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Sunday, April 29, 2012

$VIX - Update

The VIX chart originally shown on March 29th worked well for April.  Currently, there is high potential for a large spike up in the VIX.  Complacency is high.    

Daily Chart

86 comments:

  1. I've been busy but have a number of charts coming. This will be an important week for the markets.

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  2. Hi SC,

    Do you have gold & silver charts?
    Plase share your ideas about PMs.

    Thank you.
    RB

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    Replies
    1. Yes, I was planning to have those charts last week, but they will be ready soon.

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  3. SC,

    Your target of VIX shown here is on one spike? I would say it will hit around 20 then turn back to test bottom again and then go to 29...30.

    Or this will go one flight...

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  4. The cash VIX is up 6% but the futures are not nearly up so much. Often the futures lag.

    I showed a chart of the VIX last week with a spot around 24. It would likely rest there then spike again.

    Let's not get ahead of ourselves though. I'll be watching for confirmations early this week.

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    1. What exactly will provide you confirmation?

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    2. SS76,

      You out or still holding HVU?

      Thanks

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  5. There are patterns that I am monitoring which will provide confirmation as they progress.

    The simple answer though is to watch for more evidence of the market rolling over. Lower highs etc. It is a start today.

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  6. VIX future are not moving...any reason?

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  7. Canadian GDP dropped! early call for an interest rate hike now looks like premature...

    Is Canada heading for recession?

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  8. SILVER

    http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/4219/silcer.jpg

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    1. Do you mind explaining your silver chart a little to newbie? Do you see it drop further before bouncing?

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  9. Perhaps HVU is simply a hold this week. Firmed up on Friday and futures do tend to be delayed somewhat, so another negative day tomorrow could be the catalyst VIX futures need...

    SC, where do you see Pivot lows/highs this week?

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  10. I suspect tomorrow SPX may firm up and put in a lower high. Then it can slide again.

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    1. when does the waterfall occur based on your analysis? Around what dates

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    2. May 9-10 looks negative in my cycle analysis.

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    3. I think ZIGZAG had a market top around May 10th....if I'm not mistaken.

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  11. Sold HVU, now back into HND.....will rebuy HVU tomorrow, hopefully with more monday, NG is staging a rally for no reason, so I suspect it fails.

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  12. I was surprised how well UVXY held up today. Sold earlier in the day when it was looking like it would crash back down, but never happened.

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  13. Not that ES snp future matters that much when it change over night.

    but the current ES looking like to bounced off 1390 during market hour and never looked back...so SS76 maybe right on sold HVU today and buy HVU back tomorrow cheaper...so far.


    ZIGZAG is still on track to be right most of the time so far in this race, all these bad news and we still rally, imagine if we have good news (AAPL earning anyone?)

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    Replies
    1. news doesn't matter. at least not significantly.
      it's all priced in. the majority of the time, the market adjusts before these events

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  14. If Hollande wins the election May 6th stocks may be bumpy for a few days.

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  15. Anyone have a link to ZigZag's blog/charts?

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  16. ok look...abc correction a1394,b1400,c1388. if by mid day tues. would be 38% time as well as price from 1406-1358=48x38.2%=18...a12,b-6,c12=18...viola...now what??

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  17. Anyone here? very quite!

    I hope you all are not in HVU...anyone trying there luck again at this level? 3.45 area?

    Thanks

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  18. So you saying the market will drop to 1388 by mid day??? confused.

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  19. SC, you mentioned today the market firming up which it is certainly doing......how does the rest of the day play out and what do you see the next 3 days?

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  20. VIX is clearly going in high 16's....look at the chart for 5 hr. and daily..

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  21. last friday , i mentioned pull back will be in early this week
    Vix futures will down to 16 for HVU will be 3.00 or below

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  22. S & P can go upto 1440 now...

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  23. So when do you see that happening Destiny? I can wait, lol. I've been burned too many times with HVU jumping in!

    I'm thinking that Thursday with the April jobs report will be negative...

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  24. Hvu is not a buy yet
    be patience will get cheaper price

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  25. Yep..too much hot soup on the stove. Bear trap city.

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  26. SC, how do you think this mkt?

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  27. My cycle analysis is weak until after May 10th. The spots that are quite negative are around May 1st, May 4th. May 9-10th is the date I am favouring for a bottom 1326 SPX.

    It does not look to me like there is anything significant for SPX upside. My cycle analysis had some positive spots over the last week but they have already passed. Therefore, I am confident we are heading lower. I think it slides slowly to start and the pace picks up dramatically into a vertical waterfall.

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  28. When I lined up my red fork resistance on the secondary peak as shown on the chart above there should be major resisance at 1404 SPX. That should be it for this bounce.

