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Sunday, December 13, 2015

$SPX - Major Support Level Identified

The strength of the SPX rally from October has been extremely impressive.  SPX has not yet even reached the 50% retracement level on this dip. 

SPX was trading around the minor support on Friday, and should see a bounce.  Major orange support rests below, and could be tested prior to the next bull market run to new all-time highs.

2hour Chart
















XIV closed below the pink support on Friday.  The pink line may act as resistance for the short term.  The major turquoise support rests below.  

2hour Chart

 

66 comments:

  1. SC, how much of a bounce do you expect, 20-30 points? Then a lower low? Thx

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    Replies
    1. Bounce to 2,030 or so then can see a lower low.

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  2. Clive Maund, December 13, 2015
    http://www.safehaven.com/print/39842/the-great-train-wreck-of-2016

    Clive Maund, March 8, 2009
    http://www.safehaven.com/print/12782/copper-and-oil-provide-early-warning-of-an-end-to-the-global-economic-crisis

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. SC, Would you stop out or wait for to buy more

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  5. Replies
    1. Also plan to exit around Dec 30th.

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    2. Do you expect XIV to recover losses by Dec 31st?

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    3. I suspect it could take longer, but a large move up is setting for XIV. At this point I'm still in the process of building a position. There can be dips still, but I like the bigger picture for XIV.

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  6. "...today, a VIX close above 25.29 would be very bad for the market"
    Marty Chenard, December 14, 2015

    http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

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  7. I feel like we won't get to 1951 gap, but I sure hope so. Maybe 1972 in premarket.

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  8. SC, what is the price you plan to add and then to exit? Thx

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    Replies
    1. I'd be thrilled to see just under $20. Target is $35 for XIV.

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  9. Hey SC , lets look forward to SPX to make new highs.
    Would have been awesome to have catched the previous huge runup in UVXY / HVU. But hope we can catch more runups.

    thanks again for your time and analysis.

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  10. SC, do you see today's low is the bottom or do you still see a lower low ahead?

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  11. The fed has to look good on .25 rate raise...perception is the key event, not the little .25 bump...that is priced in already....I would not short this unless you can play fast with a frog ass tight stop on any vix reverse instrument.

    Confidence is what the fed is looking for with the rate hike, so expect green days ahead to bolster our mighty leaders of finance....

    SC- Charts on any ETF are not very reliable....

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  12. "Those who have seen the chart on page 141 of The Spiral Calendar ©1992 understand why there will be no year end rally this year."
    Chris Carolan, December 14, 2015

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dZqUAlS1Pqo/Vm6xvpAWwQI/AAAAAAAAUj0/tsQaQucq53Y/s1600/151214%2BChris%2BCarolan%2BSpiral%2BCalender%2Bvs%2BDJIA.jpg


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  13. If $SPX up today, would end streak without back to back gains at 28. This would tie the record (since '70). $SPY

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  14. Bought back my full position yesterday in XIV. Looking for min 2103 next week. Bears were licking their lips yesterday morning, that will come to an end within the next few days.

    rotrot, appreciate your info, whether we agree or disagree with the direction of the markets. All the best every one.

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    Replies
    1. thank you for the kind words...unfortunately, do not expect your target price of 2103 will be hit anytime soon...regards!

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  15. Hey all the bottom line
    Lets all make some awesome $$$ :-)
    SC, looking forward to further analysis and details.
    Greatly appreciate your time and efforts for all of us.

    Keep up the great work

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  16. Interesting configuration here in the markets. XIV is at the pink line as expected. I do think the level could act as resistance in the short term. If I see the right price I'll add.

    The big picture for the markets looks positive for months to come. We can still see some wobbles though.

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  17. A dip for SPX tomorrow would not surprise me, but I think we'll see a higher market by Friday.

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  18. I think dip tomorrow and rally for 4 or 5 days to 2,070 SPX.

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    Replies
    1. I am expecting a retrace of 38% or 62% before heading up significantly Thur - into next week.

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    2. DEC OPEX week average 3.41% plus returns. Interesting Aug OPEX week in the worst at minus 5.77% returns

      This is from Kimble charts

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    3. My 2103 sp looking good for as early as late this week. Bears are going to be going back into hibernation.

