XIV - Short Term Outlook

XIV cooled off from the double orange and blue resistance, and currently is building support.  XIV is likely to rise into month-end.

Notice the cluster of lines up above at the month-end green target area.  

60min Chart

$SPX - Major Support Level Identified

The strength of the SPX rally from October has been extremely impressive.  SPX has not yet even reached the 50% retracement level on this dip. 

SPX was trading around the minor support on Friday, and should see a bounce.  Major orange support rests below, and could be tested prior to the next bull market run to new all-time highs.

2hour Chart

XIV closed below the pink support on Friday.  The pink line may act as resistance for the short term.  The major turquoise support rests below.  

2hour Chart

 

XIV - Support and Resistance Levels

XIV failed exactly at the double fork resistance and plunged to test support. 

Orange support was tested yesterday and has resulted in a bounce.  However, now XIV is approaching the pink resistance.   

Price could undercut the orange support somewhat, and the pink support is also located underneath.  A melt-up is likely to result later in the month.

60min Chart

$SPX - Christmas Rally Targets

SPX has little room for downside with fork support just below current levels.  A Christmas rally is likely to materialize with a high due end of December.

January Cycles looks weak.

60min Chart

XIV - December Targets

XIV is poised to head higher in December.  XIV is likely to grind up through December with a high projected due December 30th.

December looks mildly positive for the markets.  January looks weaker. 

60min Chart

UVXY - Short Term Update

UVXY did spike, has subsequently cooled off, and is currently testing trendline support.  Another spike looks possible in the short term.

It looks interesting for a move prior to November month-end.

30min Chart

Silver - Cycle Continues - Low Due

Silver bounced from the first blue arrow low, and has dipped once again, to the horizontal support. 

Silver is anticipated to be forming the second blue arrow low currently.  In the Cycle the blue arrow lows are a double bottom pattern.  Silver should now bounce for several months towards $17.

Although Silver should bounce quite well in coming months, the bear market is expected to resume next year according to the Cycle.

3-day Chart

Silver Bear Market Cycle:

XIV - Levels to Watch

XIV has been following the dominant pink fork since August.  Price reached the double fork resistance in early November and plunged.

XIV is nearing the lower pink fork support.  Price closed above the orange fork support on Friday, and price behavior at the orange support will be interesting.  

The SPX Cycle is still negative, but points to a low next week.  Most of the downside has likely already occurred.  An explosive move up is anticipated to commence from a low next week to the next high due around December 8th.

60min Chart

 





UVXY - Short Term Levels to Watch

The Cycle timing high for SPX anticipated November 6th has been confirmed. 

Notice though that while SPX came down significantly below the November 5th low, comparatively yesterday UVXY only saw a slight higher high than November 5th. 

It appears to be a double top for UVXY.  It is these subtle divergences that are important.  As well, UVXY is testing some fork resistance overhead.  Mostly likely UVXY cools off next. 

However, the SPX Cycle shows weakness into November 20th.  Therefore, UVXY should see higher levels tested next week.

30min Chart



 

30min Chart



 

 



XIV - Update

XIV has reached the target and has flatlined since mid-October, and that is because it has been pressing up against double fork resistance overhead.   

At this stage, the price action appears to be consistent with consolidation.  It is a grinding style of rally that is time consuming, but gains relatively little in terms of price.

Cycles are weak in November up until the 20th, and then December looks mildly positive.  A November pullback looks probable, but the market is not quite ready yet for the next large decline.  The VIX Cycle does show a major spike ahead, and so it will be very interesting once this rally matures.     

2-hour Chart

$SPX - Comparison with 1987 Crash - Before/After

SPX is nearing the upside target identified in September analysis.  SPX likely has some minimal upside into a peak due first half of November. 

Analysis to follow shortly...

60min Chart

From September Analysis:

30min Chart

XIV - Echo of 1997 Hang Seng Crash

XIV is echoing price action of the Hong Kong Hang Seng crash of 1997.  Notice that XIV is trading above the midfork support.  White trendline resistance is about to be tested, therefore price should dip to test midfork support short term.

Overall XIV should rise to test the September high.  A November high for XIV is anticipated.   

2hour Chart

1997 Hong Kong Hang Seng Crash:

XIV - Target Reached!

The targets for September have been reached both for XIV and UVXY.  The market is not likely strong enough yet to rally much though.  It needs some backfilling for about 1 week to firm.

Once that occurs, then the market will be in a position to spike up sharply to the next target. 

30min Chart

After:  Midfork price objective has been reached for UVXY!

30min Chart

Before:

60min Chart

XIV - Rejected at Resistance!

XIV was harshly rejected at double (pink and turquoise fork) resistance today.  XIV is likely to see significant downside in the weeks ahead.

Cycles are turning bearish into October.  Short term levels for September are shown below.

30min Chart

UVXY - Low Forming - Upside Target $120

VIX futures have collapsed during the last two sessions, and interestingly the S&P barely rose.  Complacency just skyrocketed.  That is extremely bearish going forward. 

