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Wednesday, April 4, 2012

$SPX - Shuffle Update

The fork as shown in the last analysis has done a nice job of capturing the recent price action.  The midfork was tested yesterday.

SPX is likely to find support in the proximity of the orange fork line and bounce again short term.   

15min Chart

95 comments:

  1. I sold my UVXY. I think it is coming down again soon. I still see plenty of volatility in April, but I prefer to look for a better entry on it in a few days.

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  2. Right around here could be the bottom for Gold.

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  3. Hi SC,
    You are expecting a bounce on silver to 33.5 spot followed by the big drop next week ? (we dropped to 31.5 so far and it still looks like it has a ways to go). What time frame to get to 33.5 ? Looks like we're headed to 30.9 and if it breaks below that it could be a free fall.
    Gold approaching 1615, if it breaks below also very bad

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  4. I think what could happen here is that Silver/Gold bounce, and then come down again next week. Gold may dip a touch lower next week but little. Gold could even put in a higher low next week with Silver reaching a lower low.

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  5. SC,

    Please let us know when you reenter UVXY or HVU.

    Thanks

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  6. SC, are you sure that gold will not dip under $1600 today or tomorrow ?

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    Replies
    1. It could but I don't see much. Let's give it a little time here.

      Delete
  7. I'm thinking you believe that this bounce for HVU is a sell opportunity.......lower prices coming before days end and probably tomorrow I think.

    I now actually think the jobs numbers will be good on Friday, but not sure if that will be positive or negative for the market as a good jobs number reduces the likelyhood of QE3..

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    Replies
    1. There are a few reasons. Things could start to go quiet since we are approaching the holiday. My cycle analysis is negative for Fri, but then mildly positive early next week.

      I am going to size things up tomorrow and see if it makes sense to take any positions for the weekend.

      Delete
  8. SPX at the orange fork target.

    SCApr 2, 2012 08:34 AM
    SPX bounced exactly at the midfork shown above 1404.50 this morning.

    It should dip again soon imo. 1398 is a downside level to watch at the orange fork shown in previous analysis.

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  9. Hi SC

    Why would you leave UVXY so early? you dont think today is a down day at all?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. We're at a support for SPX, and have the holiday approaching. Things could go quiet and that would mean little volatility.

      Delete
  10. For UVXY or HVU, people should remember that VIX do not go high always when market drop, market could drop due to many reason such as profit taking, pull back etc. that doesn't mean VIX will rise sharply....unless there are bad news VIX will move around range...

    With current situation, markets are very stable and no panic so chances are VIX will dip again even market goes lower.

    SC did I make sense?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Generally that is the case.

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    2. I agree with stockboom, current market conditions look more like a correction rather than fear trade. VIX is spiking moderately but unless it goes and stays above 20, the market bulls will keep fighting. Mid to end of April will be interesting, I think the bulls will give a good fight all the way down to a 5-7% correction.

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  11. MARKETS

    http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/6503/beansw.jpg

    http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/2421/emini.jpg

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  12. Hi SC

    you have any target for the next low for UVXY?

    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Let's see tomorrow, and can then fine tune the numbers.

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  13. GOLD

    http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/6136/goldct.jpg

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  14. Anyone going long on Gold or silver for 24 hrs? I am thinking maybe short covering before long weekend will occur soon.

    Thanks

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  15. Funny how the S&P 500 always creeps back up in the last half hour. Back above 20MA again.

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  16. Hi SC

    can you tell us what price you sold your UVXY at?


    Thanks!
    David

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  17. SC

    didnt you mention that all first 3 weeks of april appears to be weak>?

    thx

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  18. There are some really weak spots throughout April, but I think it is going to be choppy. Similar to what we have seen recently, but the movements larger.

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  19. SC, will you buy HVU or UVXY before todays close? I am thinking with a robust job report tomorrow, and Spanish yields continuing to rise, the perfect storm is approaching as you predicted....We have gone up on the SPX for so long, no reason why it can't come down for an extended period. What worries me is that in an election year, they will ultimately push it up. Just wondering if the big fall happens first....which would be soon just enough to let QE3 boost the market in time for the election.

