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Tuesday, August 25, 2015

$VIX - VIX Cycle Update - White Arrow Reached!

To understand the current market, it is necessary to look at the updated VIX Cycle.  Symmetry pointed to a large move in VIX.  VIX has reached the First White Arrow target high in the VIX Cycle.

The Cycle shows VIX building support in the 20's and eventually retesting 50.  There will be many large spikes as VIX establishes a volatile range during the next two year period.

Volatility is here to stay for several years.

VIX Weekly
















VIX Cycle 1:

53 comments:

  1. The days of VIX grinding along stagnant in the 10-15 range are over. Large spikes in VIX will be common going forward for several years.

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  2. The VIX high is likely in place for this year, but eventually it'll test 50 again.

    We have transitioned into a much more volatile environment, and it is just the beginning.

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  3. SC, When we have a high volatile environment, is that mean that is going to be bad for XIV but good for UVXY.

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    1. SC, what is a good entry price for XIV now? Is 26 or else? Thanks

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    2. The VIX should trend lower for about a year next. Both UVXY and XIV will do well at times. It's a traders market.

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  4. Markets are still struggling here and VIX and VIX futures are staying stubbornly high. I think XIV could trade at the Monday lows again by next week. Markets seem to want to go lower. But in these markets, who knows! I am now watching from the sidelines waiting for a better entry to XIV.

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  5. SC, XIV has struggled at at 26-27 level now. S&P and Dow are also struggling to take out highs from previous couple of days. With time running out, would you still consider hanging on or exiting and trying another entry sometime next week? thanks

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  6. Are you still looking to exit XIV on Wed/Thurs?

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  7. SC, are you planning to take profits today?

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  8. I'll wait a few more days probably in XIV. I think there is time for a bearish trade next week.

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  9. Bears need to be nimble. Next week looks soft, but September is going to see a huge bounce for the market.

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  10. What's your take on the China Shanghai market? Thanks!

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    1. The weekly chart looks strong. It should do ok next year.

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    2. Any chance back up to the 5000 area or even new high after this huge crash?

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  11. Do you still see SPX reach 2350?

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    1. Yes, can see that a year from now.

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  12. XIV not really popping since the markets bottomed, is that saying a lower low still coming after the bounce?

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  13. "Next week looks soft, but September is going to see a huge bounce for the market"

    Wait a sec!....what happened to the huge collapse coming in September??!.....if the bounce is as big as your reversal it is going to be huge indeed!

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  14. Do you still think a bounce to $32 is possible next week? Thanks

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  15. Asian markets slide Monday !
    wow we missed this Big Time !

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  16. XIV the previous low of $23 today. The market still hasn't made lower lows as yet. So my guess is, with the job numbers and the rate jitters still to come, there may be another 15-20% downside left which would take it to the $18 handle. If, there is rate hike, good luck finding a bottom!

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  17. Will xiv ever reach $30+ again?

    I suppose xiv $52 is just a pipe dream now?

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  18. XIV is likely to bounce very strongly this month. Notice whereas the Dow and SPX have a death cross, XIV does not. XIV has met the crash target of $25, and a little more. Big bounce coming.

    Next target is $38 in the model.

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  19. As well the VIX Cycle high has already been met. VIX made a little bounce off the white line, the VIX Cycle shows a series of lower highs for VIX ahead.

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  20. Hi SC. When do u think XIV will jump this month?

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  21. So new xiv target s $38 and $52 is no longer option?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, the high truncated so XIV saw $50.

      Next target is $38 this month.

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  22. VIX

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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    1. Joed, your analysis seems to suggest a retest of the lows by mid September after a bounce, which jives with the timing of the rate decision.

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  23. SC, give the high VIX level, even after the bounce today, is it possible for it to retest the lows in the next couple of weeks before the bounce. Or is it straight up from here?

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  24. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/risk-big-stock-drops-grows-130619396.html

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  25. Market was a little soft this week as expected. Notice though that VIX is declining. Expect a much stronger market this month.

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  26. Do you have a SPX target for this month?

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  27. SC, is the next target for XIV still $38 or lower after the recent huge selloff?

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  28. Potential for a market melt-up to 2,100 here if SPX breaks out above 2,000. Otherwise if it dips off 2,000, then it should see higher later in the month closer to 2,050 anyways. Either way the market should see significantly higher this month.

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    1. How low you think it may dip, not a lower low below 1900 which everyone seems to be expecting, right?

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    2. Charts and Cycles are turning bullish. I'm expecting 1900 to hold here but may dip for a few days. Next week I'm confident that we'll see a test over 2,000 SPX.

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  29. As well, I took an extensive look at Shanghai. I am anticipating a rise for 6 to 7 months next to the target of 4,300 possibly it could even overshoot the target and reach 4,500.

    So if the Chinese market is leading, then the US market should follow with 6 to 7 months of up pressure next.

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  30. SC, don't you think upside is limited till the FED rate decision uncertainty is removed next week. The 1980-90 level could provide resistance till next week.

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    1. That's the question to ask. Is the market ready to break out or not quite yet? It's getting very close...pressing up against resistance.

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    2. It is quite possible that we're in a holding pattern, churning into next week. Might need a little more time until the market is ready to break out. Good point!

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  31. SC, do you see oil has already reached a bottom or do you still see lower targets? If China and oil stabilized, the market sure will rally on those.

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  32. My oil target was $35. Oil reached $38 on the last dip. Might see $35 yet, but it came very close already.

    I do agree both China and oil are either in a position to see strong rallies or will be in position shortly. I also think the US market will likely be correlated somewhat with China for a while as long as China is in the news. My target for Shanghai is 30% higher 6 to 7 months out.

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  33. XIV has formed a trading range $21 to $26. Next week we should see a pop above that $28 to $29.

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  34. Replies
    1. Right now XIV has built a range $21 to $26, and this can continue. I expect we'll see a pop to $28 or $29, cool off and run to $38 to $40.

      We'll probably see whipsaws next week, around the end of Sept looks quite positive.

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  35. SC, do you still see Gold/Silver reach a significant low by the end of this month?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, actually I am planning to update the chart today.

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