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Tuesday, December 22, 2015

XIV - Short Term Outlook

XIV cooled off from the double orange and blue resistance, and currently is building support.  XIV is likely to rise into month-end.

Notice the cluster of lines up above at the month-end green target area.  

60min Chart

60 comments:

  1. January is set to be an exciting month!

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  2. SC, do you have a bearish bias for January? If yes, where do you see S&P and XIV in Jan? Thanks.

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    1. January looks wild! Let me explain with the charts coming...

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  3. Mercury Retrograde 2016
    http://www.findyourfate.com/astrology/year2016/2016-mercury-retrograde.html

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  4. We have the golden cross on SPX! Good for 400 points rally to the upside!!

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    1. let's be clear...are you forecasting that SPX is headed to the area of 2440? if so, what time frame?

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    2. Yes, a low is due early January, and then a powerful 6-month rally begins.

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    3. do yourself a BIG favor...try a trial subscription to Lowry Research...once you have the facts, rather than conjecture, you may change your forecast...
      https://www.lowryresearch.com

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  5. I do not like the action of XIV.Sold out at 27.07 Bought back UVXY 26.28 for a day or two. Market Makers are playing with this market. Easy to do in a thin trading market

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    1. Please note, My original accumulation of XIV approx. 29.00 two third position Than swing trading in and out to bring down my average cost to 27.44 Sold out this morning with a loss. Good luck every one.

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  6. $ES_F $YM_F $IWM all are testing strong Res here at the weekly or monthly If we go thru 2058 with conviction I will sell my UVXY

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  7. XIV could cool off to test the pink support in the $25's, but I think higher at month end.

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    1. SPX could dip to 2030, then rise to 2080 to close out the year.

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    2. SC, now we are in the same boat.

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  8. SC, how big of a drop are you expecting after the Dec 30 high?

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    1. I do expect a significant plunge first week of January. January looks very interesting. Charts coming...

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  9. we should see weakness mon tuesday and then up to end off year
    best guess could be 2093

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  10. Sold half position at 27 .11 Will keep half UVXY early next week. Have a great Christmas every one.

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  11. VIX DAILY

    http://mymarketgeometry.com/

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  12. Sold out of uvxy 28.28 Bought VIV 25.88 Good luck every one.

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  13. Noteworthy is the fact that the large cap index Standard & Poor’s 500 has never closed lower in a year ending with “5”, nor has it ever closed lower in the year preceding a U.S. Presidential election, and lastly, has not closed lower in the seventh year of a Presidency since 1939. If the S&P cannot hold this week the index is in danger of deviating some strong cyclical patterns that it has built and leaned on over the last several decades.

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  14. Here's the $25's to test support. Should see a pop into month end...

    SCDecember 23, 2015 at 12:47 PM

    "XIV could cool off to test the pink support in the $25's, but I think higher at month end."

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  15. Sold half position xiv 26.67 from 25.88

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  16. Sold the remaining position, to many meetings today to leave the position on. Sold at 26.70 from 25.88

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  17. SC, are you looking to switch to UVXY on Dec 30? Still looking Dec 30 as short term top?

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    1. Yes, Dec 30th is the next Cycle high, and I do plan to switch into UVXY. Next Cycle low is January 13th.

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  18. UVXY was a short term trade to pick up some nickels and dimes before entering XIV for into the end of the month.

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  19. bought uvxy 25.55 will buy more if it drops

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  20. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. Good call, Louis. I have been out all day. My I pad does not allow me to post on this web site for some reason. My half position in Uvxy was sold out this morning and went long UPRO instead of XIV. Bigger bang for my dollars. As of now XIV is up only 1.34% vs Upro at 3.26% Looking for 2003 min with a possibility going to 2124 sp by Thursday. I will be selling out my long core holdings by Thursday some time. My play account, Uvxy XIV, Upro is for fun.I am some what concerned with the over all markets going into Feb 25th time frame. We will finally see some exciting drops in the markets here shortly. Good luck every one.

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  21. please disregard the uvxy sell i meant selling all xiv

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  22. SC, what's the entry price you looking for UVXY and exit target?

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    1. Tomorrow is the date for the Cycle high so UVXY starting to look interesting.

      Initial target first week of January around $30, then January 13th higher target around $36.

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  23. I imagine you can't just take 2014 Dec-January fractal and paste it into this year. It appears you are doing just that. Low Jan 6 and 14. That is too...easy.

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    1. its not just that brother its more than that it looks like a large drop coming into january thrust is very over bought and i think by tomorrow i would double up the shorts

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  24. Replies
    1. Silver is building a strong base with consolidation in the $13's, and getting ready to pop to $17.

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  25. What's your SPX target for the Jan 13th low?

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    Replies
    1. I think there will be another test of 2,000.

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  26. sold uvxy up 1 dollar looking to buy back cheaper

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  27. Triple zigzag decline in its late stages. One more low before resumption higher.

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  28. Sold out of (long UPRO) down %9 vs XIV down close to 2%
    Bought XIV 26.71 Short term trade before entering UVXY. Good luck every one

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  29. January 8th will be the bottom i believe a big decline coming looking to go long uvxy in the 25 ish area again

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  30. I have reason to believe this last down leg will likely be (double bottom)

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  31. if we dont rally then there will probably be no crash
    if we do rally up into January it will be negative for markets

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    1. I think we'll see another pop for the market here before it drops into January.

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    2. 2100's could still be possible.... January looks bearish though.

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  32. SPY 50% retracement is at 205.98, Gap fill at 205.93.

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  33. What is the your exit target for XIV?

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    Replies
    1. Target $29 to $30 still looks attainable.

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  34. Still MAINTAINING XIV for a few days, A little under water by .89 cents. Good luck to all.

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    Replies
    1. that didn't work....VIX reverse instruments were in contango on Thursday...

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  35. Still looking for new highs in early 2016. I'm looking for this sell-off to be the last one in the sideways pattern that began in early Nov.

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  36. http://www.optionmonster.com/drj_blog/article.php?page=drj_blog%2Ftraders_still_holding_jan_vix_calls_on_sonar_report__109832.html&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+optionmonsterDRJsBlog+%28optionMONSTER%3A+DRJ%27s+Blog%29

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