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Thursday, September 17, 2015

XIV - Rejected at Resistance!

XIV was harshly rejected at double (pink and turquoise fork) resistance today.  XIV is likely to see significant downside in the weeks ahead.

Cycles are turning bearish into October.  Short term levels for September are shown below.

30min Chart

104 comments:

  1. 1860 area still possible in Oct?

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    1. Yes, same plan. October looks much weaker than September.

      I just figured I would keep this chart simple, plot a few levels at a time, so just plotted September.

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    1. Silver popped, it may have reached the first blue arrow low, but I will be looking for confirmation in Oct.

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  3. SC, what is your entry point for UVXY on the next week?

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  4. SC how do you have the UVXY showing 120 in october and spx at 1860s ?

    wouldn't UVXY at 120 be an all out crash?

    Thanks

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    1. No, the volatility etfs do extremely well in markets when fear is in the air.

      Looking at volatility in 2011, TVIX rose 700% between July and Oct. Most of the gain occurred after VIX topped, and S&P only declined 25 points from the Aug low to the Oct low.

      So yes UVXY can do very well with the S&P declining only modestly.

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  5. EMINI

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  6. Scary to say the least http://surviveshemitah.com/

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  7. Looking to enter XIV. It's near the midfork support.

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    1. What level would you consider entering today? Looks to holding $27 quite well this morning.

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    2. I'd like to get as close to $26 as possible. That's where the midfork support is, but we'll see, might have to pay a bit more.

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  8. dont you think markets will go lower Monday
    thats what happen 1st crash ?

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  9. Not much room for downside, since market is near short term support.

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  10. Yes, should see support 1950 give or take, and a test of 2,000 next week. Then waterfall down.

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  11. SC the bottom looks like SPX 1950-1960 then back to SPX 2000 is that your view. That means a retest of vix 19

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    1. Yes that is my view. Then waterfall from 2,000 to 1900 to 1920 prior to month end.

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  12. Cycles are quite positive into Tues/Wed next week. Then turn very negative.

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    1. 2030 could be possible or just a lower high 2,000 to 2,010.

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  13. SC, you still see Shanghai 3400 before drop back to 2850 area?

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    1. It's basically sideways here. Should see 3300 or so. Weeks more sideways before it declines anyways.

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  14. Please give me the most simple, easy to understand definition of it because I'm lost.. I'm supposed to do market analysis on my friends/family members for my class, but I don't even know what it is.
    market analysis template

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  15. Replies
    1. Target around $30.50 next Wednesday.

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  16. SC, This monday looks like a flush out Spx 1920- 1930 looks posible. one more day down, then a run to the top SPX 2000- 2020. It matters where the close is today. You are right next week it should top

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  17. VIX lower currently than yesterday's high. Excellent confirmation of bounce coming for SPX.

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  18. Sc The vix is closing at yesterdays high, we could go lower on monday, no one is buying yet. This means monday will be the bottom

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  19. Close enough to my 1950 SPX target.

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  20. Nice work SC. I believe we're in wave 5 down to finish wave IV down. Should produce Lower Highs and Lower Lows next week(s), target cash index retest of 1860, maybe even 1833 (future).
    My own thoughts: http://tripstrading.com/2015/09/19/sp500-weekly-chart-2-or-5/

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  21. As expected, wave 2 up now, Lower High, retest 1990-2000. Then wave 3 down Lower Lows.
    http://tripstrading.com/2015/09/20/sp500-my-favorite-scenario-cyclical-analysis/

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  22. SC, the target is still XIV 30.5 for wednessday. The question is because XIV went lower than 27 does that change the XIV 30.5 outlook for wednessday and I do understand no one is always right. I have been following you since 2009 you are very consistent.

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    1. Thank you!

      My forecast was for $26, and it was having a tough time on Friday getting there so I bought a little high at $27. Not the greatest fill but it'll work.

      The target is still $30.50 this week. Its best to be careful with XIV though as a very good short opportunity is coming. So I'll be conservative with XIV as I'm more interested in building a short position later this week.

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  23. SC do you offer a paid service or subscripton service. I was just wondering because alot of other people do??????????

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    1. No. Generally, I have developed Cycle models to anticipate the most profitable segments of the market. In 2011, I identified a Silver crash and bear market which is continuing. More recently my Cycle model showed a new bull market in volatility was to commence which is why the focus on volatility.

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  24. Target still around 2000 by Wed? Many people looking for 50 SMA to short

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    1. Yes 2,000 is a reasonable target, and best to be conservative.

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    2. Better to look to short a little early than push for too much.

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  25. SC rally seems to be fizzling from this morning. Lots of bearish sentiment and feels a lot like distribution. So not sure about 2000 on SPX, but time will tell.

