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Friday, December 4, 2015

XIV - Support and Resistance Levels

XIV failed exactly at the double fork resistance and plunged to test support. 

Orange support was tested yesterday and has resulted in a bounce.  However, now XIV is approaching the pink resistance.   

Price could undercut the orange support somewhat, and the pink support is also located underneath.  A melt-up is likely to result later in the month.

60min Chart

129 comments:

  1. XIV bouncing up from the $27 orange support. It's currently testing resistance in the $29 to $30 range.

    Stronger support $25 to $26.

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  2. SC, any updates on gold/silver, big bounce today, 2nd low formed?

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    Replies
    1. Definitely a nice pop. It's a little early to tell, but let's see how things develop.

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  3. SC, do you think this support of $25/$26 is tested today or sometime later in the next week or so?

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    Replies
    1. We'll see. I'm not sure it'll get that low, but too early to say it's bottomed either.

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  4. Are you looking at bounce then drop to $26 or on the way to $34 now?

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    Replies
    1. Huge bounce so far, I think cool off into the $28's next, and then we'll see.

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    2. This is going up way too fast, would you be interested in UVXY here?

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    3. I mean add some at this level

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    4. Probably best to just focus on XIV.

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  5. UVXY 26.58 Waiting for a retrace in the markets to get back into XIV It has gone to far , to fast to buy at these levels.Good luck every one

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    Replies
    1. That statement was not very clear. I bought at 26.58 UVXY I am going to do a few swing trades for some nickles and dimes today.

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    2. Sold UVXY 26.88 for some beer money

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  6. Time to dip my toe in to buy UVXY in $ 25.00 - 25.85 level

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  7. Markets showing a lot of strength today. A good confirmation that the market is likely to surprise to the upside this month.

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  8. Should see a small pullback. Looking to enter XIV in $28's.

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    Replies
    1. What level do you see SPX pullback to?

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    2. SC, looks like your target of $28's is already her today.

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  9. SC, what's your take on the China Shanghai market, you still see continued upside into 4000 there?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, it'll do well for several more months.

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  10. UVXY came down into the zone I was looking for.24.97 as of now. I will be buying 3 batches in this area. Willing to hold into next week. Good luck to all.

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  11. Today will be the 4th 1% move (up or down) for the $SPX in December. The past three years there were 5, 3, and 4 one percent moves. $SPY

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  12. A cool off in XIV would fit with what appears to be a symmetrical triangle forming on the SPX which would also fit with your bigger move later this month as the SPX breaks out of the triangle.

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    Replies
    1. Yes agree, good observation, thank you!

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  13. Just regards to gold. The COT is the most bullish I have ever seen in particulalry in regard to large specs.. Certainly commercials could add very quickly to shorts on any rise but given historical data this could be a major bottom.

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  14. Oil is repricing, market just can't handle it. Down down....and more down coming. Something is very wrong, especially for December. Nervous. Although energy only 7% of S&P index, oil is saying global growth is extremely bad...zero demand. Dangerous market.

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  15. Replies
    1. What's your exit target range for XIV?

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    2. XIV could test $31's at the turquoise resistance this week. Ultimately this month upside target is $34 to $35 around the end of December.

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  16. Was looking for a small pullback, and we've seen that this morning.

    SCDecember 4, 2015 at 11:20 AM

    "Should see a small pullback. Looking to enter XIV in $28's."

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  17. Sold UVXY from late Fiday. UVXY price 26.69 - 26.78 Got up late this morning, could not sell out earlier. Good luck every one.

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  18. Bought XIV 29.00 One batch. 2nd batch 28.98

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  19. Take a look at the 50dma for SPX. Sharply rising and the golden cross is imminent this month. Very positive short term.

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  20. SC, what is your exit target for today's XIV entry?

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    Replies
    1. I think XIV sees $31 soon. It could cool somewhat from that level, but I plan to simply hold for a higher target of $35.

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  21. VIX...the chart traders/investors should be watching...😎
    (https://twitter.com/allerotrot/status/673924231688822784?s=17)

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  22. Replies
    1. i dont think so bro 2109 coming soon

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    2. NYAD (-1876), TICK (-417), & BPCOMPQ (-0.83) are all trending down...for the first time it looks as if Be Careful is seeing things like me...

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    3. NSSI (-43.21) & NASI (-23.70) are also trending down...

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  23. UVXY

    https://twitter.com/allerotrot/status/673935525468839937?s=17

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  24. Waiting to buy my 3rd batch. I always buy in 3 batches for safety. If we go down to last weeks lows, I will buy my 3rd batch. I am concerned for approx Dec 17 give or take a day for some kind of temporary low before blasting off to slay the perma bears.

