Gold - Bitcoin Signals Big Trouble for Gold

Bitcoin spells big trouble ahead for Gold.  The headlines are everywhere "Bitcoin - the new digital Gold".

Of course Bitcoin will not replace Gold.  Gold has the most history of any asset.  However, Gold is out of favour, and as Bitcoin builds momentum in a few years time people may actually believe that Bitcoin has replaced Gold!

Gold has been forming a classic Bear Flag over the last two years, and it is nearly complete.  The large size of the flag and measured moves are indicative of a large leg down coming in this bear market. 

Weekly Chart

XIV - Parabolic Move Ending at Resistance!

The parabolic move for XIV is almost over.  Price is reaching into overthrow territory.  It may become grossly overbought by reaching the orange trendline before turning down.

The "Trump trade" is coming to it's end.  The parabola, of course, will end very badly. 

Daily Chart

UVXY - Short Term Support and Resistance

UVXY gapped up above the blue resistance, and is currently trading within the fairly aggressive turquoise fork.  Price should transition into the orange fork with a more gradual and realistic pathway going forward.

It is unlikely that UVXY has bottomed, but a stronger bid is to be expected short term.    

30min Chart

UVXY - Building Strong Base

Momentum for XIV is dissipating by the week, and while XIV struggles, UVXY is forming a strong base. 

A selloff for SPX into January 2018 is anticipated. 

60min Chart

 

$SPX - Bull Market from 2009 has Terminated!!!

Cycles show that the Bull Market for SPX since 2009 has terminated at resistance.  Price has been grinding along resistance, but failed yesterday with a key reversal.

A lower low is to be expected in the months ahead for SPX to start. 

The model shows that the topping process will be characterized by whipsaws and chop.  The topping process is shown forming as a double top. 

Daily Chart

SPX - 2017 Top Detailed Model:

XIV - Parabolic Trump Trade Coming to an End!!

As predicted by the model, XIV went parabolic this year.  Price has achieved the minimum parabolic target, and is reaching into overthrow territory. 

The "Trump trade" is coming to it's end.

It is early, and the overthrow will take time to play out.  The parabola, of course, will end very badly.  Complacency is extreme, and that is foretelling of a massive drop ahead during the next 1 year timeframe.

Long term support for XIV is at $30.

4day Chart

 

Before:

March 3, 2017:

"The movement in volatility is unprecedented.  XIV has broken above channel resistance, and is configuring into a parabolic melt up. 

Complacency is going parabolic which ultimately is extremely bearish for the S&P 500."

3day Chart

Parabolic XIV 2017 Model:

Silver - Update - Bear Market Continuing

Silver has declined for more than 1 year after reaching the Cycle high identified in the Summer of 2016.  Silver has been down for more than 6 years, and is the weakest market on the board.

Silver has struggled at horizontal resistance, but may attempt to test the 2016 high with the bear market to resume thereafter.  There is no sign of a bottom.  Silver will take years to finally reach the bottom.  

Weekly Chart

Before:

June 25, 2016:

"Silver formed the double bottom blue arrow lows late last year as anticipated in the Cycle.  The result was a significant bounce. 

Silver is approaching a critical high in the Cycle.  It may seem tempting to view Gold and Silver as a safe haven with turmoil in the market. 

Any safe haven behavior is likely short lived according to the Cycle with a relentless decline directly ahead."

3-day Chart

 

Silver Bear Market Cycle:

XIV - Before/After - Once Again Approaching Resistance

XIV is approaching resistance with long term resistance represented by the white line.  Blue resistance is also above. 

A moderate decline is ahead.  Mid-October into November may be the weakest period.

Daily Chart

Before:

August 11, 2017:

"XIV has reached the targets set out in July analysis.  A low should be near with a large bounce ahead into September.

The orange channel is clearly broken, but overall the XIV chart is still quite strong."

Daily Chart

$SPX - 2,500 September

SPX is continuing to grind up towards 2,500 and is likely to test that level in September. 

It is the same pattern seen all year.  Higher highs and higher lows with a steady grind up towards 2,500.   

Daily Chart

XIV: Before/After - Targets Reached!

XIV has reached the targets set out in July analysis.  A low should be near with a large bounce ahead into September.

The orange channel is clearly broken, but overall the XIV chart is still quite strong.  Volatility is likely to increase in the months ahead.     

Daily Chart:

Before:

July 16, 2017:

"XIV has been consolidating sideways, and the sideways move appears to be over or nearly so.  XIV is approaching long term resistance and volatility is likely to increase dramatically in the months ahead.

However, XIV is still trading within the orange channel, and a test of the upper channel may be possible before the channel breaks."

Daily Chart

XIV - Sideways Over - Larger Moves Ahead

XIV has been consolidating sideways, and the sideways move appears to be over or nearly so.  XIV is approaching long term resistance and volatility is likely to increase dramatically in the months ahead.

However, XIV is still trading within the orange channel, and a test of the upper channel may be possible before the channel breaks. 

Daily Chart

XIV - Orange Channel Support Breached - Large Plunge Coming!

XIV breached orange channel support last week.  The decline initiated with a flashcrash as XIV exhausted near long term resistance.  The drop was signaled in advance by weakening performance. 

