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Friday, January 23, 2015

$SPX - Cycle Shows Strong Rally

SPX plunged to the blue arrow low.  The Cycle target and timing proved to be very accurate. 
 
Next, a dip is likely to occur within the next few days.  However, overall the Cycle shows a strong rally to the pink arrow high.      
 
60min Chart
















Before:

















SPX Cycle:









 
 

111 comments:

  1. I'm expecting some sort of dip soon, but it won't last long. So I'm looking for an entry into XIV soon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey SC

      What entry level range you looking for with XIV?


      Cheers!

      Delete
    2. Maybe not even that, but should see $29's. I am expecting a pretty strong rally overall according to the Cycle...

      Delete
  2. SPX likely on the upswing into at least late February, quite possibly March.

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  3. Replies
    1. XIV has 25 handle today, I got into the CAD version (HVI.TO) but still a bit hesitant to increase position however I think market is oversold. Just wondering if your opinion has changed. thx

      Delete
    2. The Cycle looks fine at this point, no change in view.

      Delete
  4. hi,

    i was wondering how can i learn to trade with cycles? and how do you do it? where i start? is it any software, tool?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hey SC

    you dont think weekend event will affect monday market at all that is worth the risk to wait till it over before entering your XIV position?

    Also are you able to provide position sizes of your purchase? like small, medium, large.

    Cheers!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There'll be some wobbles here and there, but bottom line is that this is a strong spot for SPX in the Cycle. I expect a strong push up into February overall.

      Large position.

      Delete
  6. EMINI CYCLE

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VIX

      http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

      Delete
  7. SC, what's your upside target for XIV?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think this is a very positive spot. XIV $40 to $45 in Feb/March.

      Delete
    2. Does this target change based on the new lower starting point? thx

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    3. The target remains the same, but looking at March now since this is taking some extra time.

      Delete
    4. Hey SC

      so if the target aint going to be reach till March, what you plan on doing for the entire Feb?


      Cheers!

      Delete
    5. The Cycle suggests Feb looks quite positive, and so I would stay positioned during that time period.

      Delete
  8. VIX heading for 12. It looks quite negative.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey SC

      you got stop out of your VIX position? doesnt look like it heading towards 12 anytime soon.

      Cheers!

      Delete
    2. No, still positioned. It's choppy but overall should rise.

      Delete
  9. Now that the Greek election is done, everything looks positive until Greece looks to renegotiate their debt. They have a payment coming up in March, and interestingly my SPX shows some turmoil at that time.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Like your work SC! Maybe this might be added value to you.

    Want to know WHEN the market might turn?

    Check out www.tripstrading.com

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hey SC

    UVXY up almost 20% today

    any thoughts on today's actions ?

    ReplyDelete
  12. Yes, the market is choppy, but my view remains the same. SPX is likely to rise and VIX dramatically fall into February according to the Cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  13. those are great returns 20% in 1 day darn eh
    :-)

    ReplyDelete
  14. looks like a possible 1987 style crash within a week. Thats a "Possible crash" ...being long right now is too risky

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hello SC. Thank you for the updates. In my view, the stock market is still finding its lows. In addition, you said we reached the blue arrow. But on the chart, it seems that the blue arrow is lower than the green arrow, suggesting that the S&P will go lower than 1970.

    Thank you for your comments on that. And tell us when you exit the trade. Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  16. EMINI

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VIX

      http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

      Delete
  17. Hi SC: any updates on the Gold cycle? Wondering if this bullish trend continues - many seem to think that we have entered a new gold bull market.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I have an update to post. It'll be out shortly.

      Delete
  18. Hello SC!

    While I believed that the stock market would go lower, you argued that it would go higher throughout February. Considering the market action, you seem to be right, suggesting that your discovery of the cycle works perfectly! Congrats!

    The political environment is quite unstable in Europe but broad equity indices appear to be solely influenced by the accomodative stance from central banks...
    Best

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you! We're in the sweet spot of the Cycle, very positive.

      The Cycle shows that the market will climb the greek wall of worry. I am well aware that this is an expensive market, but the Cycle shows it getting more expensive as it moves up to Point A.

      Delete
  19. Since SPX is approaching the highs again it is natural to see some resistance and bouncing around at this level.

    Dips are likely to be small though. The Cycle is downright explosive to the upside.

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  20. People are still nervous. Once SPX starts breaking through the high though, the moment of realization will occur, and the VIX meltdown to test it's summer low.

    ReplyDelete
  21. The market is teasing the bears right now. It has whipsawed up and down for a month but it's getting ready to break out soon to the upside...

    ReplyDelete
  22. SC you have gone ultra bearish just before Xmas to ultra bullish.

    What gives?

    Your cycle was meant to show a large VIX spike months ago. It's not cycle if it doesn't at least play out to some extent.

    ReplyDelete
  23. The strategy is simply to trade each move in the Cycle, one at a time. The Cycle was bearish before xmas and the market declined as predicted. The Cycle turned positive in January, and the market is rising as predicted.

    The Cycle is playing out as expected, and I'm extremely pleased with the performance. I do believe it will continue, and huge moves are ahead.

