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Friday, April 10, 2015

$SPX - Cycle Bearish - Dip to Purple Arrow Next

The expanding formation (red lines) is well defined now, and has formed as predicted by the Cycle. 

The pink arrow is in place.  A dip down to the purple arrow low to test around the red support is expected next according to the Cycle.

2hour Chart
















SPX Cycle:



















80 comments:

  1. UVXY may be choppy and just slide down for another couple weeks though it'll bounce soon. May looks bearish for the market, but not so much for April. Next high for VIX is in May or probably more likely in June.

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    Replies
    1. Did you exit XIV too soon? 40 target achieved but with anemic UVXY s 44-48 possible (another 10-20%)?

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    2. Possibly exited a little early. A few more dollars could be possible for XIV, but UVXY is much more attractive at these levels. I'm interested in fine tuning an entry into UVXY at this point given the Cycle.

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  2. May is the earliest we could see the purple arrow low. June probably more likely.

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  3. It'll be a strong spike for VIX to 19 to 20 slowly rising in May and then spiking probably into June.

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  4. Hi, SC! Could you also do an update on oil? Also when do you think we will hit point A and is the fall from that point sudden like the crash of 87? Do you see if we will get a 20% plus correction this year? Thank you!!

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    1. I'll consider doing an update on oil. I'm not expecting anything major to happen for oil this year. Last year was exciting for oil and this year will be relatively calm and moderately bullish for oil in my view.

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    2. Point A is due late this year or early next year. Therefore I will say no 20% correction this year (May and June look bearish). The crash from Point A will be sudden for sure, similar to 87 though not as fast and there are 2 legs down from point A to point P whereas in 87 it was only one leg down.

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  5. NDX delayed at this swing higher. Not expect all time highs 4 this leg up. Fractal suggest another push to 2055(+-5) you know the target. NDX little more higher 88% should top 4 DAX 12585(+-10) the big one. Expect top until middle week.

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  6. Will VIX exceed 10 low from last year or maintain higher low 12's?

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    Replies
    1. Yes VIX will likely achieve my 10 target or probably slightly below at Point A.

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  7. The drop to the purple arrow will scare people especially if it dips a little below the red line... Of course that is when I'll look to cover shorts and go long again!

    For now we wait for this rally to finish. I expect the S&P to dip this week, but may rise a little more later in the month. There is not much time left.

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  8. At what level would you suggest a uvxy entry? Got XIV funds waiting to be rotated...

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    Replies
    1. UVXY is likely to pop this week, then fade a little for an optimal entry later this month imo. Minimal, might see 10-15%. It's already attractive at this level.

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  9. I think you should have stuck with your 2150 for your second pink arrow...as it looks like they are taking there now....

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  10. VIX

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  11. SC, do you have a target for UVXY entry? Seems like both XIV and UVXY are really stretched on opposite sides. Thx. Z.

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    Replies
    1. Expecting to take a position next week. Time is running out, yes it is stretched.

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  12. any updates on where we are with silver?

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  13. Silver remains in a bear market, and it'll take more than a year to reach the bottom. I'd wait here to see if it can bounce to short it again.

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  14. Are you buy UVXY today or tomorrow, or has it turned into next week?

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  15. When is good time for XIV exit?

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  16. Is tomorrow good for XIV exit, UVXY entry or both?

    Is this just 10-15% retrace for XIV? Not that interested in hopping in-out of it for $4 swing.

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    Replies
    1. Quite a large drop ahead for XIV!

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  17. Do you have a price area that you are looking for today?

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    Replies
    1. Anywhere around this price looks attractive for UVXY. Very nice spot for UVXY!

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  18. Looks ike we skipping purple arrow and heading straight for point A... XIV $50 next?!

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  19. It seems obvious that the markets are irrational at this point. That was a terrible PMI number this morning and the markets didn't even react to it. Picking a turn point becomes very difficult.

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  20. This is a bearish spot in the Cycle, May looks quite negative. XIV target is around $31's and UVXY around $17's for this move.

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    Replies
    1. Then after $31 XIV zoom to $50 thru summer for point A high?

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    2. Yes down first, then probably closer to $60.

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    3. May looks quite bearish for the S&P. The summer looks bullish, and into the fall months also.

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  21. What level is point A spx 2400?

    Point P 1200?


    Looks like it could take a coupe years at least for P...

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    Replies
    1. A good estimate for Point A is 2,350. From Point A to Point P can take about a year. I know it looks like a long time on the Cycle, but just as it's rising slower than it appears, I expect it to decline much faster than it appears.

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  22. S&P starting to weaken, wobble a little. UVXY looks excellent for May.

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  23. Exited XIV this am at 41.99 (stop)

    Hopefully 31 coming soon!

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  24. VIX


    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  25. That's it?! $3 drop n pop for XIV... How disappointing yet typical.

    Rentry 41.68 for $44 exit

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    Replies
    1. Just the first wobble. SPX has failed to gain anything since Feb. So it's looking very weak.

      I've been waiting patiently and fine tuning an optimal bearish entry. I definitely plan to take that position in the next few days.

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  26. Definitely the market is declining now. May looks quite bearish.

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  27. Probably not much will happen tomorrow, and Thursday looks like another good time to short. This is the best spot this year to short in the Cycle.

