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Monday, April 23, 2012

$SPX - Minimal Downside Still Possible

A double bottom with April 10th was suggested as a minimum target.  That level was reached today.  There is support at that level, as shown previously, therefore it bounced.  Yet price could still drift just underneath in coming days. 

15min Chart

65 comments:

  1. I'll have Gold and Silver updates tomorrow. Same plan, they could drift a little lower as well.

    Bigger picture charts will be coming shortly.

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  2. I think you would be wise to sell your UVXY on any gain in the first hour today..

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  3. Do you think 1365 was our low?

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  4. NDX looks weak. Let's see how things settle here.

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  5. I think the next buy opportunity for HVU is Wednesday afternoon.

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  6. Hi SC

    Do you still see this 18$ UVXY today or tomorrow?


    Thanks!

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  7. Well it's pretty slow right now. There should be resistance for SPX around 1380 if it keeps crawling up here. NDX still is weak.

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  8. I think Apple will lift the market, with this recent sell off unjustified. I think we will also get a hint on the Iphone 5.

    That will propel the markets tomorrow, with Thursdays jobs report bringing things back to reality.

    Hence my HVU target of Wed afternoon to buy.

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    Replies
    1. Hi SS76

      Place your bet lol. AAPL been down for a long time. Lot of tech stock beat earning, but went down hill with forecast. I am thinking it will beat too thought, just cause of opposite of everyone else.


      Thanks!

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    2. SC, I think you panicked yesterday when you sold XIV even with a small profit and got back into UVXY. Sometimes greed gets the better of us but last Friday you were near your target zone and should have taken the profit rather than chase a few points.

      These days though volitity has the edge and I think UVXY will be fine but I think you could have played this better.

      Anyways, lets see what happens, betting tomorrow is a positive day for the S&P

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    3. Definitely could have played it much better. There should be some good opportunity coming soon anyways.

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  9. I'm still holding TVIX b/c I have to, and I know I'm taking the risk it will go to zero, but my $$ has been cut in half already, so I guess I'm taking a huge chance that I'll at least make what I put in. I realize it's a gamble more than an investment. Any thoughts on the direction of TVIX in the coming months? If it can make it up to the $18s I'll be ecstatic and count myself fortunate and lucky but still not smart. Thanks.

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  10. The erosion is what kills these things....personally if I was you, I would sell and rebuy when the S&P hits 1450....I think at the close today will be your best opporuntity to sell it.

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  11. Hi SC

    Are you still holding onto your UVXY from yesterday over night tonight?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. I'm considering selling it. Not much happening. NDX has a lower low from yesterday, but SPX is hanging in there.

      I still think the VIX has another spike coming, but perhaps that is still a few days away.

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  12. Aapl gloom does seem a bit too thick today.

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    Replies
    1. That was so 5 minutes ago lol. Really coming off 555 hard.

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    2. Lol, yes, making a ski jump move there.

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  13. Hi SC

    Do you think we still have a chance of going below the 1360?

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    Replies
    1. That is still possible up until the end of the month.

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  14. I suspect a below expectations appl report which will flush out remaining sellers and then we will be ready for a rebound.

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  15. AAPL

    "Measured Move" on APPL daily........Line in the sand!

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  16. Replies
    1. Was willing to give it a test yesterday, and while the NDX is lower, SPX is holding and volatility is light. Will let it settle, and look for another spot.

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  17. Interesting on the potential of a VIX spike shortly....

    http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/vix:-a-must-check-out-chart-121161

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  18. holy crap, talk about crazy AAPL, it control the entire AH after earning, SnP in AH went up like a rocket. This is crazy how one stock can shot that much juice out.

    Something is not right. what you think SC?

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  19. Yes Aapl is a big % of the market. The bar was set low on these earnings, and the media was plastering on the gloom this morning. Surprise - not really...


    SCApr 24, 2012 11:34 AM
    Aapl gloom does seem a bit too thick today.