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  25. $SPX now 23 days without back-to-back up days. One of longest streaks in history. $SPY

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  26. Dates I am watching this month for SPX Cycle:

    Tomorrow high Dec 8th, low Dec 14th, and high Dec 30th.

    Often these dates are accurate to the day. Other times off by a few days, but they've been pretty decent.

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    Replies
    1. My take is that up until Dec 14 can see some chop, but it may only be minor. After the 14th, I think the market will perform much stronger....

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    2. Thanks SC, I was trying to be to fancy this morning. Did not get my third batch. I will use that for swing trading. Good luck every one.

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    3. Still, nicely done, and all the best!

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  27. Do you have any updates on silver?

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    Replies
    1. Silver is starting to slowly warm up...

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  28. nothing matters but oil now. oil is the proxy for everything. whatever oil does, the market will follow. this is a stock market of new paradigms....and technicals are not necessarily relevant, nor are historical norms/patterns/cycles. we are going down into dec 16 meeting...another week at least.

    Be CarefulDecember 7, 2015 at 10:13 AM
    2049 next.

    Be CarefulDecember 7, 2015 at 7:25 AM
    Oil is repricing, market just can't handle it. Down down....and more down coming. Something is very wrong, especially for December. Nervous. Although energy only 7% of S&P index, oil is saying global growth is extremely bad...zero demand. Dangerous market.

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    Replies
    1. i believe you will see a rip your face off rally

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  29. xiv 27.68 next. then 26s...pause.

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    Replies
    1. if it goes that low i will buy more and i wouldnt be shorting oil nest year moves higher

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  30. This worries me. The DAX having decisively broken the wedge pattern after filling the gap from August, on the last trading day in November, is currently down 160 odd points.
    It has attempted a back test of the 200 day and the wedge break yesterday and failed before even getting there. The DAX and Europe look very very ominous technically with even worse looking bearish patterns longer term.

    If Europe and Asia go......the US will follow. Of that you can be certain. The ASX and FTSE look the weakest of all global indices at present due to the commodity factor.
    Deflation appears to be really taking hold amd suggest that things could get very ugly very rapidly.

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    Replies
    1. Good morning Beetlejuice. I would have to respectively disagree with you on that, US follows Europe and Asia. It is the other way around for the past year. All the best to you

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    2. Michael, no problem. You can disagree with me all you like but the fact is that the DAX and more notably, the ASX AllOrd has been leading for a substantial time.
      Don't believe me?.......check the charts.

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  31. Replies
    1. I would agree with you Louis. I sense some kind of shallow V shape bottom mid month, than blast off to the up side to put the PERMA BEARS out of their misery. I fully agree with SC, it will be bouncy here for a while. Great time to swing trade in and out if you are nimble.

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    2. money flow extremly positive on spx will hold this week
      dont forget 1.1 trillion options expiring on dec 18th
      670 billion being puts

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  32. Hopefully a higher low for SPX, but we will see.

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    Replies
    1. i think 2104 is the minimum according to my charts

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  33. see how oil does at 35.35, when it gets there.

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  34. SPX seems to be coming down last 2 days... I hope a reversal is coming aswell ... :-)

    SC , any thoughts, thank you very much

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  35. Sideways, consolidation currently.

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    Replies
    1. SC, Looks like sideways to lower now. Given the action last few days, do you think things have changed as per your previous analysis? thanks

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  36. Once XIV clears $30.50, melt up.

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  37. great stuff ,
    Good for Christmas :-)

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  38. what a terrible vehicle this uvxy is.

    Vix is up over 11% and uvxy up 7%.

    Is there a better etf than this pos?

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  39. SC, do you still see XIV 31 this week? What's your SPX target?

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    Replies
    1. just back, this is crazy swing, guess I have to wait until next week now. SC, how low do you think this market can go?

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  40. Big spike in equity put/call ratio yesterday. Previous six times were close to lows for $SPY.

    If you remember from a previous post, how I talked about how we have not had back to back green days in the markets for 23 days straight. So based on that cycle, I will be selling out 2/3 of my XIV some time today and using it to swing trade and get back into XIV at lower prices. Good luck every one

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  41. Waiting for the Europeans markets to close before we attempt the highs for today again. Depending on volume ect will exit part of my XIV.

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  42. nothing matters but Oil price and 37.50 support or resistance. depending on the day.

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  43. there goes oil 37.50, taking the market down fast. bad.

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  44. Looks like Oil is spoiling the party today. NASDAQ is also not playing nice.

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  45. Golden cross on SPY, all indices should see it soon

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  46. Replies
    1. good call a couple days ago..mm's hitting longs hard before rate move, after rate move, expect a move up to throw Shorts off....sell the rumor buy the news....

