Pages

Thursday, April 26, 2012

$SPX - Waterfall Decline Coming to 1326

The high for 2012 is already in place at 1422 SPX.  The bear market has already begun.  A lower high is near. 
Next a waterfall decline to approximately 1326 SPX is imminent.  The timing to hit the waterfall low is early May.

2hour Chart

85 comments:

  1. There is further analysis coming shortly to support this position. This bounce won't be able to hold much longer....

    ReplyDelete
  2. 1325 would definately be a prime target. Not exactly too exciting, but it'd sure make the last few painful days for the bears, a bit easier.

    Good wishes for Friday..and into May!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is just the beginning. This is going to be a fun market to trade with a lot of big chop.

      Delete
  3. Oh boy.. Last time we got a post like this.. we watched S&P go up a 100 points... I suppose we'll wait and see

    is what we can do.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Now, some target SnP-1440. early May - high or low?????

    ReplyDelete
  5. Europe is just too weak. SPX has been hanging in there, but these gyrations are bearish indications of instability. SPX is heading lower.

    ReplyDelete
  6. TZA

    http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/2214/tzap.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  7. JOED... isn't the TZA chart contrary to your Dow Cycle anlysis chart which marks a bottom yesterday/today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sami

      The circle represent a turn, time only! I did not give an arrow direction only the two turn date lines as my cycle work showed chop into the turn! joed

      Delete
  8. so the Circle could be interpreted as a top as well .. that would align up with your silver and tza charts as well.

    Thanks for the clarification.. I appreciate it very much Joe.

    :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes............when the Master cycle is straight forward I post it with an "arrow line ahead", this area was more choppy into the turn! joed

      Delete
    2. Also this area now is straight forward unless there is a complete "inversion" in this next leg......this market should move downward now into June! joed

      Delete
  9. SC... so your saying we're not going to see your target 1460 any longer this year???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is correct Sami. Earlier in April I thought there may be one last pop to a higher high in May. That is because I see some positive spots in mid-later May.

      So what I am saying is that we plunge next to 1326, then rally strongly from that low but it is only going to amount to a lower high because of the plunge.

      Delete
    2. HI SC
      ditto for May 15th
      we are at a similar point in the current wave as we were
      last yr.
      Equate Apr 2nd at 1422 to May 2nd,2011 at 1370; and Apr 26 at 1400 to June 1st-2011 at 1344.
      Also similar wave counts but different wave DEGREE
      best wishes
      Jaywiz

      Delete
  10. I'm wi u SC, got my UVXY on sale for $12.95 and set the sell button on $25.50. if U look at the canary...BAC... didn't do a thing today, not even half a days volume...after dropping over 10% this month, still not attracttive??? or something bout to happen??? let's make some $$$$

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, completely agree. BAC is in a heap of trouble. It's one of the main issues that I see in this coming bear market.

      Delete
  11. European indices have finished 5 waves down and need a wave 2 upward move....at the same time S&P could really test the highs or even make new ones as the scenario that we ended a 4th wave at 1358 is still very possible.

    profitablerisktaking.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  12. SC and Alexander, both plausible scenarios....I tend to side with Alexander in that the momentum is up, and the S&P has time to get overbought still....so I am favouring higher rather than lower, with Wed next week turning negative and the best HVU entry point.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Perhaps though, around 1:30pm would be a good HVU buy as traders look for protection over the weekend given what happened last Monday...

    Just not sure at this point. I favour the market going up in the near term rather than down. Notice how it seems to have shrugged off the Spain news....24% unemployment, rating downgrade, etc.....seems this market is truly made of teflon. Now, could be an early morning headfake, however with the soft GDP number, the market will speculate that QE3 is coming, at least this morning it will.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Spain shrugged off downgrade as did all of Europe

    ReplyDelete
  15. It is amazing how they turn negative news into a expectation of more QE...LOL and pump the market more...

    GDP way off from their expectation and market is green and commodities are rising...

    well..nothing we can do..just watch

    ReplyDelete
  16. VIX chart is really scary, if it doesn't hold today then we are for sure looking at low 16's on VIX...daily chart have lots of room to go that level without any hurdle...

    Anyone see that?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  17. My cycle analysis is weak until after May 10th. The spots that are quite negative are around May 1st, May 4th. May 9-10th is the date I am favouring for a bottom 1326 SPX.

    It does not look to me like there is anything significant for SPX upside. My cycle analysis had some positive spots over the last week but they have already passed. Therefore, I am confident we are heading lower. I think it slides slowly to start and the pace picks up dramatically into a vertical waterfall.