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  20. ZigZag,
    in the last two years, May was a high, then this May should correspond. AAPL rally next two weeks, peaking out May 7 Then doldrums down into late June for a corrective low.

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    Replies
    1. Hey GG.. Yes, that's what I'm thinking. I've been hitting sometime close to June 11th.

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  21. SC,

    are you going to buy uvxy today?

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    Replies
    1. I think buying UVXY today is a good idea....

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    2. ss, r u going to buy hvu?

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  22. my target hvu bottom @ 3.50 it will get there if you wait alittle more you will get cheaper price .

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  23. SC,

    Are you entering in UVXY now? or you think it will drag lower?

    Thanks

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  24. VIX futures are holding well and seemat at a low for today. This may be a good entry at least for a day trade.

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  25. Zigzag, your chart from earlier this year has been very accurate but it ends May 8th. Do you have the forecast for the rest of the year? If you do not mind, can you hint what is the basis of your work? Cycle, fractal, proprietary technical indicator? It is one thing that pins the top and bottom, it is another whole story that describes the path. If you don't want to disclose, I fully understand. But I do want to know what you have to say for the rest of the year and foreseeable future.

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    Replies
    1. Hi Panda,

      It actually doesn't peak until the end of September. http://tinyurl.com/6t8pff4
      I'll explain more about this chart later this week. Remind me! :-)

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  26. SC, SPX touch 1390 this morning, do you think there is more upside here or would it drit lower later in the week.

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  27. What time Ben is going to talk?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Rate announcement @ 12:30 est
      Bernanke press conf. @ 2:15 est.

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  28. What's up with silver? It had more room to the downside it appears than gold, but it has me a little nervous pre-ben talk.

    Silver on my chart just broke out of it's channel to the downside on the daily.

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  29. Sorry my internet connection was out this morning. I bought UVXY heavy at $14.57. It is trading at the support zone mentioned a number of times in April.

    The VIX is ready to spike again into the end of April. UVXY could reach $18.50 to $20 maximum imo.

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    Replies
    1. What would be your high target range for UVXY and HVU respectively?
      Thanks

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    2. Sorry I see $20 max for UXVY, so around $5 for HVU?

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    3. HVU reached the $3.80 I have targeted previously. The min would be $5.00 and max $5.30.

      I believe the April 10th high will hold.

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  30. More to the point, we need to see a spike in the VIX to confirm a bottom for SPX.

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  31. SILVER

    http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/108/silverc.jpg

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    1. Can't see the date for new low...can you please advice?

      Thank you

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    2. Stock

      I look at time as a WINDOW of pressure.........my date is 4/30.....but I am starting to scale in now off my 240 chart! joed

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  32. ss, do you put stop for hvu? and how much thanks.

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  33. SPX may finally try to reach for my red fork line at 1395.50. That should be very strong resistance.

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    Replies
    1. SC,

      what do you think now? after Ben speech? VIX set to go lower or higher?

      Thanks

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    2. Fed basically a non-event. VIX heading for approx 23 next few days imo.

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  34. Let's see if SPX reached 1395.50 here.

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  35. set your stop lost HVU will go to 3.50

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  36. Look at daily chart of SPX and daily chart of Vix
    one heading higher the other going lower .

    http://www.forexpros.com/commodities/natural-gas-advanced-chart

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  37. market might pull back tomorrow but Dow Jone chart show going to 13300 which match with spx 1425 and Vix @16 (Foxe-pro)

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    Replies
    1. There should be a final spike coming for the VIX next few days, then yes the market will be set to run higher into May.

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  38. Market back up today.
    come on ZZ, admit it - you must have been sweating a little?
    ;-)

    http://postimage.org/image/8eua8xbcz/
    May 7 target time.

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    Replies
    1. Maybe a couple beads of sweat, but nothing like when we got stuck on that ski lift together. Remember that? :-)

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  39. Where is the updated Gold Chart ?

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    Replies
    1. I'll post that tomorrow. Gold has been sluggish lately, but the setup is going to be exciting.

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