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    Replies
    1. More likely I'll wait until next week. I agree with the rest. The weakest months in my work are June and Sept. There is room in there for some strong bounces also.

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    2. Great, thanks SC. I think I'll buy HVU before todays out, as I think tomorrows jobs report will actually be strong, and dampen further the thought of QE3....with a long weekend, anything can happen too...

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    3. I think Monday could be an up day for the mkts so will likely wait until Monday. Let's see how it looks at the end of the day today.

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    4. What will sway you this afteroon on how Monday could shape up?

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    5. If UVXY rallies into the close, then I think it'll tumble on Monday.

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    6. Sorry, you think the market will tumble on Monday, or UVXY?

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    7. That is really interesting SC. Why would UVXY rally into the close and tank Monday? Is it because the fear of the long weekend would not be realized?

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    8. There is a pattern I am watching which is mainly why, but your comment makes sense too.

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    9. Now, is the opposite true also? Do you feel that if UVXY tanks into the close as it has done the last few sessions, that in fact will bounce Monday?

      Just trying to figure out how to position myself. I am in HVI (the canadian version of XIV) and not sure if I want to hold it or HVU or either over the weekend....

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    10. I think the probability is for mkts to bounce Monday, but not so sure I want to be in XIV either. I haven't decided, but may do neither.

      Delete
  20. SC
    Very nice job on gold and silver !

    IMO the USD at 80.07 is still climbing and should make the 80.4 trend line. It may tag the 81.7 upper main trend line too next week (which fits with your 2nd drop in PM) but the problem I see is that USD is very late in its 6 month cycle for 81.7. It is in month 5 of 6 and month 11 of 18 for the 1 1/2 year cycle. So, if the dollar caves at 80.4, then Jan was a USD cycle top - 2.5 of 6 months and PM's are on there way up to the end of April from there - no lower low maybe. If it tags 81.7, then you will be spot on for a big drop in PM next week in IMO.
    Also, USD is in day 2 of 33 (roughly) on a monthly and looking very left translated meaning topping in the next week is very reasonable.

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    Replies
    1. Good thoughts on the USD, thank you. This is an important time.

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  21. SC,
    Also, I'm seeing a bump to maybe 32 on silver but not 33.5 before the fall. Are you still thinking to see up to 33.5 before the drop next week ?

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    Replies
    1. No, Silver came close to $33.50 on April 3rd, and then fell quite a bit already so probably won't make it back there just yet.

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    2. What are you implying ? What is the next move for silver in your opinion ?
      Thanks

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  22. SPX bounced exactly at the lower pink fork line, now at the orange line.

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  23. Hi SC

    Do you have a price range where you plan to go back into UVXY now?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. There is a pattern that I am waiting to see. I'll let you know once it develops some more. I do think it can come down quite a bit.

      Delete
  24. Importantly Gold took out the March 22nd low. Silver put in a double bottom with the 22nd. In my work this suggests some more downside for Silver regardless of bounces.

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  25. SC, what is your maximum upside target for silver ? Yesterday you said 33.50 ? Is it still valid ?

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    Replies
    1. It is still possible that it could reach that level.

      Delete
  26. So SC. how does next week look?

    mildly positive all week?

    thanks

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    Replies
    1. It is mildly positive early next week. Then quite negative late next week and also early the following week.

      Delete
  27. Thanks, and for precious metals, gold and silver are going to rise in the middle of next week ?

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    Replies
    1. Bouncing now, but still see some downside next week. I would say rise early in the week, fall later in the week.

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    2. HI BOBO
      DITTO for metals, OIL, SPX AFTER MONDAY

      Jaywiz

      Delete
  28. Hi SC

    what position you think is best to hold over this long weekend, long or short snp?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Better odds for long imo, but not a given.

      Delete
  29. relying on others "opinions/guesses" is a recipe to go broke.. no crystal balls (blogs)

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  30. Left translated USD dollar

    http://change-in-trend.blogspot.com/

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  31. SPY WEEKLY

    http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/328/spywkly.jpg

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    Replies
    1. Joed- Excellent call for top on "DOW BE AWARE"
      Thanks for sharing.