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    SS76Apr 27, 2012 06:39 AM
    and if it breaks 1404?

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    SCApr 27, 2012 06:42 AM
    I don't believe that is possible.


    SCApr 27, 2012 06:43 AM
    Hit 1404 SPX and sold off. Top of this bounce is in place in my opinion.

    Reply

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  29. SC? Not only has the S&P bounced back, but now above 1404 as Richard pointed out. What are your thoughts? No lower high, higher high now.

    Although today was always going to be positive with Europe closed....question is, what does it all mean going forward short term?

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  30. SPX rallying today and my cycle analysis was positive for today as pointed out yesterday. If this continues, then yes a last gasp to 1455 becomes likely into mid-May.

    Importantly my downside targets for both VIX and SPX will not change. However, the timing would be pushed for the next low into June.

    This was my original scenario anyways. So as I've said previously this week is important for confirmation.

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  31. Bottom line as pointed out last week the market has to stall and start to slide early this week or else I have to push my timing for the next low at 1326 SPX into June.

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  32. so you getting out of uvxy and re-entering at better price?

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    1. If SPX does make this final pop, then I would expect VIX to come down and bottom around 15. So UVXY would come down as well, but the downside doesn't look like all that much either. My upside target would still be $28 but it would be in June rather than May.

      The scales are starting to top and it should be obvious soon if SPX is setting to make it's final pop, and I will reposition in that case for a better entry.

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    2. Pardon me "scales are starting to tip" towards SPX making a final pop.

      If we are rally mode, then there should still be resistance for SPX at 1420, and a dip to follow.

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    3. SC,

      Why you go straight to extreme level? when you say VIX to 15, did you check the charts? daily? weekly? monthly? when you make these statements, people see this as next big opportunity and to be honest there is only 10% chance of your extreme prediction to come true and then they get into wrong trade and start shouting...

      I can see VIX reaching to middle 16 but 15 at this point I don't see it...

      Not trying to be critical but trying to maintain the integrity of your blog, you don't want anyone comes here and throw random without solid evidence.

      Thanks

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    4. To clarify I'm talking about the regular cash VIX which is at 16.24 as I type. You must be talking about levels on the VIX futures?

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    5. Yes, but what is the relevance here on SPOT VIX where we play ETFs for VIX future?

      It just makes confusing for everyone..

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    6. I chart UVXY directly which I prefer to charting the VIX futures.

      I chart the cash VIX since I also cover SPX.

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  33. So have you covered? Has your confirmation been denied since we now have a higher high? You are a bit vague on what your confirmation criteria is which is why I asked that the other day.

    If the next stop is 1455 for the S&P, do you realize that UVXY will have lost 50 - 75% of its value? You mentioned that you are still holding it and went in heavya, have you sold it and perhaps I missed your post?

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    1. SPX looks like it is gunning for 1420 which would confirm that the market is heading for a last push higher to 1455.

      I will likely reposition in UVXY, but the downside does not look like all that much. $11 or so perhaps. VIX itself could come down to 15.

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    2. 10% is significant downside SC....anyways, your call, but 1420 sounds like a good bet for a reversal, I figured the top was around 1425

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  34. Anyone realize bear forecasts are always wrong...and anyone realize why?

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  35. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  36. Extract from some technical report.....

    The actual monthly 3 Candle of the S&P 500 is showing that the market is targeting the upper line of the 3rd double arc after the correction on daily basis that seems to have come to its end. Since March closed within the lines of this double arc and April is going to do so as well reaching the next higher target is still to come. The minimum target of the spring rally is at 1435. An 1461 extension until the end of May is possible but not very likely. Technically that target cannot be reached unless next week some clearly higher year-highs will be made.

    The preferred target of this rally is at 1448. It was activated by the middle of March in the actual weekly 5 candle. With the break of the first double arc the 2nd double arc was determined as to be the target:

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  37. Also note for DOW target is 13550 before any major reversal....

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  38. Plunge!
    Waterfall decline!
    Highs are in!
    Crash!

    I continue to fade these call and make money.

    Same as it ever was. Don't understand the constant stance and people who follow it.

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    1. Fair enough, but my analysis is very much similar to how it was in winter of 2011 - bearish. In August-Sept 2011 my work had a bullish slant.

      I've shown many bullish charts as well this year, but the reason my work is skewed to the downside is that I see the large cycles are very bearish.

      The big money is going to be made on the downside this year. I'm just simply waiting for the best setup.

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    2. Understood and I respect your efforts..............it just seems way too inaccurate to make money from as a trader. As an investor maybe it has benefits.