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    2. looking for 2020 and then rip your face off rally

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  47. VIX chart is key...
    http://tinyurl.com/j84lzzd

    pay attention to the VIX and ignore the Santa rally BS...
    http://tinyurl.com/zqx2th9

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  48. uvxy again under performing Vix..


    whats the purpose of this product if it doesn't track 200% of the move of vix?

    Yesterday and today both underperformed spot vix.

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    Replies
    1. must be kidding..."How Does UVXY Work?"

      http://sixfigureinvesting.com/2015/03/how-does-uvxy-work/

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  49. http://tinyurl.com/p7w8uwv

    if SPX holds decisively below the 300sma it could signal real trouble for the stock market...

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  50. No offence but some of talking of shooting higher and golden crosses is ignoring the global situation.
    All global indices have broken down from long term patterns including the US. Yes we may get a bounce soon but this is the beginning of a bear market.

    Markets down will = gold higher.

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  51. Currently we are in a down cycle until Dec 14th, and tracking the cycle quite well. Not much time left for the bears...

    SCDecember 7, 2015 at 12:40 PM

    "Dates I am watching this month for SPX Cycle:

    Tomorrow high Dec 8th, low Dec 14th, and high Dec 30th."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. you may want to consider sticking December 21 in there...

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  52. XIV is testing the orange support today. As stated in the chart analysis, XIV could test the lower pink support. So not much time or room for downside.

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    Replies
    1. SC, since XIV busted through all support, similar to August, does your high target of $35 change? thx

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  53. On April 12, 2015, the orange lines were drawn on this NYA monthly chart...the chart continues to speak for itself!

    (https://twitter.com/allerotrot/status/674702921628536833?s=17)

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  54. SC, where do you see SPX with XIV at pink support?

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  55. SPX is holding well and the negative cycle is ending on Monday, December 14th.

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    Replies
    1. over reliance on the historical patterns published by Stock Traders Almanac could be dangerous to your wealth!

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    2. just curious why your not posting what i am saying

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  56. I was out all day. Tried using my IPAD to remind every one of that non 2 day up sequence. I posted the other day. IPAD does not work on this blog for some reason. I have been trading in and out to bring my average cost down with XIV. Theoretically with this sequence, we may retest the lows with XIV Friday due today being a one day up. We need to get thru this rough part of the month before we take off in the markets. Good luck every one.

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  57. SC, you see good idea to add XIV here to average down? Do you still see 34 target or lower target now? Thanks!

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  58. i here the big bazzokas are gonna start buying market

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  59. Be CarefulDecember 9, 2015 at 9:46 AM
    S&P 2003 next

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  60. SC this one appears to have gotten away from you and you have drastically underestimated the potential downside.

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  61. irregular bottom very bullish short term in spx

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  62. Hi SC,
    SPX getting hammered hard....
    any thoughts or ideas,, you think negative cycle still ending on Monday Dec. 14th, thanks again

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  63. This blog goes quiet when it's terribly wrong.

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  64. A sizeable bounce imminent but my advice would be to use it to get out. European indices look abyssmal.

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  65. XIV is testing the pink support today, and timing is interesting with the Dec 14th low on Monday.

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    Replies
    1. XIV low $30's soon, and I do have a higher $38 XIV target as well.

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  66. SPX still on track for 2,130. As well we'll see 2,200 SPX within 6 months.

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    Replies
    1. It would be hard for SPX to make it to 2130 by Dec end, don't you think? Not to mention we need to see how things shape up next week what with, Opex, FED, Oil weakness, credit panic etc.

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    2. rip your face off rally should be coming

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    3. we are in a bear market...it will be decades before the SPX hits 2200...

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    4. Yes Sunshine I agree. I don't think there is enough time to see the big rally by month end.

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  67. Marty Armstrong has a directional change for next week. Rise up in the markets next week, Min 2055 last night I mentioned watch out for a down day due to that sequence of up days.I waited towards the EOD to exit XIV yesterday and bought today for a 2/3 position in EIV.Will purchase the last 1/3 Monday.

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  68. Say goodbye to any rate rise. Crude collapsing, corporate default risk rising exponentially and European and EM's in very precarious price levels puts paid to that. No way the Fed werer ever going to rain on Santas parade anyway
    That may be your catalyst SC.

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  69. NYAD weekly...it won't be different this time!

    https://mobile.twitter.com/allerotrot/status/675740040513892352

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  70. Hi Be Careful, great calls on what the markets are doing. What do you see happening in SPX? Do you see SPX going to 1900s next wk? Or do you think we can get to the highs of this year and break higher perhaps maybe in January? Thanks

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