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    2. Thanks joed, could you explain your chart more? You mean we could get another high above 1400 on June?

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    3. Compliment Joed for your call on the Dow. Right at the day. Have a nice easter.

      Delete
  32. Hy, sc i think sold Uvxy it's a big , big mistake. Futures plunge after data job and monday vix , uvxy and Tvix climb to the moon... Panic selling incoming... Fear incoming and start a new cyclical bear market incoming. Your roadmap for sp500 ? thanks.

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  33. Disastrous NFP and early signs of panic emerging over Spainish bond market.

    Things could get very ugly next week

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  34. TBONDS

    http://img842.imageshack.us/img842/6876/tbondsallll.jpg

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  35. Hi SC

    Do you still see Monday as mildly positive after that Job report today and looking at the future price? any changes you seeing?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. could be a gap down and rally... that is still "strong"

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    2. Friday was negative in my cycle analysis but then early next week is mildly positive. So it will be interesing to see how it plays out. A lower open, then rally makes sense.

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  36. ZigZag,
    April 10th?
    http://tinyurl.com/dymwoug
    can it be off a day?

    btw, love the hourly T's. when they work.
    let's see what Sunday brings.
    http://i39.tinypic.com/1zpjzw9.png

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. the example, I believe you called was a collision T.
      when instead of getting a high, you get the opposite.

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    2. March 23rd was a day off, so this next low could be closer to 11th-12th. Should be a nice run higher to May 8th once it starts.

      "Live long and prosper" :-)

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    3. YES it can be the 9th as indicated by SCIENTIFIC resources
      Jay

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    4. SCIENTIFIC resources my ass, Jay.

      Delete
  37. ATilla has gone bullish and calling for all time highs later this year... bears are Screwed as he is right almost 100% of the time - the exact timing.

    Time to redo charts...I almost puked when I read his tweet today

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    Replies
    1. Sami, his tweets are blocked. Can you re-post here?
      I appreciate that he is not married to his views/positions and is willing to adopt to changing market conditions.

      Zig Zag, do you see rally in metals coinciding with main market rally into may?

      thanks.

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    2. I don't follow the metals very much.. My guess is they will follow along and go up once the low is put in this week.

      Delete
  38. Yeas but first a steep correction in markets..Then a big rally..But hes been wrong before about this..No one know what will happen in Europe. Its a mess! A steep correction must be like 10-15% in short order.

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  39. I don't know if anyone could give me some insight here, but I'm holding a ton of TVIX, and I'm not sure what to do with it b/c of this contango, decay, etc. stuff that I do not understand. I realize that I have been stupid, dumb, naive, and all of those other negative things, and this is my own fault. Again...all of this is realized; however, I just want to come out with as little loss as possible or perhaps even a profit or a break even scenario. I bought at $17.35, and as I stated I have LOTS of shares. I don't know how to find out how much decay/contango is happening, so I'm not sure whether to keep holding and hoping (which already got me into the deep hole of trouble I'm into currently) or cut my losses (which would be extremely severe). Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wolf Haldenstein Announces Investigation of VelocityShares 2x Long VIX Short Term Exchange Traded Notes

      2012-03-29 17:19 ET - News Release



      NEW YORK -- (Business Wire)

      Attorney Advertising. The law firm of Wolf Haldenstein Adler Freeman & Herz LLP is investigating possible wrongdoing by Credit Suisse and others concerning trading in, and disclosure related to, VelocityShares 2x Long VIX Short Term ETN (Ticker Symbol: TVIX) during the period of February 21, 2012 – March 26, 2012.

      On February 21, 2012, Credit Suisse announced that it had temporarily suspended further issuances of the VelocityShares 2x Long VIX Short Term ETNs due to internal limits on the size of the ETNs. As a result of the suspension, shares of TVIX subsequently traded at prices uncorrelated to the VIX index – the index that the ETN was supposed to track through the use of VIX futures. This “disconnect” lasted for approximately one month.

