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Friday, November 13, 2015

XIV - Levels to Watch

XIV has been following the dominant pink fork since August.  Price reached the double fork resistance in early November and plunged.

XIV is nearing the lower pink fork support.  Price closed above the orange fork support on Friday, and price behavior at the orange support will be interesting.  

The SPX Cycle is still negative, but points to a low next week.  Most of the downside has likely already occurred.  An explosive move up is anticipated to commence from a low next week to the next high due around December 8th.

60min Chart

87 comments:

  1. What happens Monday morning really depends on whether the orange fork holds or not. XIV closed at the orange support, though it is possible the unusual attack in Paris could it push it under and dip towards the pink support.

    Either way the low is due next week and a strong move up to around December 8th.

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  2. Hope ur right brother have faith in you

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  3. Silver is near my anticipated second blue arrow low, and bounce to $17 targeted next.

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  4. SPX is following a familiar pattern, and I will post that Cycle soon. Low anticipated this week, and next high December 8th around 2100 SPX or better.

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  5. I bought XIV targeting a 2-3 day bounce to $28, and would exit in that event and plan to reload again later in the week. If it does drift lower Monday, that's ok too, because the analysis shows a low this week and move up to $32's timed for around December 8th anyway.

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  6. VIX

    http://mymarketgeometry.com/

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Joe! Looks interesting. One thing is certain, VIX doesn't spike to 50 and then just flatline in the teens. We'll see spikes in volatility going forward.

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    2. Yep..........but it still all comes down to one trade at a time. For traders like ourselves it comes down to making money, being right is a by product and targets are worthless without time. Best!

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  7. Sc, what vehicle will you use to buy silver, Slv, agq or something else. what about bottom in gold

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    1. Gold should also be close to a low in the $10.50 to $10.70 range.

      I like AGQ, though usually my Silver charts are based on SLV.

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  8. At what price would you buy agQ and for how many points

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  9. I'm going to wait a little for Silver to form a low first. Will update that chart this week.

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  10. The orange support held this morning, but the market will likely rattle around this week I suspect.

    The Cycle still points lower until Nov 20th. I decided to take the profit and will look to reenter XIV closer to Nov 20th.

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  11. To me it's a wait and see right here, and we'll see how things shape up as the week progresses.

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  12. Around $30 UVXY would be interesting.

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  13. We have 2 gaps to possibly fill at the 2045 and 2070 region. We have a Bradly model change on the nov 18th Looking to enter UVXY within the next 2 days. I am looking for a possible move down to the 1930 level before entering long. All years ending in 5 have been positive years. Good luck to all.

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  14. Over the last year, S&P 500 has failed 14 times at or near the 2120 level. That will be the level to watch down the road. If we cross that level, we may blast off to the upside for a Santa Claus rally into end of the year. Combined with the fact all years ending in 5 are positive will make it a very explosive rally that will catch the bears off side once again.

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  15. SC, futures low was 1998.50 last night, do you see a lower low than this by Nov 20?

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    1. Doubt it, but that level could be retested.

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    2. This bounce sure is stronger than expected, do you still see 2060 target for this bounce?

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  16. are you expecting down after that level

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    1. Probably SPX retests 2020 or slightly lower.

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  17. XIV has reached the bounce target area.

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  18. uvxy is now almost 30 should we wait to buy

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  19. Great calls again SC, do you think XIV could overshoot your target by tomorrow?This one day move was quite fierce!

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  20. UVXY starting to look interesting, but it might be best to let things settle here. I'll think I'll wait for tomorrow.

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  21. SC, are you still looking at UVXY? at what price?

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  22. Market rally is starting to look tired. It'll probably take another couple days to mature though.

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  23. Any closes above 2073 and you'll start seeing crazy gap ups towards 2130-50s.

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    1. We have a gap to close up at the 2070 region. I will be buying UVXY if we do get back to the 28 - 29 area. Bradely model shift coming up thou.

