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Sunday, August 23, 2015

XIV - September Targets

XIV broke below the white trendline, therefore that level has become resistance.  This week, a bounce looks likely into Wednesday/Thursday.  Indicators are way oversold.

The comparison model showed that a choppy trading range would develop, and the trading range is well developed now.  Currently XIV is near the low end of the trading range. 

Early September looks soft, but overall a large bounce is targeted for September according to the model.

Daily Chart

44 comments:

  1. Last week was bittersweet. A bounce up off the white trendline would have resulted in a higher high for XIV.

    However, because it broke below we have to adjust accordingly.

    We do have excellent confirmation of the model!

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    1. SC, what is the exit target for XIV now after the last big drop? Is it still 51-52 range?

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    2. I doubt it's going to see the higher high now, however, the model still does show a very strong bounce in Sept for the market and XIV.

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  2. Looks like a possible H&S with a neckline pointing down, supposedly the most bearish chart formation... but not clear on when you are seeing potential for greatest downside. First half of October?

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    1. Exactly, the model showed a H&S, but the Head was actually a slightly lower high...

      I'll let the model mature in September, and then will post the downside timing and targets. Right now we're in this choppy phase with more than a month to go.

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    2. Still need Right shoulder to form in September.

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  3. I'll be looking to exit XIV Wed/Thurs this week on the bounce shown on the chart. Then re-enter XIV first week of September for a stronger bounce.

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    1. What is your exit target this week? Thanks

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  4. thanks for the updates SC. Do you have a target range for the XIV exit? Also, what would S&P correspond to on the bounce?

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  5. Should bounce to $39's this week, and will plan to exit and re-enter around $33 or $34 first week in Sept.

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    Replies
    1. Shall we flip to UVXY after sold XIV this week before re-entering for a short term?

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  6. S&P 1980 will cap all rallies for next 4-6 weeks. We'll see what happens at 1904, about 10-11% down from high.

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  7. Technicals don't apply at this point. Now I see below 1900, easy.

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  8. It sure looks like the flash crash is happening right now. Full on panic in progress, SPX futures down 2.5% so far, China down 8% right now.

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  9. changing cycles or charts to fit a desired or preconceived objective/perspective is dangerous..... and that is what happened here...
    by changing the cycle to pitchfork etc...you went away from your plan...the plan is the most important part of investing...


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  10. SC, I think you changed your cycles to fit your objective and that is a dangerous way to invest. You have made great calls but your now letting bias change the way your original dates were supposed to play out...

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  11. XIV low today of $22.88!! SC, I bet it changes the plans here a bit?
    Thanks
    Z.

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  12. Stopped out at $34. Looking to enter again around $27.

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  13. By implication market is going lower based on your post

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  14. Obviously i'm looking at the crash phase of the model now. We did see the large bounce shown in the model this morning that followed the crash. chart coming later today.

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  15. Crash target of $25 for XIV met this morning.

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  16. It seems to me we already at wave 4, the long tail on the crash chart that's what we just got, the last few days too big for just wave 1, so we have a bounce the next few days, then final flush to finish wave 5.

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  17. S&P 500 low today was 1867. Do you think it goes lower? If yes than by how much? Thanks Z.

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  18. SC, What's your exit target for XIV? Thanks

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  19. Hi SC,
    nice roller coaster ride that's for sure
    any thoughts on your exit strategy on your recent buy ?
    thanks

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  20. Do you see the crash done or this is just a bounce before lower?

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  21. The crash is over but it's still going to be a wild market for months to come. Many updates and charts coming which will explain things.

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  22. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  23. Up she goes ,
    But a long way from your initial buy of $40 and $47,
    when do you foresee hitting your $39 target , your mentioned sell by wed/thrus this week ?

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    1. My avg was around $42.35. Sold yesterday at $34. Down $8.35 a unit. Then bought at $27. Up $3 to $4 this morning on that position. So overall Down currently $4 to $5 a unit.

      One more good trade and I'll be back into profits.

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  24. I'm looking for an XIV high this week Wed/Thurs maybe not that much higher $32, then could dip to $26 next week and surge up to $39 or better in September.

    There's going to be volatile swings up and down for weeks and months as the market stabilizes, but the market tends to perform well after these flashcrashes so the surprises will be to the upside.

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    Replies
    1. SC, is it worthwhile to take a quick short position UVXY on the swing low? There could be a 30%+ move there.
      Thanks
      Z.

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    2. I think there will be a spot for UVXY later in September that should be decent. I'll wait a while for it to settle and cool off.

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  25. We should see Asian markets recover significantly tonight, the effect of which should be a positive spill over to the western markets on Thursday furthering the short term upside. Friday may be a bit dicey.

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  26. XIV doesn't seem to reflect the ratio correlate to UVXY today...

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  27. Are you looking to buy some UVXY on the turn this week Wed/Thurs?

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    1. I'm thinking about that, but will wait and see how things develop next.

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  28. What would be your SPX target for September? Do you see the high is in for this year?

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