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Wednesday, September 30, 2015

XIV - Target Reached!

The targets for September have been reached both for XIV and UVXY.  The market is not likely strong enough yet to rally much though.  It needs some backfilling for about 1 week to firm.

Once that occurs, then the market will be in a position to spike up sharply to the next target. 

30min Chart
















After:  Midfork price objective has been reached for UVXY!

30min Chart
















Before:

60min Chart















88 comments:

  1. The initial price objectives have been met according to plan.

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  2. The market isn't likely strong enough to rally. There will likely be another chance to pick up XIV in the $23's next week. $25 is resistance currently.

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  3. For SPX 1925, can see 1890 next week, and then 1970.

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    Replies
    1. SC, are you looking to pick up UVXY this week?

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    2. UVXY may be worthwhile around $52 for a pop but mostly interested in XIV.

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    3. SC, XIV may be ready tomorrow

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  4. SPX 1925 reached today, wait for 1890 to pick up XIV, is that what you are seeing SC?

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  5. Yes, and sure enough 1925 SPX was resistance and now trading near 1890.

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    Replies
    1. Are you a buyer here of XIV or would you wait till next week?

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    2. Still $23 for XIV entry?

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  6. Monday/Tues are probably ideal, but little downside for the market here. Very powerful short squeeze rally due to start Wednesday next week.

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    Replies
    1. bears really dropped the ball so far, do you see XIV may come back to 23s?

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  7. XIV should see around $23.25 early next week ideally. I think this rally today is premature, and should fade back.

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  8. SC
    we saw XIV @ $23.50 already today... ?
    markets are wild thats for sure..

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  9. Yes, probably this rally will fade for a few days. VIX testing 50 dma support today.

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  10. SC, what's your exit target?

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  11. Bottom in. Gorgeous daily candle. Wow....the strength.

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  12. just a wild and frustrating day, looks like they may want to hit that 1970 target

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  13. SC , do you see the S&P rallying up to 2030 or new all time high??

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    Replies
    1. Yes, eventually, but there is more weakness ahead first for the S&P.

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  14. SC, if they want to push this further, UVXY should find strong support around $43?

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  15. SC what SPX target next do you see if 1970 hit?

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    Replies
    1. SPX near 1980 now, looks like 2000 first before any reversal.

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  16. SC, when do you see UVXY target $120 hit and what target you see for SPX with UVXY $120, below 1800? Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. The big bad bear move is coming, as I will explain soon!!

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  17. What is that circle on SPX near 2100 in November? Odd..

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  18. 5 up days in a row! SC, UVXY is in your target zone now, looks like you entered a little early. But risk/reward seems better today for a S&P short.

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  19. Tomorrow likely a significant down day.

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  20. But the cycle high for SPX is due later in the week. So down tomorrow and then a little higher.

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  21. Do you have a revised UVXY exit or is it still around $58?
    Thanks Z.

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    Replies
    1. Still $58, and a much larger, higher move after that.

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  22. VIX

    http://mymarketgeometry.com/

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  23. SC .. do you see the spx visiting 1900 by end of this month?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Yes, market toppy once again, large move down coming.

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  24. SC, what is the cycle high for SPX do you see this week?

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  25. 2,000 SPX is very strong resistance.

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    Replies
    1. next target still 1900? When do you see it be reached?

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  26. Price objectives have all been met for XIV, UVXY, and SPX.

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    Replies
    1. Does that mean down from here verses down today followed by a higher high?

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    2. The price objectives were met early, which likely means that the market will dip here, and then retest again later in the week.

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    3. Looks like 1970 was held intraday today. Do you think we go as low as 1950 by tomorrow? Or this it and back up to test 2000? thanks

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    4. May see a little lower tomorrow. I'm not seeing much downside this week though.

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  27. 2035 gap will be filled sooner rather than later. But so will the 1951 gap. Not shocking or all that interesting. Anyway, this year will end flat to up. Not down. Prepare.

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  28. "However, later in October may see surprising strength." aha..

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  29. Great calls on the price levels SC!