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  19. My 2 cents of advice is to use this opportunity to get the hell out of stocks and bonds.
    All global indices are shouting out very loudly for those that are willing to listen, that the top is in.

    Technically this is a very similar situation to 2007 and 99.99% of investors ignored the signs back then too.
    We have very significant breakdowns in European and Asian indices from long term patterns and US indices currently following suit, having already made the first lower highs of a long term rounding top.
    What we shall see in the weeks to follow are a failure of US indices to break either their November or early December highs and a prompt reversal possibly as early as next week.

    August lows will be smashed in January setting in motion a selling panic that will last until March/April with a slight bounce into late May/June and followed by a second more severe collapse into October 16

    QE 4 will be launched in 16 and that will cause a dollar collapse and ultimately drive precious metals to new all-time highs likely in 2017.

    The signs are very clearly there.

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    Replies
    1. Thank you for your take on the markets. The question I would ask. If the US dollar is going to collapse as you put it, where is every one going to go? Which currency ? Certainly NOT the EURO. My contacts in Europe says it is a huge financial mess with the refugees crisis. Social programs at the brink of collapse. Many protest across Germany, 10,000 and more people at each protest. Their is a complete TV black out here in North America with how bad socially and economically their in Europe. Certainly investors are not going to go to the CDN, Russian Ruble due to the collapse in oil prices. I see the oil prices dropping into the $20 - 26 within the next 18 months. I see the US dollar as the best of the ugly sisters for the next two to three years. We will see the Euro dropping well below par in the for see able future. Again, where are investors going to park their money?

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  20. SC, what's your take on today's actions, over 2100 next?

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    Replies
    1. We may see a little chop but overall I expect SPX to rise into Dec 30th.

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  21. Replies
    1. Louis, I hope that is not a few day trade. I see uvxy coming down a min 24.50 shortly. Fade me if I am wrong within the next few days. All the best.

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  22. SPX did in fact hit the low on Dec 14th, next high Dec 30th.

    SCDecember 9, 2015 at 12:59 PM

    "Currently we are in a down cycle until Dec 14th, and tracking the cycle quite well. Not much time left for the bears..."

    SCDecember 7, 2015 at 12:40 PM

    "Dates I am watching this month for SPX Cycle:

    Tomorrow high Dec 8th, low Dec 14th, and high Dec 30th."


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  23. If today's low was wave 4, now on to the 2090's,.

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  24. Hi SC
    any thoughts on the next market move ?
    SPX heading further down or up next 4/5 days ?
    Thanks again

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  25. SPX should rise moderately next for 4 or 5 days.

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  26. SPX & RUT...charts do not appear to be bullish...

    https://mobile.twitter.com/allerotrot/status/677637211618156544/photo/1
    https://mobile.twitter.com/allerotrot/status/677637379197444096/photo/1

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    Replies
    1. And that is because they are not. I frankly don't see how anyone can see a bullish configuration in amy major global indices across all time frames at present.
      Unless something changes very dramatically very soon then the dumping will begin to accelerate.

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  27. SC, what level would you add XIV?

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    Replies
    1. Soon. It looks very attractive at these levels!

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  28. SLV
    http://mymarketgeometry.com/

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  29. Happy Holidays to all! Life is fragile!

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  30. Be CarefulDecember 14, 2015 at 8:49 AM
    I feel like we won't get to 1951 gap, but I sure hope so. Maybe 1972 in premarket.

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  31. This is a disaster. Weekly candle on chart, horrific looking. Pull up, pull up...!!

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  32. there may be a bounce from Tuesday, December 22 into Thursday, December 24...after that, traders/investors who are bullish may have cause to reconsider their view of the stock market...

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    Replies
    1. There are some positive divergences emerging in the intraday charts but longer term charts are developing into an unmitgated disaster.

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    2. NYA monthly...bull or bear...you decide...
      https://mobile.twitter.com/allerotrot/status/678225195300163585/photo/1

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    3. No Bull and Bear

      Bear tomorrow and bull next day

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  33. Bought XIV at $24.70. Added to position.

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    Replies
    1. $28 or $29 looks likely by Dec 30th.

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  34. SPX looks super strong and resilient. Cycles are up into December 30th.

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    Replies
    1. hope ur right its has us all fooled it should have been up already

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  35. just bought more xiv down here at 24.25.

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