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    1. Huge move EOD and after hours, looks like XIV is ready to fly.

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  26. SC, whats your buy price target for UVXY ?

    Thanks

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    1. Too early to tell. Market is wobbling, and if UVXY runs here, then it'll still cool off for a better entry. So I'll wait for the right setup.

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  27. Very irritating that XIV surged up after the close yesterday and then slumped overnight. Testing support again...

    Stop at $25.40.

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  28. Sc now with this gap fill on the spy, what do you think will be the SPX close on friday???????

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  29. Hard to tell with these big moves?????

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  30. SPX can see around 1900 Friday.

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. Hmm, so you are no longer expecting the interim bounce to 2000 - just a drop to 1900 right away? Thanks...

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    3. The bounce yesterday was feeble. I'm not shorting yet, but not counting on much of a bounce either.

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  31. hi SC
    If SPX can see 1900 by friday
    Then is it time to buy UVXY/VIX or waiting for the perfect time to sell in XIV and entry in UVXY/VIX ?

    thanks

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    1. I'm waiting for a better spot to short.

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  32. SC There should be a counter trend move first maybe into thursday. Any idea on how high it can go????

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  33. Stopped out of XIV. The stop was placed simply because it is trading below the midfork. That doesn't mean it won't bounce to $27 or something, and if that occurs I'll look to enter UVXY.

    I would be interested in XIV around $23's for a larger bounce.

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  34. Most likely the market flattens out here for a day or two, small bounce possible. The problem is around 1950 SPX is resistance now. We could test that.

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    1. Would you short if bounce back to 1950?

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    2. Yes, might see that tomorrow.

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    3. what price target for UVXY are you looking if bounce?

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    4. SPX may get to around 1950, but UVXY may not, would you still be interested to short?

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    5. I'm reluctant to short down here. I'll wait and see how things shape up tomorrow.

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  35. This means the top fot rest of the week is spx 1950

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  36. SC UVXY falling to your $50 zone, are you looking to enter it today?

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  37. Yes, entering today around $50.

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    1. What's your exit target and time frame, thanks!

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    2. I'll try for $48 and exit $54 around Friday.

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  38. SPX getting close to my 1950 target. UVXY getting close to $48.

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  39. There is a chance if it gets above SPX 1950 that this good reverse back up. Right now it depends on the close. I would not put it pass the Big Bankers to fool everyone, one more time, remember this is algo trading.

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    1. I expect the market to head lower for a few days. However, I do agree and am well aware a short squeeze next week will burn the bears.

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  40. SC around $48 again, are you still looking to enter?

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  41. a new daily low for UVXY, I take it you expect SPX to take out today's high and break above 1950, how much higher you think it would pop, around 1960?

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  42. SC, in your cycle work is tomorrow and Friday negative?

    This is support to be technically the weakest week for the markets historically... I figured I'd ask to see what your cycle shows.

    Thanks

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  43. I don't think much will happen the rest of the week. I'd like to see a little higher to go short so just waiting.



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  44. Buying that 48 yesterday looks pretty good right about now.

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  45. hi SC,
    Will you be waiting to buy XIV soon ?

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  46. XIV reached the green line target yesterday and a big bounce. It finally hit the low.

    However, now UVXY is near my $46 level, and plan to enter today. It should bounce back over $50 early next week. Then I'll look at entering XIV.

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  47. Do you see a lower low for XIV in Oct?

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    1. Yes, eventually, but I'm looking to enter XIV next week around $24.50 since it reached my Cycle low yesterday.

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  48. SC, do you plan to exit UVXY next week and at what price if so?

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  49. Spx 1950 should be resistance, maybe spx 1960 today but then down. Is that what you are seeing???? SC

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    1. Yes, looking to short today/Monday.

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  50. Looking to enter UVXY $45's today/Monday for pop to $54's.

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    1. SC, where do you see SPX at with UVXY $54?

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  51. IWM not participating in 255 dow rally

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  52. SC are you still seeing a short squeeze next week?

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  53. What is the new UVXY sell price and XIV buy price?

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  54. VIX

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  55. XIV tried and failed last week to recapture the midfork resistance at $26. Therefore it should approach the lower fork support around $22.50 soon.

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  56. I'm looking to enter XIV this week. The market should flatten this week and the bearish pressure ease. Which sets up the market for a very powerful rally next week.

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    1. SC, do you think S&P 500 will revisit the Aug lows before rebounding?

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  57. Since we have met our price objective and timing for both UVXY, and XIV, will have an update soon.

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  58. SC, where is the bottom on this market??? I am suspecting spx1860. Do you have a area????

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