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Wednesday, September 16, 2015

UVXY - Low Forming - Upside Target $120

VIX futures have collapsed during the last two sessions, and interestingly the S&P barely rose.  Complacency just skyrocketed.  That is extremely bearish going forward. 

UVXY is likely nearing an important low.  Lower fork support is just below.  Next upside target is $120.

60min Chart
















Daily Chart















32 comments:

  1. Time to build a short position. There's just excessive complacency!!!

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  2. VIX support around 19 or 20 can result in another spike for VIX. Next high in the VIX Cycle is around 40.

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  3. The low may take 3 or 4 days next to form as the Shanghai completes a high anticipated around 3400.

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  4. Took profit on XIV at $29.30.

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  5. VIX should be a little lower, around 19 or 20.

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  6. Around 2,000 looks like strong resistance for SPX. It's not that the S&P looks that bearish, it's more an issue of volatility. VIX futures are adjusting to a higher volatility environment.

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  7. VIX

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  8. SC. I would like to see spx 1900 by early next week. The thought that the market could rise to spx 2015 is also possible. The FOMC meeting will tell us that, patiently waiting the announcement.Thanks for the imput.

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  9. XIV has some midfork support around $26. Bounce off that and then lower to around $24. Should see that this month.

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  10. To be clear, you see SPX 1920 next, then 2000 again, then 1860? Does this based on just 1987 Crash, or with the time cycles you tracking also?

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    Replies
    1. Cycles are turning negative. We'll take things one step at a time. Right now forming a high and low later this month.

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  11. SC, you mentioned that maybe another scare with China, do you see Aug low 2850 holds? If not, where do you see it may hit bottom?

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    1. I think there will likely be a lower low coming below 2850, but not much lower. It'll scare people though. Slight lower low coming and then rise for 7 months or so.

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  12. SC. then the Spx 1900 level is possible by the end of the month. Thanks for the clarity.

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  13. SC, I understand you think there will be a rate hike today. However, does your analysis change in any way if there is no rate hike in September?
    Thanks
    Z.

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    Replies
    1. No, I mean in my view the market is what drives the rates anyways. The reason there is pressure to rise rates is simply that the market has risen for a few years.

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  14. So no rake hike, lets see what happens after the news conference. Market is uncertain at the moment.

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  15. Sc are u still looking for a down next week or r u waiting for a top sometime soon

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    Replies
    1. I'm waiting for a high to form to short.

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  16. This probably won't be ready to short until next week.

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  17. Sc I follow the SPX that looks like a top. Next week should be down. Is that still the view.????????

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    Replies
    1. We could have reached the high there, but I will wait for things to settle out.

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    2. I suspect the market could drop somewhat tomorrow but then bounce to form a lower high. That would be an excellent short setup.

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  18. UVXY hit the green line and large bounce.

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  19. This is most likely in my opinion. XIV $26 soon, bounce to $30.50, and down to $24.

    SCSeptember 17, 2015 at 9:14 AM

    "XIV has some midfork support around $26. Bounce off that and then lower to around $24. Should see that this month."

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  20. we still at the blue arrow on the comparison chart?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, SPX hit it today and reversed down.

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  21. SC now is the target of SPX 1900 still viable for next week. It got alot better at the close for that to happen

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    Replies
    1. Check out the XIV chart I just posted. It'll explain my view better for September.

      Yes, 1900 SPX is viable for September. Next levels I anticipate are 1950 or so next then, 2,000, and around 1900 SPX this month.

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