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Sunday, April 8, 2012

$SPX - Approaching Target Zone

SPX 1366-72 is the target zone outlined in prior analysis and that level is set to be tested this week.  There is strong support at this level, and after spending some time to firm up, a sharp bounce is to be expected.

30min Chart

73 comments:

  1. Hi SC

    Curious to know are you in cash or would you go for xiv, after you sold your UVXY.

    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. I have a plan for that. Let me explain tomorrow with prices. I see this month as choppy so there is opportunity in both UVXY and XIV. It should be a great month for trading.

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  2. FOR THE FARMERS

    SOYBEANS



    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/404/beans.jpg/

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    1. Joed: Would you elaborate few words about your chart? What is this "soybeans" stand for? Do you mean a pull back here and go up to 1446.25 next? As a beginner, I'm really dumb to understand. Thanks for your post.

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  3. from your chart looks like support at 1375

    u said strong early this week and weak at the end right

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    Replies
    1. Yes, I think bounce early in the week, and then decline late in the week again.

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    2. Wed, Thurs are negative.

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  4. Two big banks, WFC & JPM report earnings on Friday. Think that may get the next ball rolling in one direction or the other

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  5. SC, do you still expect a lower low for silver around the 10th ??

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    Replies
    1. It should trade lower this week.

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    2. SC, when is a good time to re-enter UVXY or HVU?

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    3. I think they'll drop for a few days, and then rise. So I am waiting a few days.

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  6. Hi SC

    Notice you didnt get into UVXY or XIV today.

    you seeing we still going lower with UVXY and higher with SPY tomorrow or is there any changes from today's action?

    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. XIV would be the next move I'd look at making. UVXY looks like it is heading to around $14 next.

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  7. SC, do you mean a lower or higer low for silver this week ?
    And what is the price you would like to see ?
    Many thanks

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    Replies
    1. A lower low. Notice that Gold is stronger, and this is important to see.

      I'm planning to review the price levels once some more action unfolds. Quiet and sideways for the last few days for Silver.

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  8. looking good for cycle analysis so far.

    you mention wed/thur is weak, how about friday?

    and you mentioned early week of Opex is weak too? any more details?

    appreciated it!

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    Replies
    1. It has worked well:

      SCMar 27, 2012 01:50 PM
      It turns negative on Friday, and most of next week is negative especially around the 6th.

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    2. Today/tomorrow are positive, then negative Wed, Thurs. Fri is positive and Monday is negative.

      My take for SPX is that we bounce well for a few days, then dive again to a lower low this Thur or Monday.

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    3. Starting around April 19th things look quite positive again.

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    4. Hi SC

      guessing you would probably go for UVXY tomorrow?

      XIV after next monday and hold till we reach the moon?


      Thanks!

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    5. Basically, yes. Ideally, I'd like to get back in around $14 for a run into the $20's.

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    6. Hi SC

      for UVXY to drop near 14 tomorrow, we have to have a gap up and rise or something like that I assume, looking at the current future price in after market hour, it doesnt look great. What is your thought on if we barely drop tomorrow or just wont drop but rise tomorrow, would you get in no matter what tomorrow, into UVXY, even at a higher price? (Or you dont see that probability to happen, that you will most likely get in at a lower price than today from your cycle work?)


      Thanks!

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    7. Let's see what it looks like tomorrow. I will wait for it to settle.

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    8. Hi SC

      you got patient like ball of steel. Awesome.

      thanks for the responses.

      "I have a plan for that. Let me explain tomorrow with prices. I see this month as choppy so there is opportunity in both UVXY and XIV. It should be a great month for trading." <--- Are you planning on showing us this tonight?


      Thanks!

      Delete
  9. Oil looks good for a bottom today. It could run to $113 or so next.

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  10. Hi SC,
    is it possible that silver put in a double bottom ?

    I see above that you are still comfortable with a lower low coming in silver .
    I've been patient and waiting although I'm tempted.

    USD dropped a bit and is looking weak like wanting to drop into the 78's although a word from Uncle Ben could change that in a heartbeat.

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    Replies
    1. I'm going to give it a bit more time, and I think we'll have the answer this week.

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    2. USD is in very similar declining wedge pattern that pushed it up $ 1.5 on April 3rd. We'll see if USD rockets north again this afternoon to bring PM's down.

      I've been looking at 15 yr USD cycles and the 1996 USD coil pattern, just before USD took off big time through 2001 looks eerily similar.
      You started trading about then, any similarities or am I reading things into the picture as a paranoid delusion ?

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    3. Let me take a look at that, thanks.

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  11. I gotta give it to JOEd though.. I have never seen any other analyst so dead on with trading forcasts...

    How his not a billionaire is beyond me...