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  30. Good earnings: 2035-40 up.
    Bad earnings: 1868-1884 down but then 2035 anyway

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  31. SC do you still see higher highs later in the week?????

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    Replies
    1. There will probably be another attempt and failure at 2,000 SPX.

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  32. SC, is the blue arrow low reached in Silver?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, first blue arrow low was likely reached. Second blue arrow low due this year as well which provides a nice setup.

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  33. SC, with $58 target now, do you still see $120 on UVXY?

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    Replies
    1. UVXY made the move up to the midfork met the first target and declined as anticipated, however, if it breaks below $35 the turquoise support then the higher target is invalidated for the short term.

      Having said that the VIX Cycle does show VIX eventually retesting 50 but that is several years away.

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  34. Do you still see 2000 hold after another pump today?

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  35. Cycles are still positive for the market going into Friday.

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  36. SC
    are you still holding UVXY and waiting for $58 or did you have a stop in place.

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    Replies
    1. Yes, holding. My stops are based both on price and time.

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  37. We have met our price objectives but let's just wait and see how price behaves at this level.

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  38. What stops do you have in place for UVXY since your purchase @ $ 51.55

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    Replies
    1. The previous low at $35 is important. If it were to dip to that level I would look to exit on a bounce.

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  39. Today looks weak in the SPX Cycle but tomorrow and Friday look positive. First attempt at 2,000 SPX failed but wait and see for tomorrow, Friday.

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  40. When would you see UVXY head back to your exit target of $58

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  41. I'm just waiting for the market right now. We have met the price objectives but the timing is early. I do my updates at turning points in the market.

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  42. Would you sell UVXY to minimize your loss since you bought $51.55 or just a waiting game at the moment hoping it won't drop to $35

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    Replies
    1. I'm holding. It really would not surprise me if it dips to $40 first but expect it to be higher next week.

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  43. Clear failure at 2,000 as expected. However, probably it'll try again I suspect.

    SCOctober 6, 2015 at 11:11 AM

    "There will probably be another attempt and failure at 2,000 SPX."

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    1. Do you see it may break 2000 intraday, but not close above it?

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    2. Yes, a push just above 2,000 SPX would likely result in a plunge. It looks like a great short setup.

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  44. SC, what levels of support for UVXY are you watching between 43 and 35?

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    1. The turquoise line is around $37 to $38. If that is tested I would expect a strong reaction and spike up to $48 or so.

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    2. SPX above 2000 with some strength and UVXY near $38. Is this near the top more pain for the shorts. Let's see!

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  45. SC
    I'm confused as probably the rest of us , if you're expecting to drop that much what are you doing with your recent buy at $51.55 ?

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    Replies
    1. I'm expecting UVXY to be higher next week. Possibly it could dip into Friday, but higher next week.

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  46. SC, do you see SPX 1870 area is not the final low of this correction?

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  47. Well the VIX Cycle has just entered a prolonged period of high volatility. VIX will not stop until it hits 50 again, and there are numerous big spikes in between.

    So really this is just the beginning....

    Having said that currently I am getting the impression that the market flattens out here and burns some time, grinds along. Meanwhile though market conditions are deteriorating... The next big move will be to the downside.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks SC, I guess what I am trying to ask is that now everybody views the double bottom is in, do you think we have one more wave down to create a lower low under the 1870 area, before we resume maybe the last leg of this bull run?

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    2. Yes, I do expect another leg down this year. However, I don't think it'll start until November.

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  48. Do you still see uvxy going to 120 anytime in the next 2 months?

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    Replies
    1. The way it's trading I doubt it'll make it over $90 this year. A more conservative target is $80.

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  49. SC, to be clear, you see 1900 as possible floor for this month, bounce, then another big wave down Nov?

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  50. SC do you see a top here or SPX 2020. You are right. we are having a hard time with SPX 2000

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  51. XIV

    http://mymarketgeometry.com/

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  52. SC, based on Thursday's action, does your analysis change in any way, i.e SPX, UVXY and XIV targets. thanks

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  53. This is a very exciting setup for the bears! Today's price action was perfect!! Let me explain with the new analysis coming tomorrow.

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