    It's very exciting!!

    ReplyDelete
  24. SC, you bought xiv at 29.75, and you expecting s&0 to 2150. it Is already at 2100 xiv will just make it to 31 or so . you will be break even on this trade

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I expect XIV to be about 15 to 20% higher at the target area. Probably around $36.

      Delete
  25. SC,
    Just want to make sure that I understand it correctly. S&P is expected to reach 2150 or so (XIV to $36), and then there will be another drop to 1990, before the final surge to a higher high, which will take place in May/June? and then the big correction will take place?

    ReplyDelete
  26. The target is SPX 2150 or so for this move and then the next target is a decline to about 2010 SPX. Yes, then another runup to Point A which is the final high in the Cycle.

    Yes, you have the general idea.

    ReplyDelete
  27. EMINI

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  28. The Cycle is currently positive for SPX!

    I am expecting 3-4 days of churning here sideways and then spike up to around 2130 SPX later this week. Planning to take profit at that point!!

    ReplyDelete
  29. VIX

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  30. sc, how low price for uvxy where you will buy it

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Looking to take profits in XIV soon, and enter UVXY. Around $14 looks like a good spot.

      Delete
  31. Sc, when is top forming, this whole thing is low volume

    ReplyDelete
  32. Soon, yes SPX is nearing the next Cycle high. The Cycle indicates a little higher yet, but we're getting there. I'll update when it's ready.

    March looks choppy. I plan to make a few trades.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Sc, you are mentioning march to be choppy. But do you expect s&P to touch 2000 again in march, as shown in your charts before making new high

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We have not quite reached the pink arrow high yet. SPX is currently grinding up into that high. I'll do an update when that occurs.

      Yes, once the pink Cycle high is reached then the Cycle does show a downturn. Both March and April are going to be quite choppy imo. For now though SPX is on the upswing.

      Delete
  34. VIX

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  35. Hi SC, where would you take profits on XIV? around $35 or so?
    thanks

    ReplyDelete
  36. May see a small dip for SPX with some chop next few days. However, just ignore that. My model remains positive overall up to 2,150 SPX this month.

    For XIV there is strong support around $30. I'm raising my target from $36 up to $38 this month.

    ReplyDelete
  37. SC, whatever happened to the "second yellow cycle low" for uvxy you said occured last fall?

    Is that pattern no longer valid?

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  38. Is 50-60 points down your small? That is big.

    ReplyDelete
  39. SC said XIV may drop to $30... this has not been violated yet. Given that Europe will start €1.14trn ‘easy money’ program on March 9, the whole picture may not be as bad as it looked on Friday. Let's see how it goes. Maybe there is a strong support at 2060 and then the strong rally will begin there.

    ReplyDelete
  40. 2nd yellow arrow is at about 13, this time vix came there , higher lows as it show in SC picture

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  41. Yes, the second yellow arrow low in the VIX Cycle occurred early December. Ever since then, VIX has been higher. The VIX Cycle shows VIX churning sideways and choppy after the second yellow low is in place. This is what has occurred. So yes the VIX Cycle is valid, and has continued.

    All the Cycles work together. I felt that the SPX Cycle is a good Cycle to show the finer detail of how the market should behave following the second yellow arrow low in the VIX Cycle.

    I'll be showing more of the VIX Cycle as it matures. The VIX Cycle will become very exciting once the SPX Cycle matures to Point A.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So rather than show VIX grinding along, it is more interesting to look at SPX during this time period. We know the VIX is carving out an important long term low. For VIX futures, the timing is important. We want to know not only that VIX is forming a long term low, but also the timing of when VIX will make the major move. By using these Cycles together we answer both questions of Price AND Timing.

      Delete
  42. Interesting to see VIX holding up today even though the market is up overall.
    SC, do you expect the VIX to test the lows again before any major spikes?

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  43. Yes, I expect to see VIX 12 this month and SPX 2,150.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Hard to say XIV has support as you can't really chart the ETF, you need to chart the underlying symbol......strong dollar could mess with your timing....it might have made the move already...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Being objective here and I'm not trying to beat up your cycle call, so far your cycle is doing well. Where would you get out of Xiv via downside SPX target 2018 spx?

      Delete
    2. SPX should not go below 2,000. The Cycle is very positive.

      Delete
    3. By the way, you are right. These etfs do not inherently have support or resistance. When I say there is support really I'm just stating a price level based on my interpretation of the Cycle which shows highs and lows.

      My work isn't based on charting the etf itself, but rather interpreting the Cycles.

      Delete
    4. So if SPX trades below 2000 you are abandoning your call?

      Delete
    5. My call is that the SPX Cycle is bullish for about 2 more weeks to the next high.

      Delete
  45. SC, what a difference 4 years makes, huh? From extremely bearish calls on the SnP500's future back in 2011, 2012 and 2013 to you now being long SnP500 at 2000+.

    Did your model change from back then to now? It seems you are still using the same charts.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Can't imagine how the market will go up with the US Dollar on a massive tear based on rate increase expectations. It looks like the US Dollar is the only game in town now - everything else is at risk of a severe decline - just look at the Euro...