    ReplyDelete
  18. When I lined up my red fork resistance on the secondary peak as shown on the chart above there should be major resisance at 1404 SPX. That should be it for this bounce.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Replies
    1. I don't believe that is possible.

      Delete
  20. ok. Got nervous and bought HVU at $3.47.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Hit 1404 SPX and sold off. Top of this bounce is in place in my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Placed my HVU stop at $3.50

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. you will be stop out i guess in next 30 min...

      Delete
  23. Replies
    1. No re entry?

      I would have thought of putting stop loss around 3.40...

      Delete
  24. No, bought HND at $41.75 instead, look for a re-entry afternoon as I think the US market will rally after Europe is closed. HND should also be north of $44 by that point too.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When you targeting to reenter in HVU, end of the day?

      I know yesterday you mentioned that close of the day should provide great entry...

      Delete
  25. Is gold/silver bull over then?

    ReplyDelete
  26. Stockboom, I constantly reassess, especially with HVU but I haven't been great at trading it. What I do know, is that unless I am 200% confident, then holding HVU overnight is a big risk.

    Yesterdays entry was good as today it hit $3.60, but when I see the S&P rebounding, I'm nervous and want to protect against further losses. Plus I feel that HND is a sure thing so its a good place to park while the SPX figures itself out as clearly its looking for direction.

    While my brain tells me that SC is probably correct, my gut tells me the SPX heads higher first....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have no doubt that with contago in effect HND is great place to be...but same time I know there is no turning back on market and no news is moving bulls...but there has to be some limit on how much market can go from here just base on speculation....

      Delete
  27. The Silver bull has been over since April 2011. The Gold bull is not over yet but once it pushes up to around $2,050, then it'll be over as well.

    From my point of view Gold and Silver have strong upside in the near term.

    ReplyDelete
  28. I do agree that some European markets look like they are ready to consolidate. My stance is that SPX needs to snap into place with the sharp declines that have already occurred in European markets.

    SPX could therefore underperform Europe between now and May 10th.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Basically Europe can trade sideways next week with SPX declining.

      Delete
  29. if a Huge Spain Downgrade.. and a big GDP miss doesn't tank this market... we are going upwards ladies and gentlemen.

    I saw this towards the end of december.. market ignoring everything and hanging tight before a large move up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. gotta be careful too Sami, market could simply be stalling as we've seen that before too....I'm inclined to wait on this to develop first and if I miss the drop, I'll ride it back up with HVI.

      Delete
    2. You won't miss the drop SS because the whole process should start slowly. There is plenty of time. It should slowly slide to start with then accelerate down. Very much reminiscent of late July 2011 to Aug decline.

      Nothing wrong with waiting for the market to roll over and shorting on lower highs. I do believe we are trading right at the top of this bounce though.

      Delete
    3. My fear SC, is with a slow slide, HVU tumbles, but the larger slide is where it shines! Anyways, we are heading for more volatility so staying in HVU now is probably not a lost cause either, just not sure to be able to maximize the gain...

      Delete
  30. SC buddy you get me confused.
    One moment your are saying that the VIX will pop and then plunge to new lows and a few days later you are saying that the SPX is making lower highs and that the highs for the year are in, which in my book doesnt translate to the VIX plunging.

    Which is it?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SPX is set to plunge into mid May. VIX spikes. However, starting mid May SPX rebounds sharply from 1326 to a lower high. VIX plunges. In other words we are in a very choppy market environment.

      I have a number of charts coming on the weekend which will outline my reasoning clearly. A picture is worth a thousand words.

      Delete
  31. Here is a big differece between ZZ and SC charts
    We wull see ~

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I won't speak for ZZ, and his timing has been excellent. What I wonder is could the May 8th turning point on that chart point to a reversion and a low instead of a high. That would match up nicely with my cycle analysis which looks negative and suggests a May 9-10th low.

      If this is the case then ZZ's timing is correct. Like I said I won't speak for him, and his work is much appreciated. Let's see what happens.

      Delete
  32. Couldn't agree more with Stockboom. Absolutely laughable how they turned around negative GDP and spin it into positive.

    Look at Europe. Disastrous figures from Germany,France and Italy on retail sales.
    UK and Spain in confirmed recession, Spanish downgrade and the market rallies on the expectation of more QE.

    I've said it before, these markets are broken, they can't rally on fundamentals other than on the expectation of liquidity.

    The real humdinger for me was the analyst yesterday saying that 401k investors only need to invest in two stocks, AAPL and Exxon.

    That ludicrous advice just about sums up how absurd this market has become.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Replies
    1. I don't have a hard stop in, but it would not be acceptable for SPX to rally much over the current level. A solid confirmation would be for the market to stall out and start to slump over the next couple of days. So those are the acceptable parameters in both time and price.