UVXY is likely nearing an important low.  Lower fork support is just below.  Next upside target is $120.

60min Chart

Daily Chart

$SPX - Comparison with 1987 Crash - Levels to Watch

The current price action of SPX is remarkably similar to the 1987 crash (on a smaller scale).  Price action has settled down in September.  SPX is currently near resistance though.

Most likely there will be another scare with China.  The Shanghai probably will have some wobbles as it completes a bottoming process, and there is some correlation.   

Around the end of September looks positive.  The first half of October may see some weakness.  However, later in October may see surprising strength.

30min Chart

1987 Crash:

XIV is forming a base, and likely to continue trading mostly in the lower half of the fork.  Levels to watch:

30min Chart

 

Silver - Before/After - Cycle Low Due

Silver declined from the brown arrow Cycle high as predicted by the bear market Cycle.  Next, timing for the blue arrow Cycle low is due.  A rally well into 2016 is likely from the low. 

Many will say that the bear market is over in coming months because of the long lasting strength of the bounce ahead. 

However, to the contrary, the bear market for Silver still has 2-3 years left as shown in the Cycle.

3day Chart

Before:

July 12, 2014:

"The Silver bear market is likely to resume with the next leg lower due in the Cycle.  A steep plunge is shown in the Cycle down to the green arrow.

Targets are $13 for Silver and Gold under $1,000 at the next green arrow low.  Ultimately, the bear market Cycle target remains at $6.50 and another 3-4 years lower." 

2day Chart

 

Silver Bear Market Cycle:

 



$VIX - VIX Cycle Update - White Arrow Reached!

To understand the current market, it is necessary to look at the updated VIX Cycle.  Symmetry pointed to a large move in VIX.  VIX has reached the First White Arrow target high in the VIX Cycle.

The Cycle shows VIX building support in the 20's and eventually retesting 50.  There will be many large spikes as VIX establishes a volatile range during the next two year period.

Volatility is here to stay for several years.

VIX Weekly

VIX Cycle 1:

XIV - September Targets

XIV broke below the white trendline, therefore that level has become resistance.  This week, a bounce looks likely into Wednesday/Thursday.  Indicators are way oversold.

The comparison model showed that a choppy trading range would develop, and the trading range is well developed now.  Currently XIV is near the low end of the trading range. 

Early September looks soft, but overall a large bounce is targeted for September according to the model.

Daily Chart

XIV - Triangle Formation

The model for XIV remains positive, therefore the market should be forming a low shortly. 

XIV has cooled off and is trading near trendline support.  As well a triangle formation has formed and according to the model, the next push up should be quite strong.  It's likely to surge up and out of the triangle to the upside, and break out of the fork.

The behavior of the market has been consistent with the choppy sideways phase of the model which started early in July.   

Notice that XIV is forming a higher low with July.  This contrasts SPX which has a lower low from July.  This is bullish for the market! 

Daily Chart

XIV - Flashcrash Update

The comparison model suggested that volatility would increase and the market would become very choppy as the high forms.  The initial dip occurred yesterday which signals the start of this choppy phase. 

The model does indicate a slightly higher high in July/August though it should be considered possible that the high is already in place.  In any case the model suggests a bounce soon and the high re-tested, and up into mid-July next. 

At this pace the flashcrash is due August at the earliest and September at the latest.

Daily

XIV - Flashcrash Setup

The SPX Cycle analysis has suggested a bearish move ahead.  However, the market has been slowly grinding higher.  The bullish move looks likely to finally complete in June with SPX declining rapidly, particularly in July, once the high has completed. 

The high should form with churning in June, and then July looks to be the most bearish month of this year.

A comparison with the Flashcrash of SPX in May 2010 with XIV is interesting.  XIV may have some upside in the first half of June, and then complete the high in June.  The comparison suggests a Flashcrash in July.   

Daily

$SPX - Cycle Bearish - Dip to Purple Arrow Next

The expanding formation (red lines) is well defined now, and has formed as predicted by the Cycle. 

The pink arrow is in place.  A dip down to the purple arrow low to test around the red support is expected next according to the Cycle.

2hour Chart

SPX Cycle:

$SPX - Cycle Update

The expanding formation (red lines) is well defined now, and has formed as predicted by the Cycle.  Possibly the pink arrow is in place. 

This is a particularly choppy spot in the Cycle. 

A dip to test near the red support can be expected, but strong bounces are also likely to occur as the market continues to bounce up and down within the red resistance and support lines.  This choppiness is anticipated to persist during the months of April and May according to the Cycle. 

2hour Chart

Before:

SPX Cycle:

$SPX - Cycle Shows Strong Rally

SPX plunged to the blue arrow low.  The Cycle target and timing proved to be very accurate. 

 

Next, a dip is likely to occur within the next few days.  However, overall the Cycle shows a strong rally to the pink arrow high.      

 

60min Chart

Before:

SPX Cycle: