with a dip. We should still see a higher high. 2400 a week from now looks quite possible.

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  8. sc are we still targeting 15 on uvxy ur thoughts

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    1. I'm interested in UVXY around $15, and also XIV around $58.

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    2. i guess we will see uvxy 15 before we will see 58 on xiv your thoughts

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  9. Looking closely at the model it shows this dip a few bars before the green oval high. SPX should see a higher high early in March ideally.

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  10. Tomorrow may be a high day.
    Down for months after March 1.

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  11. Two more months of up, up with S&P. Vix still has to reach 9.3 eventually.

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    1. who says the vix has to go that low that might not happen
      it could stop at 10 i have been shorting uvxy on pops

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  12. 2370 the new bottom. We will be up here for a couple of months. 2420-2370. Very safe and comfortable.

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  13. Perfect!

    SC February 24,2017 at 6:25 AM

    We should still see a higher high. 2400 a week from now looks quite possible.

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    1. i noticed 2400 was hit today and vix is down but not dropping hard where do you feel uvxy will bottom i have been shorting this for the day your thoughts

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    2. The interesting fact today was that XIV did not pop much relative to SPX. It's a warning for March.

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    3. There's not much upside but SPX can grind up here. Another week possibly. Uvxy around $16 or $17.

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    4. There will be a significant drop for SPX into middle of March.

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    5. So u r expexting drop tp 2300 and back up again

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    6. Yes, SPX should be approaching the green oval high on the chart. Drop in March.

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  14. in my opinion i believe we could see 2417 to 2425 but its not a guarantee

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  15. why dont u short uvxy instead ur thoughts

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    Replies
    1. Could do, but it's also a more complex strategy.

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