      It seems to zig when you say zag.

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    3. Sometimes it does, but big moves take patience and that is when the serious money is made.

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  39. Hi SC

    Are you still in your UVXY position your bought few days ago heavy?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Most likely I will soon reposition it for a slightly better entry.

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  40. Hello All.
    IMHO SC's short term plunge scenario can still be valid.

    If SP500 is going to reject 1412 VERY SOON and CLEAR then we should see 1320 very fast and after that, testing opportunity at 1280 will be like a magnet.

    If not, more likely November'2010 correction has just repeated itself and God help the Bears.

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  41. I don't think a one day rally on one data point should qualify as something that will take the S&P to new heights. There are many short term challenges for the markets that can test this rally and can easily make a dent in it. Jobs report on Friday, Europe election results this weekend to name a few. Let's give it few more days to see if this rally holds.

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    1. I also agree. If the market moves higher it is going to be a grind and back and fill situation that takes some time.

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  42. Late selloff is not good sign for bears...would be better if DOW stayed at pick...

    Tomorrow could be another push to break high..

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  43. today SPX resisstance @ 1415 support @ 1407 already hit earlier now go back down to 1407 before heading higher again

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  44. Did anyone notice the Russel actually closed slightly negative. Also NASDAQ was brought down by AAPL which also closed negative. Not sure if today was really an all out bull case and we can go all-in long now.

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  45. Hi SC,
    USD bouncing strongly from the bottom trend line at 78.6. Headed to 79.8 upper trend and then who knows. Silver looking like its been spiked with copper as it is a little green.
    It's hard to believe we have 12 out of 14 red candle weeks for silver - i can find nothing historically to even come close to that. Gut says we should move up with so much red but USD could be at coil breakout on 15 yr cycle.
    Any thoughts going forward or are you as confused as me ? Some similarities with 1998 silver chart.

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  46. The action in Silver/Gold has been really slow. I still think they are grinding their way into support here, then a large upside move to follow.

    I've been waiting patiently for them to line up.

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  47. SILVER

    http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/9530/silverg.jpg

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  48. SC,

    Do you think VIX bottomed yesterday?

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    1. Bottom line is that bears need to start breaking supports quickly for that to be the case. 1390 SPX for example. The clock is ticking because the cycle analysis looks quite positive mid-May. Up until the 10th there are some negative spots.

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    2. Yes, so that is the concern.....I see plenty of reason for this to be negative into May 7th, so today might be a good day to take up the HVU position.

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  49. Thanks Sc.

    and Thanks joed, been following your charts for awhile. How about throwing the next RED yard jart arrow up around that big thick green line at 34 ? Just to make my day.

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    1. It has been a long process to wait for the metals to consolidate. My theory of Gold firming relative to Silver has been confirmed. This is encouraging, and gives confidence that the rest of my plan will also work.

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    2. Silver is "making room" for Gold to run hard. Silver is also setting to be a great performer though.

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  50. Hammerman

    LOL............if you wish! It's better to just trade what is in fron of us with one eye on the cycles.....most do the opposite out of romance! lol Best, joed

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  51. SC, what are you thinking. Markets are recouping losses so far this afternoon and the day may end up green. How does this bode for our waterfall idea into May 7th? IOW, what confirmation are you looking for?

    You mentioned you want to see 1396 and 1390 break, however would you recommend taking short positions now with a stop, or waiting until 1390?

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    1. Obviously, we are seeing evidence of the negative early May cycles in the market. However, the current action is more consistent with back and fill corrective action. In other words the negatives are amounting to dips but not major drops.

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  52. SC,

    Are you planning reentry in UVXY soon or wait for S & P to touch 1420?

    Thanks

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    1. Hi SB

      Dont think SC sold his UVXY yet. He is waiting as far as posting here goes for a better exit price and re-enter later.


      Thanks!

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  53. I'm going to wait for things to develop some more. Very slow.

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    1. you may have to wait another 1/2 year for anything serious to develop. summer crash / when most traders are gone? i dont think so.

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  54. SS76,

    I saw you posted on SH that you bought at 3.44 before close, HVU.

    I want to stress that VIX looking at daily chart can easily reach close to 17 or high 16's interaday and I think that would be final nail on coffin of this bull rally.

    I see DOW touching close to 13500 and S & P somewhere 1425 or little higher during that time.

    Looking at VIX chart it is very well set it's path to touch those level.

    Just be careful.

    Thanks

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  55. Stockbook, thanks very much. I agree that it could head down, this trade is on my gut as I always targeted May 6th Euro elections to make the markets really nervous, and the jobs report on Friday to cause anxiety.

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