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  47. If market rebounds xiv will g o to 34 or max 35

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  48. Saw the $30's tested yesterday, and strong rebound.

    SCMarch 3, 2015 at 9:32 AM

    "For XIV there is strong support around $30. I'm raising my target from $36 up to $38 this month."

    ReplyDelete
  49. SPX dipped a fair bit, but the dip for XIV has been minimal. When that happens a strong rally can be expected, and soon. It is definitely showing relative strength.

    I think this dip either finished yesterday or tomorrow. Next week, I think it will surprise people how fast the market rises.

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  50. Planning to take profit in about 2 weeks!

    ReplyDelete
  51. Hey SC

    congrats on the calls so far.

    what your thoughts on crude?


    Cheers!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I've been watching the Russian stock market and the chart looks quite positive. I think crude will rise moderately.

      Delete
  52. VIX

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  53. How long to pink cycle high?

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  54. I'm looking to exit the position very soon. Best to be nimble here I think. Choppiness is likely to persist.

    There will be spots to short, but need to be very selective and wait for the best entries to develop. Overall the Cycle shows a rising market but choppy.

    ReplyDelete
  55. 45 point rise today for SPX from the low of the day!

    SCMarch 12, 2015 at 8:13 AM

    "SPX dipped a fair bit, but the dip for XIV has been minimal. When that happens a strong rally can be expected, and soon. It is definitely showing relative strength.

    I think this dip either finished yesterday or tomorrow. Next week, I think it will surprise people how fast the market rises."

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  56. Looking to exit soon though...

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  57. Pick up UVXY after exit XIV? What range for UVXY? 14 and below?

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  58. Yes, UVXY starting to look interesting. I'm going to examine prices, looking for some short term developments.

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  59. sc, this time from 2100 to 2040, uvxy did not move at all. if you are expecting uvxy at 14 , how high will it go in next move

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    Replies
    1. UVXY should run to $18 late April/early May. Still need to wait for it to hit a low first though a little lower.

      Delete
  60. It looks like this is your move, commodity sector revival and dollar drift lower would seem to provide a nice blow off top to your 2150....good call and patience as the chop is tricky....reminds me of 07-08 market

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  61. I dont know but to me it looks like 2nd yellow arrow. Although. Sc is expecting. 2150. March 26 to april 6. Is puertz crash window

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  62. I know using TA isn't a good idea with ETF's but XIV formed a pin bar reversal right at the upper trend line. Along with the VIX hitting the lower trend line support today. XIV - http://screencast.com/t/2sAnOkyU

    ReplyDelete
  63. VIX


    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  64. Hey SC

    have your target changed? your UVXY target will be reach soon at this rate before your XIV target.

    Cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  65. SC, some thing weird going on with uvxy, vxx, and tvix, market going down, they hardly moved. what is causing this. also I know you are holding still uvxy from 62, do you think you will be able to get out from that. everyone is expecting big decline in sept and oct, so can it happen sooner

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I figured UVXY would bounce at $14 and it did, but it does not look attractive currently for anything other than a brief bounce.

      Once the Cycle matures then, yes, a large move will be due to occur.

      SCFebruary 25, 2015 at 10:03 AM

      "Looking to take profits in XIV soon, and enter UVXY. Around $14 looks like a good spot."

      Delete
  66. The next week probably will be bumpy and head a bit lower, but after that the market looks very strong to me again. I'm raising my XIV target to $40 for April, and expecting a push to 2150 SPX starting in about a week.

    VIX should churn for a week here, might briefly pop above 18 and then collapse to 12.

    ReplyDelete
  67. If you are waiting for XIV $40 then your UVXY target is way off! Should be $10 instead of $14

    ReplyDelete
  68. Just figured it would bounce at $14 and it did, but yes, expecting much lower for UVXY.

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  69. These little $4 pops are ok to catch for UVXY, but much more interesting and worthwhile are the 50 to 100% spikes, and ultimately the 700 to 1,000% trends such as we saw in 2011.

    ReplyDelete
  70. so from uvxy of 10 where do u think it will bounce to

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  71. Yes but with the rate of decay the gains are much smaller. 1000% from $50 is $500 (if we started last Oct) vs $30-$300 from Feb vs $10-$100 from ...Apr? May?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, that's true. Which is why I'll stay with XIV until the Cycles mature and UVXY is ready to hold for a long period.

      Delete
  72. XIV also decaying . Looks like carving out right shoulder of massive multi-year H&S patten with $24 as the neckline....once that goes then the target is $7 with UVXY around $100-200 depending on the decay from whence the rise starts.

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  73. So has pink arrow finished yet?

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  74. http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=UVXY&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&b=1
    http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TVIX&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&b=1
    http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TZA&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&b=1

    all the reverse etfs are showing falling wedge, bullish formations

    ReplyDelete
  75. Possibly Payday, if so then S&P would dip to test around 2,000 in a week to 10 days, and then run to 2,300.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Spx 2300 would put XIV where? 50's? 60's?

    ReplyDelete