Pages

Thursday, April 19, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Update

The turquoise fork line proved to be strong resistance, and price slumped after testing it a few times.  However, the bear flag support held at the close.  As well the VIX didn't move much and actually closed down on the day.

15min Chart

49 comments:

  1. so, you see one last push to 1395 SC? Monday and Tuesday very negative?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yes rally some more for SPX today. Then early next week we should see that plunge. The target for that is 1355-60 SPX.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So basically a double bottom with April 10th.

      Delete
    2. sc, when do you want to switch to uvxy, today or monday?

      Delete
    3. Probably switch later today. I would like to see it come down into the $14's in any case.

      Delete
  3. Will you scale in when its in the $14's, or will you have a full position by the end of the day?

    ReplyDelete
  4. SC rally for silver also today ?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  5. Provided that it drops down into that range I'll put a full position in place.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I thought Silver may bounce better along with SPX but it only managed a small pop. It can bounce some more, probably will, but I think both Silver and Gold should head a little lower next week.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Back at that same resistance for SPX, but this time should have the strength to break it and head higher.

    ReplyDelete
  8. SC
    You say that silver will not be $34.But you were so sure.Anyway,what is silver top target now early next week?

    ReplyDelete
  9. and if not? Will you pay a higher price given Monday and Tuesday will be negative?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi SC

    how high do you see us going today in snp as a forecast before you make a switch with XIV to UVXY


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Silver did bounce but has been sluggish. A pop into the $32's looks probable.

    ReplyDelete
  12. 1398 SPX is the red fork target. I'm going size things up later in the day.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Just getting that feeling that the market is going to reverse this afternoon.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Anyone playing NG? HNU/HND?

    Thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  15. I've been watching Nat Gas closely. I believe it is getting close to bottom with a bull market to start next. It needs capitulation down to $1.75 or something to mark a bottom imo. It can bounce sharply here and there, but a little more downside and the turn looks close at hand.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Based on your analysis, do you think it is due for small jump from here? and then plunge?

      Thanks

      Delete
    2. NG has been sliding down that trendline above since mid March. Could see a sharp pop if it can break above, but yes the bottom probably is lower yet.

      Delete
  16. CRUDE UPDATE CHART

    http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/2755/crude.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  17. No, still waiting. May wait for Monday.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Interesting. With such confidence in Monday/Tuesday being ugly days, not to mention the SPX already went up to 1392 on this leg, seems strange you would take the chance.

      I sold my HVI at $9.20 today and bought HVU at $4.25 for the weekend hold. Perhaps the IMF has good news this weekend....I think spanish bond yields along with the French election results will dominate Mondays market.

      Delete
    2. Partly it's because my cycle analysis is positive this weekend so my thinking is that translates into another up day Monday. Between Monday and Wed the bottom should fall out though.

      Delete
  18. SPX holding well today. Likely to see the rally continue on Monday imo.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hi SC

    I need your help here normally RSI and Macd crossed up so it must go up higher 5hours charts showing going down and daily chart still showing it will go up futher which one is correct ?
    with your opion you will base on 5hrs chart or daily chart ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Myself I think we're heading higher.

      Delete
    2. Thanks for your confirm SC , my daily chart shows market will go higher but 5hrs chart showing it 'll go down i m confuse :)

      Delete
    3. It's because of all this chop that they are pointing in different directions.

      Delete
  20. EMINI

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/832/emini240min.jpg/

    ReplyDelete
  21. looks like the market reversed as I felt it would this morning....lets see how it plays out into the close.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Hi SC

    you holding your XIV over this weekend then?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hi SC

    wondering if there is going to be new update over the weekend for vix or spx?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, updates are coming. I have a specific plan for next week.

      Delete
  24. SC, what do you think for silver on Monday ?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  25. Well, it tested and again failed to break resistance at 1388. This is a bad sign not only in that it failed, but fell all the way back to 1379. I guess we'll see come Monday, but to repeatedly test and not break, could suggest a big drop coming which you already see. Question is whether that happens before market opens on Monday or after....

    ReplyDelete
  26. anyone notice SNP hourly chart?? check pattern from 3-06-12 thru 3-29-12...now compare that to 4-10-12 thru today...look kinda same?? a lil' bro to the big bro. Bradley turn 4-23 could be the next high before it goes over like big bro did...time will tell.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you, nice looking fractal.

      Delete
  27. Next week will be an interesting week to study the influence of geocentric and heliocentric effects on the markets.

    On the Geocentric fronts - we have mercury translating the Uranus Pluto Square. Mercury will sit in between Uranus and Pluto on around the 24 Apr in the cardinal sign.

    We also have an aspect of Sun making a waning trine (240 deg) to Mars. In lose combination to the following week Sun trine Pluto aspect - thus the Sun, Mars and Pluto are in a relatively loose grand trine configuration in the earth sign.

    On the Heliocentric fronts - we have 2 heliocentric cycles occurring in close succession. One is the Helio Mercury conjunction to Helio Pluto, the other is the Helio Venus conjunction to Helio Mars. Both these cycles occurring in the cardinal sign will come in around the 22-23 Apr.

    I suspect the markets will be receiving lots of cosmic energy from these cycles, and the volatility of the markets is likely to rise.

    http://imageshack.us/f/138/screenhunter08apr210939.gif/

    http://imageshack.us/f/692/screenhunter10apr211001k.gif/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ok so do we go up or down chief?

      Delete
    2. Hi Timer

      I 'm confused :(
      whatever happen up there ( geocentric and heliocentric ) why it effects the market ? Sorry , properly i m lost . Please explain ...

      Thanks

      Delete
    3. Sami,

      There is a weekly cycle that is peaking next week, there after the dominant weekly cycle is pointing down for the month of May into June. Thus my guess is a pop or "head fake" move either till Monday or Tuesday, then a sell off to start towards the weekend.

      Destiny,

      I am a student of financial astrology cycles. The theory is that market moves in reaction to multitude of cycles, and some of these cycles are represented by the natural astronomical cycles as occurred above us. Our daily life (day and night, seasons, etc) is affected by cycles - by extension of this thinking, it covers everything else. I started as a skeptic, until I have observed enough of the market movements correlation to the naturally occurring cycles, to start accepting the unthinkable.

      Delete
    4. Timer

      You sound like one of my friend , he mentioned many times about full moon coincidence affect market moving which i didnt understand much about it but i respect people opions and beleiving .

      Delete
  28. Hi SC,

    Can we still expect Silver (spot) will go up to 34$ level or this expectation is dead due to market action after friday?

    When can we see your gold and updated silver chart?
    Thank you.
    RB

    ReplyDelete
  29. ZIG ZAG

    "ZigZagApr 16, 2012 08:09 PM
    Hi InvestBB,

    No change in the forecast. They're testing the 4/10 low and I'm expecting this week to be up."

    ARE YOU STILL BUYING INTO THIS? Tx!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I'm still buying. The 4/10 low will likely hold.

      Delete