A large plunge to test the lower fork line, and turquoise channel support is likely to occur next as shown on the chart below.

Daily Chart

 

$SPX - Before/After - Update

SPX made a V-bottom as anticipated, and has traded back to horizontal resistance once again.  What is next?

Expect to see an overthrow of horizontal resistance, and a washout low. 

60min Chart

Before:

May 1, 2017 analysis:

"SPX has spiked up to test 2,400 as anticipated. 

However, the spike has been too much and too fast.  The gap is likely to fill next as shown on the chart.

The roller coaster to continue..."

60min Chart

XIV - White Trendline Backtest Complete!

XIV has backtested the white trendline as anticipated in April analysis.

Next, XIV should cool off with a dip at least to test mid-fork support.  Whipsaws are expected to continue. 

Daily Chart

Before:

April 16, 2017 Analysis:

"XIV tested the orange channel support last week.

Next, a spike up is anticipated for XIV to backtest the white trendline.  The spike up is expected to start gradually this coming week, and intensify as month-end April approaches."


Daily Chart

$SPX - Wall of Resistance Reached!

SPX has spiked up to test 2,400 as anticipated. 

However, the spike has been too much and too fast.  The gap is likely to fill next as shown on the chart.

The roller coaster to continue...

60min Chart

Before:

April 10, 2017 analysis:

"SPX should be ready this week for another attempt to break channel resistance.  The next strong resistance is located at 2,400 which is likely to be tested this month."

60min Chart

XIV - Important Update!

XIV has fallen out of the white channel, and is now trading in the orange channel.  XIV tested the orange channel support last week.

Next, a spike up is anticipated for XIV to backtest the white trendline.  The spike up is expected to start gradually this coming week, and intensify as month-end April approaches.

Daily Chart

Before:

March 18, 2017 analysis:

XIV has reached it's short term target, and a pullback is due.  XIV has been trading in the white channel, but the slope is too steep, and appears unsustainable.

A pullback to the orange channel with a more gradual slope is likely to occur next.

Daily Chart

XIV - Before/After - Next Targets

XIV has fallen out of the white channel, and is now trading in the orange channel with a more reasonable slope.  XIV is nearing the orange channel support. 

There should be a bounce and lower low. 

Daily Chart

Before:

March 18, 2017 analysis:

XIV has reached it's short term target, and a pullback is due.  XIV has been trading in the white channel, but the slope is too steep, and appears unsustainable.

A pullback to the orange channel with a more gradual slope is likely to occur next.

Daily Chart

$SPX - 2,400 Horizontal Resistance

SPX attempted to break out of the channel coming into the April 6th turn date.  Price was not quite strong enough to break it at that time and has cooled for another attempt.

SPX should be ready this week for another attempt to break channel resistance.  The next strong resistance is located at 2,400 which is likely to be tested this month. 

60min Chart

UVXY - Mathematically Perfect

UVXY rose to a target defined mathematically.  Price was attracted by magnet to the target area in perfect price and time.

Support for UVXY is currently in the $14's.  Whipsaws down and up are expected to intensify as the month of April progresses.

30min Chart

XIV - Pullback Due - Short Term Targets

XIV has reached it's short term target, and a pullback is due.  XIV has been trading in the white channel, but the slope is too steep, and appears unsustainable.

A pullback to the orange channel with a more gradual slope is likely to occur next.

Daily Chart

XIV - Upside Going Parabolic!

The movement in volatility is unprecedented.  XIV has broken above channel resistance, and is configuring into a parabolic melt up. 

Complacency is going parabolic which ultimately is extremely bearish for the S&P 500.  In fact, it confirms a major topping process is underway for the S&P 500. 
      
3day Chart

Parabolic XIV 2017 Model:

$SPX - Short Term Targets and Timing - 2017 Bear Market Cycle

Cycles and models show that the Bull Market for SPX since 2009 is terminating at red resistance. 

Price can grind higher in the months ahead though as the topping process progresses.  The model shows that the topping process will be characterized by whipsaws and chop.

The topping process is shown forming as a double top with completion estimated in the summer of 2017.   

Daily Chart

SPX - 2017 Top Detailed Model:

XIV - Channels with Measured Move

XIV melted up once it broke above channel resistance.  Resistance becomes support for the short term anyway. 

Long term channels with a measured move is shown.

3-day Chart

$SPX - 2017 Cycle - Bull Market is Over

The Bull Market from 2009 is terminating at red resistance. 

A Bear Market is defined as a decline of greater than 20% from the high.  According to the Cycle a decline of greater than 20% is forecast to occur next. 

The 2017 Bear Market is initiating.    

2-day Chart

2017 Bear Market Cycle:

XIV - Before/After Cycle Update

XIV is flirting with the orange target identified in September analysis. As hypothesized in September, once the red neckline was broken, price melted up.

The orange line should act as resistance short term.  XIV could still see higher over the next month, but is stretching towards an important high.  February 22nd may be the most important turn date.

After:

Daily Chart

Before:

September 14th, 2016:

"XIV has been flirting with a breakout of a large inverse head and shoulders pattern.  Very bullish situation with the red neckline sloped upwards, and forks pointing much higher."

Daily Chart