      On March 22, 2012, shares of TVIX declined in price by over 29% as short-selling increased dramatically and suddenly. That evening, Credit Suisse announced that it would reopen issuance of TVIX shares on a limited basis. On March 23, 2012, shares of TVIX declined further by almost 30%.

      Wolf Haldenstein has been representing individual and institutional investors for many years, serving as lead counsel in numerous cases in U.S. federal and state courts. Please visit the Wolf Haldenstein website (http://www.whafh.com) for more information about the firm.

      If you are an institutional investor who owned VelocityShares 2x Long VIX Short Term ETNs (TVIX) on March 22 & 23, 2012 and you wish to discuss this matter with us, or have any questions concerning your rights and interests with regard to this matter, please contact:

      Gregory Nespole or Alan Weiss
      Wolf Haldenstein Adler Freeman & Herz LLP
      270 Madison Avenue
      New York, New York 10016
      Phone Numbers:
      (800) 575-0735
      (212) 545-4600

      Email: nespole@whafh.com
      aweiss@whafh.com
      Classmember@whafh.com

      Website: http://www.whafh.com
      Attorney Advertising. Prior Results Do Not Guarantee A Similar Outcome.



      Contacts:

      Wolf Haldenstein Adler Freeman & Herz LLP
      Gregory Nespole or Alan Weiss
      800-575-0735
      212-545-4600
      nespole@whafh.com
      aweiss@whafh.com
      Classmember@whafh.com
      Website: http://www.whafh.com


      Source: Wolf Haldenstein Adler Freeman & Herz LLP

      Delete
    2. I do think there are spots in April when the VIX can pop, and so you may be able to recoup somewhat. My plan is to be selective and pick and chose a few spots in April, but I don't see this as a long term hold.

      Delete
    3. SC, as the disappointed job report released on Friday, do you think the market may start a dip correction next week. As I sold my HVU on a big loss, I hope I can recover some loss by following your plan in April which should be a very volatile month.

      Delete
    4. I do think I have a good plan for April Chester, stay tuned.

      Delete
  40. POWER DATA for Monday thru Wed is showing some WILD SWINGS POSSIBLE

    Mon opens down & recovers later.

    Tuesday continues to mid day, then backs off

    WED starts flat, but drops till about 1pm, then recovers

    THE rest of the week will be available late Sunday

    Jaywiz

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  41. SC,

    you still waiting for 17 dollar silver... I know you expected it to happen in Feb, but it got pushed to march. Seeing that March is over are you expecting it to occur in april or has the time analysis pushed further out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My large pattern for Silver remains bullish from the low in Dec. So I am looking for a higher low to be put in soon and then head up again.

      Delete
  42. SC... so your saying we won't go above the 1430 mark you said this year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The outlook is bearish for the year. Right now I'm showing short term charts outlining the chop. I do think it all resolves to the downside.

      Delete
  43. ratandrea:
    This person offers a free blog and a paid newsletter with a lot of good information about trading vix etf's. I think the current contango decay is about 11 per cent per month.

    http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/

    Tvix and uvxy can spike 30 even 40 per cent in a day or two but unless we get some sort of panic going in the market they will quickly go back down. A lot of people are expecting a market panic soon so you will have to decide whether to play for the one or two day spikes or to bet on a larger scale move down, knowing you are losing about 11 per cent a month (that figure may be wrong, it's just what I heard).The tvix trade became extremely popular on a great many message boards in the last 2 months and in not one of them did I ever see this contango thing mentioned.

    Also when a rally is expected my understanding is that xiv gains from the contango just as tvix loses from it.

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  44. So you are not expecting your 17 dollar crash anymore?

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    Replies
    1. What I see is that a low will be formed soon then a run up to $38-39. Once that top is complete, then yes, Silver is heading for $17 by my analysis.

      Delete
  45. Well I will remain short based not exclusively on this but it is a BIG factor.....positively terrifying....The Fed have managed to do it yet again.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p06064550651

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