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  28. Hello SC - Could you please clarify your point of view on the SP500? First, it seems that you got it wrong on the pink arrow. If I understand you correctly, the pink arrow was reached by the end of April (high in SP500: 2,125). Are the stock market now due to a decline toward the purple arrow (around 2,000) ?

    Thank you for your transaprence.

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  29. Well ok the S&P did reach 5 points higher in April compared to February which is insignificant. Properly is should be said that the pink arrow high formed during the February to April period. The high formed during that 2 month period.

    Yes, since that high is complete, the S&P is due to decline to the purple arrow. In my view this should take a month or so.

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  30. Thank you SC. I agree that 5 points higher is insignificant in absolute terms but some traders (including myself) trade on the futures markets, and thereby the stop loss level does matter. Another question: when do you expect to take a position? what would you like to see to have sufficient conviction to take a position? Which instruments are you going to use to implement your strategy? Best

    All the best

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    Replies
    1. I did have a bullish position until April 10th, and since then have just been waiting to short. This is a nice setup for the bears, but only for about a month. The S&P is likely to gradually decline for a few weeks and then suddenly plunge down to finish the decline.

      I took the position today. The market has been declining for a few weeks with the VIX rising and looking solid. VIX should rise gradually weeks and then spike up strongly so I bought UVXY.

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  31. SC, great calls recently! Do you see the fireworks to the down side starting tomorrow or will it just be a slow grind down?

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    Replies
    1. Thank you!

      SPX should grind down first for weeks, then plunge down.

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  32. SC, do you plan to take a short position today?

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    Replies
    1. I took the position today, finally.

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  33. SC
    When do you see the Market hiiting the A point from the purple area??
    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. The purple low should be reached by June with Point A taking 5-6 months from the purple low. So that puts the timing around the end of this year.

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  34. Xiv & uvxy entry /targets?

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  35. Replies
    1. Planning to hold the position until June 15/16.

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  36. Target for UVXY is $16 which is $80 postsplit. XIV $30 to $32.

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  37. SC, it seems that S&P grinding down for weeks would probably not benefit a product like UXVY as much which would be affected by decay probably more. Do you see such a scenario till a real rise in volatility perhaps end of May or early June?

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    Replies
    1. When we look at VIX itself it has just chopped sideways since Feb. That's why I waited until just recently to take the position in UVXY. By doing that most of the decay was avoided.

      The market won't last much longer, and is ripe to turn down imo.

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    2. Whats your spx target on his move? 2040? 2000?

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    3. In theory could see 1975 re-tested but that's pushing it.

      SPX 2010 is a target.

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    4. Markets are trying to breakout of the range today, interesting struggle, some technicians think a breakout is imminent, but time will tell!

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    5. This should be the largest decline of this year for S&P according to the Cycle.

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  38. How much more of this sideways chop before the VIX pop?

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  39. VIX

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  40. SC,

    How confident is your call for XIV 30 by June 16?

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  41. With confidence the Cycle shows a decline to the purple arrow.

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  42. Got free update from Erick Hadik. He is expecting a top bet 18-20 may and 20% correction by sept . don't know.

    summary:
    Since Sept./Oct. 2014, we have tried to keep you abreast of Eric Hadik's stock market analysis for a slowly-developing top & reversal lower. That was projected to be a steady progression of divergent peaks with mid-April 2015 producing the first sign of trouble that would corroborate expectations for May--Sept. 2015. And that was expected to be followed by a defining (ensuing) high in late-April/early-May.



    The Indices have fulfilled that analysis - with key markets reversing their weekly trends down in April - setting the stage for a more devastating drop during the May--September period (after the normal, textbook reactive rebound).



    So far, so good!



    Now comes the long-awaited period... when a ~20% drop has been projected. At the same time, Gold & Silver are fulfilling upside expectations... but should still see some additional upside. And grain markets are nearing MAJOR bottoms.



    May 18--22nd ushers in 'That Period'... and was detailed in the May 2015 INSIIDE Track: Stock-flation II Report! Multiple cycles - ranging from daily & weekly cycles to 2-year, 7-year, 14-year, 17-year & 28-year cycles - pinpoint two specific periods when Stock Indices are most likely to plummet. Before that could happen, however, daily & weekly cycles and trend patterns projected a rebound from early-May into May 13--18th. That rebound is nearing fruition.



    In order to give you a taste of what is expected, attached is an excerpt of the May 2015 INSIIDE Track: Stock-flation II in pdf format. The entire Report is available as a FREE bonus with any new Weekly Re-Lay subscription.

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  43. "With confidence the Cycle shows a decline to the purple arrow."

    Incorrect :(

    Up we go.

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  44. Xiv 44 target from April 28 hit today.

    50$ next

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  45. http://tripstrading.com/2015/05/18/does-2130-mark-the-sp500-high/

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  46. Looks like we skipped purple arrow ...unless 2040 was the purple...next stop Point A 2350!

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  47. We'll see the decline to the purple arrow. VIX higher low than April which is a good confirmation of the Cycle. S&P looks tired.

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  48. on tdameritrade 5 min chart, there is a fake print for uvxy, today for 211, don't know if anybody else can see it

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  49. Special update coming soon...

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  50. SC, you've made some great calls of late but the purple arrow just didnt pan out. XIV will see 60 before 30.

    Time to prepare position for Point A high.

    Looking forward to the next update.

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    Replies
    1. I'll explain everything with the update, quite an interesting time in the market...

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  51. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CFm565uXIAEDjZn.png it is possible on vix. chart by 3xtraders

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