      Delete
    2. and what does "rally much" mean?

      Delete
  34. Looks like VIX is about to get big lift....watch out....fun last three hours now...

    Next 20 to 30 min...or max by 2 PM...it should start lifting..

    Cheers...hold you seats..

    ReplyDelete
  35. Ready...it looks like started...

    ReplyDelete
  36. Sorry for the rant but now we're being told that AMZN at 170 X earnings is still cheap.
    Gimme a break!......They haven't made decent margins on anything they sell since they began trading and I don't care HOW GOOD the business model is the bottom line IS just that...the bottom line.

    It's time they put up or shut up!

    ReplyDelete
  37. 1404 broken through....up into the close?

    ReplyDelete
  38. Looks like DOW is eyeing 13300...no one can stop it now..

    ReplyDelete
  39. I think I may take half a position at the close of trading today in HVU.

    ReplyDelete
  40. What I will say, is that it doesn't look like VIX futures really believe todays S&P rally.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are absolutely right in saying that, VIX is not much down even market is running high...today could be very well sucker rally...big players want maximum participation of retail players...to screw them!

      Delete
  41. ok, back in at $3.45 HVU....

    ReplyDelete
  42. Interesting point on Vix futures not down much today, usually this is a clear indication of a market top and coming volatility spike in the days ahead. next week should be interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Ya, I agree sun_shine.....the VIX futures are quite telling. Fear is building up again for another spike. $5 would be nice for HVU.

    Could be much better with May 6th French elections perhaps really thrwing the Euro into chaos!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Short term equity charts (both 5-min and hourly) are largely moving back into up trends now, signaling the correction of the past two weeks has ended (thanks more to the dollar's decline than anything else, I would say.) However, hourly stochastics are already overbought at the upper extremes and thus far we've only had one mini leg up, so a pullback would be in order for early next week before the larger short term upchannel develops much further.

      Delete
  44. a $3.50+ close for HVU would be nice.

    ReplyDelete
  45. http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/8867/dowr.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  46. Hello JOED.. do you see any possibility of us breaking up higher to possibly test the highs in this run up? around 1420.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sami

      I really don’t think in those terms………although if you look at the Dow chart the thick, kinda purple line is severe resistance and has been! I think more in lines of price and time being in, moving into the time period I am trading for the setup, getting into the trade and then moving to break even and so on! If your analysis of the picture is lacking you focus more on one dimension and any one dimension will fail and usually does when you have had a successful run! It’s more important you develop your analysis picture and knowledge than it is focusing on making money or a target! For the record I am building a short trade as of this high and because of this picture will have a trade at no cost very soon! Best, joed

      Delete
  47. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  48. ZigZag, I posted this several days ago.
    Sooooo close to 13,200
    http://i46.tinypic.com/2e67o1k.png

    there's power in the T's - you just have to find them!

    ReplyDelete
  49. SILVER

    http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/4219/silcer.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  50. There are no mystery to Landry's T's , they were really Gann's box tried to be done one legged! Problem is one searches because of a loss of the foundation!

    http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/6616/tsqy.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  51. Joed.. Just out of curiosity do you think in the next 5 years we will see S&P below 800 to possibly test the lows of march 2009?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sami

      If you are talking 5 years..........at this point in the cycle the answer is yes! joed

      Delete
  52. Considering where we closed Friday...1403...and you just wrote that we've seen the high for 2012 at 1422...I will be very interested to see what you have to say on the next post. The last 3 days this week we saw a bunch of stocks break out to all time highs. Lots of hot soup on the stove here.And now home builder stocks are starting to rally. Shorting gung-ho here looks dangerous here to me.

    ReplyDelete
  53. better check the financials...if you looking for a better economy banks gotta win....loan et...BAC has done squat last week. dont' get too warm and fuzzy about a bull run.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you're talkin to me...I don't think warm and fuzzy exists. If you've got a timely S&P prediction..lets hear it.

      Delete
    2. latest 5 wave up 48 pts. if you ever heard of fibonacci suffice it say 1377-1387 range for retracement %'s ...also 1381 current 50DMA.
      that's initial observations of course so don't let that hot soup boil too long.

      Delete
  54. Clif Droke thinks the weekly cycle has peaked on 27 Apr 12 (+/- 1-2 days), thereafter the dominant cycles are pointing down into 1 Jun 12.

    ReplyDelete
  55. doug kass which has been spot on lately.. calling for S&P fair value of 1485. he has been spot on since december tho.
    This worries me

    ReplyDelete
  56. Doug Kass changes his fair value three times since Dec

    ReplyDelete