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    2. Fed meeting on the bradely model date wed. That maybe the ideal time to go with UVXY Waiting for the ideal set up here. If we do indeed fill the gap at the 2070 level and runs, I will switch over to XIV Good luck to all.

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  24. Hi Michael M, what does the Bradely model entail ? Stocks run hard up? Seems like UVXY up already 13% today... your thoughts...

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    1. It is usually trend change. Right now I am just swing trading the UVXY. Great action in the last two days. New moon to full moon is usually a bearish Bias for the markets. Good luck to you.

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  25. Looks like a range is forming with whipsaws. This is a great environment for trading. Can see very nice moves during the next week. This could get wild!

    XIV would interest me again just under $26.

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  26. I think XIV has a chance at just under $26 here to test trendline support. Charts still look positive. XIV around $30 looks possible next couple days!

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    1. Do you think XIV can see $26 or under by Friday this week?
      If not, I assume we should out of the woods seasonality wise till early December.

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    2. just wondering were would you buy uvxy

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  27. Gold dropped to $10.70 today. I'm interested in seeing your new chart.

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  28. SC, are you looking at UVXY or XIV at this point?

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  29. Like I said, monster bull.
    Be CarefulNovember 17, 2015 at 10:00 AM
    Any closes above 2073 and you'll start seeing crazy gap ups towards 2130-50s.

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  30. You do not short this market. Ever.

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  31. SC, what do you think of the action today?
    Still a couple of days to go for the bearish cycle. Do you expect a little pull back in S&P/XIV before run up higher into December? thanks

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  32. Hi SC

    are you still waiting on for XIV under 26? or you think we heading to 30 now?

    Cheers!

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  33. Expecting plunge in the market tomorrow or Monday.

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    Replies
    1. What support do you see on the S&P plunge? 200MA or lower? thx

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  34. Looking to enter UVXY today for surge up to $37 to $40. XIV playing out as shown in the chart, plunge to $24 to $25 next.

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    1. at what price brother for uvxy thank u

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    2. UVXY likely bounce a little here and then slide down more for the best entry. Tomorrow looks to be optimal.

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    3. at what entry point uvxy would it be 29 28 27

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    4. today is the day to get onboard the UVXY rocket ship...

      http://tinyurl.com/ndwu7mq

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  35. SC, UVXY up 9% to $31.53 , you still think it will goto $27 by tmrw, thanks

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  36. We will close above 2070 for the remainder of 2015.

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  37. SC, how high do you see SPX with UVXY 27? and when do you think we see SPX 2020?

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    1. 2100, market plunge likely Monday/Tues.

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    2. Almost 27, are you looking at high 27s or low 27s? Thanks!

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    3. SC, do you see UVXY ready today?

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  38. SC, somehow, uvxy, vxx are not making low's compared to what they made at around 2100 at the same time

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  39. Unbelievable call! Keep up the great work.

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  40. There will be no plunge. 2120 in a few days.

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  41. will the Fed raise interest rates on Monday, November 23, 2015?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-20/fed-hold-expedited-closed-meeting-monday

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  42. Buying some UVXY for a short term trade 28.26 into close. Will exit if we go thru the lows of the day. G/L.

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  43. Sold UVXY from 28.26 at 29.22 Waiting for another set up.

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  44. Monday will gap up high 2090s. 2070 floor now. 2120s...next. Low volume year end move higher. Nothing shocking.

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    Replies
    1. is your forecast based on technical analysis? if so, kindly post a chart supporting the forecast...

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  45. UVXY 120 minute trend chart

    https://twitter.com/allerotrot/status/668029707380727808

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    1. Rotrot, I appreciate your input. I have looked at your graphs. What levels on the UVXY are you looking at? I personally do not see a huge spike up like last Aug. More or less 40 and below. We are due for some kind of pull back in the markets, but again maybe only 40 - 60 sp points before we head much higher into year end. All the best.

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