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Tuesday, November 10, 2015

UVXY - Short Term Levels to Watch

The Cycle timing high for SPX anticipated November 6th has been confirmed. 

Notice though that while SPX came down significantly below the November 5th low, comparatively yesterday UVXY only saw a slight higher high than November 5th. 

It appears to be a double top for UVXY.  It is these subtle divergences that are important.  As well, UVXY is testing some fork resistance overhead.  Mostly likely UVXY cools off next. 

However, the SPX Cycle shows weakness into November 20th.  Therefore, UVXY should see higher levels tested next week.

30min Chart


 
30min Chart

 
 


64 comments:

  1. I mentioned yesterday that UVXY wasn't performing well, and this analysis shows that comparison.

    It suggests a short term SPX bounce that could be rather sharp. Having said that expect a lower market into November 20th.

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  2. Good trade SC, assuming exit around $33+?

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    Replies
    1. XIV can see an overshoot of the turquoise midfork on the graph from yesterday. Should see $33's although I will be conservative and look to exit a little early. I'll be looking to enter UVXY this week.

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    2. Great entry SC! When do you see $33 be reached and how long do you see this bounce last?

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    3. I'm only expecting a quick bounce here. We'll see about the price. I plan to exit early since I still see some weakness ahead.

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  3. SPX dipped and tested the lower fork support this morning, and seems to be holding. Now let's see if it can run towards the midfork resistance around 2100.

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  4. SC, are you still seeing this as a two days bounce?

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    Replies
    1. The rally is getting off to a slow start. At this pace I would estimate it can finish Monday.

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  5. Replies
    1. Are you looking to buy back at lower price or time to short now? Thanks!

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  6. Decided to play it safe. Remember the market should see lower into Nov 20th so no point being aggressive on the long side.

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  7. I'm going to focus on shorting now until Nov 20th, and then will look at XIV at that time.

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  8. I probably could have hung on to XIV until tomorrow, might see closer to $32 tomorrow. UVXY can see $25's but probably not much lower. I'll be looking to enter UVXY soon, possibly tomorrow.

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  9. BPCOMPQ 30 minute chart...things are about to get going to the downside in a meaningful way
    (https://twitter.com/allerotrot/status/664553985160908801?s=17)

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  10. Definitely time to get more aggressive shorting.

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    Replies
    1. SC, what's you S&P target on the low side. Also, the XIV entry target once the low is hit. thanks

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    2. XIV target entry is around $28.

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    3. I'm not overly bearish, 2040 or so SPX.

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  11. Replies
    1. As soon as it showed signs of weakness I exited. That bounce was very weak.

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  12. im just wondering if we doubled bottom here on spx

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  13. Replies
    1. $32ish remains a target. Will focus on shorting until Nov 20th.

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    2. bro your right on the money with uvxy

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    3. Just wondering if you are holding for a higher number

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    4. expect to hit at least $68 during November...of course, UVXY is a trading entity...it may be a very long time before you see the $25's (could be years)...

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  14. Are you selling UVXY or you're keeping it

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  15. UVXY target 32 reached. Spx bounce from here? Every bounce should be sold? Thanks SC.

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  16. SC, are you still holding UVXY? New target?

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  17. Hi, SC

    My projections

    My best projection:

    go down until Monday(Nov. 16) morning..

    Then bounce up for 3- 4 days ... So. Nov 20th intervene High..

    Then Final low day is around Dec 9

    Think about my projections..

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  18. Looking to take profit soon after the open. UVXY likely to dip today. Then a little higher next week.

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  19. SC, your SPX target reached, where do you see SPX now by Nov 20?

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    Replies
    1. It'll bounce soon but could see around 2010 SPX next week.

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  20. XIV has a strong support around $27.

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    Replies
    1. let me know brother you right on money

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    2. Are you looking to enter XIV at that target or just wait to buy back UVXY?

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    3. I'm eyeing XIV low $26 for a $2 pop.

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  21. market oversold looks like it will bounce should i buy 150 thousand shares of xiv

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  22. XIV reached the support at $26.50 and bouncing a little here. I'm going to wait and see if it undershoots a little. It is starting to look interesting though. I think we'll see a bounce to $28 or so.

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  23. Great call SC!!! What price would you buy back UVXY?

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    Replies
    1. I'd be interested in $31's early next week for a pop towards $37.

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  24. SC, good call on S&P. Where do you think it goes from here next week, 2000 or lower and then bounce into Thanksgiving?

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    Replies
    1. I am expecting SPX to bounce for 3 days and then down to form a low around Nov 20th.

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    2. What SPX level do you see for the bounce?

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  25. Currently waiting, eyeing an entry into XIV today or Monday.

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  26. Replies
    1. Looking for bounce to $28's by Wednesday.

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    2. Exit $28+ ? great trade again btw, patience pays.

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  27. I'll post an XIV chart this weekend.

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  28. terrible news, futures dropping fast after news of attacks and explosions in Paris

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