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  12. http://change-in-trend.blogspot.com/2012/04/apple-ready-to-fall-from-tree.html

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  13. Hi SC

    Hard to see UVXY hit near 14 ish today, any newer target update you looking for today with UVXY?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. I'm still looking at it the same way. Could take a few days.

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    2. Hi SC

      does today action affect your outlook for wednesday and thursday down day?

      any change?


      Thanks!

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    3. SPX hit minimum target 1372. We may just spend the next few days firming up around this level then a solid bounce.

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  14. Hi SC

    we just crack below 1370, in fact now at 1366, does that affect wed and thur outlook?

    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Sideways to slightly lower for a few days imo.

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  15. Bulls are in trouble SC.

    Europe is once again taking the lead down and the scary thing with US market is that AAPL hasn't even rolled over yet. God help the bulls if it takes a hit.

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    Replies
    1. Yes, it is true Apple has had a huge impact in floating the S&P this year. I think Apple is heading for a tumble in late May/June.

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  16. EMINI DAILY

    http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/1328/eminidaily.jpg

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  17. GOLD

    http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/3355/goldlv.jpg

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  18. Today, maybe tomorrow, will likely be a low on my cycle correlation that I've been posting here since mid December. I'm adding to longs today.

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    Replies
    1. Hi ZigZag

      wondering your target for the high for the rest of this week going to be spy?


      Thanks!

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    2. Ah, just like old times.
      except I think you were shorting tops.

      bought some calls yesterday, then dropped my puts today.
      gag. cough. too early. pain, pain.

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    3. Hi InvestBB, I'm not sure on the price, but probably not much until after Thursday. My cycle doesn't have a big move until sometime after the 12th. Maybe a bounce and then a retest?

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    4. GG, those were good times. :-)

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    5. ZigZag, according to you chart, the market will bottom around April 12, then bounce back till around May 8th. Is it right? Thanks!

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    6. Hi Chester...That is correct. We should see something pretty close to that.

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  19. thanks zig zag. metals may have put in the double bottom, nice shake out and reversal in gold today. adding to my longs as well.

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    Replies
    1. Is facebook next AAPL? next secret weapon to keep NAS100 afloat. i can see the title sometime this summer: "How AAPL and FCBK saved the world" lol the boyz are just having fun.

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    2. Good looking pop in GLD :-)

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  20. SC, JOED, ZIGZAG..et al
    Thanks for sharing your very professional work.
    Good trading to all.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Klaatu! Good trading to you too.

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  21. Klaatu

    Thank you for your kind words! I know the rest apprciate them also............Best, joed

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  22. Hi ZigZag

    Can you please post your most recent forecast with snp?

    The ones I saw before the bottom is around the 10th, not the 12t that chester mentioned.

    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Here ya go :-)

      http://tinyurl.com/6pzydah

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    2. Hi ZigZag

      I knew I wasnt drunk, April 10 was a low in your map, curious to know if you know what Chester is talking about with that April 12 date?

      By the way, AA beat the crap out of the street in AH, curious to know your take on that going into tomorrow market hour, we blowing back up? or would this be a non event after tonight?

      Thanks!

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    3. I think I mentioned the 12th earlier because that's the next little dip on that chart before the big rise. It's likely that we go up tomorrow and then retest sometime on Thursday before going up.

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    4. Hi ZigZag

      That dip looks so tiny, and April 10 low seems lower than that dip, better to hold the long if you buy today right?

      Thanks!

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    5. Yes, it's best to hold if bought today. There's always a chance this can be a day or two off, and this cycle has been working well for me for over two years.

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    6. ZZ, What happens after May 8?

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    7. We likely come back down and and test this April low before heading back up to another high in late September. After that, things get ugly.

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  23. all these damn leveraged etfs are a scam...
    Its crazy how people still buy them.

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  24. Hi SC

    Do you agree with ZigZag forecast into early May?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. My work is still negative until the 16th, mixed to the 19th, then it turns quite positive around the 19th and peaking May 14th. So a rise late April to mid May does makes sense.

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    2. My work says the 16th (SPX & ES)

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    3. SC: Thanks you for your job, may I ask how high could be on May 14th?

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    4. I'm working on that chart now Steven. I think I have a really good plan now. Thank you.

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  25. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  26. Hello SC,

    You were saying I work on Gold and Silver charts.
    When can we see PM charts and your latest analysis about Gold and Silver?

    Thank you for your efforts and kindness.
    RB

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  27. TECH buy signal was generated on close April-10th
    see the blog for data details

    BUT the mkt still needs to complete a 5th wave lower, if not today, then possibly April 18th or 20th

    Tomrrow has potential to rally & hold thru Friday's close
    but Friday early can be a little rough

    MY game plan is to GET LONG this afternoon at or before 3:30pm

    Jaywiz

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