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Thursday, April 12, 2012

$SPX - Plunge Next Week

The VIX is settling as expected and likely will settle more tomorrow.  Next week, the VIX will be ready to spike again.  SPX may have minor upside later in the day tomorrow, but it is set to plunge again next week.

The minimum target is shown for next week.  However, SPX could drop all the way to the maximum target potentially.     

30min Chart















UVXY is likely to head down to test the red support after an early morning bounce tomorrow.  It will then be set to test the upside target outlined next week. 

TVIX is still not trading properly, and next week will present a spot to recoup for those with losses.  There is plenty of opportunity in these markets to recoup and regroup!  

Daily Chart

61 comments:

  1. I have another more detailed chart coming for UVXY next.

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  2. For HVU, the red support is around $3.92, and the upside target next week is $7.50.

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    1. Hi SC

      I m new here very interesting to read your posts
      as you mentioned above next week HVU will be 7.50
      my question is : how high will Vix go to make HVU @ 7.50 ? Do you have HVU chart ? Next week Vix will spike up do you also include contango will roll in ( as of Apr-16 ) ???

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    2. I chart the VIX and have a target quite a bit higher. I have not shown a chart on HVU, but it moves exactly the same as UVXY.

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  3. Hi SC

    Thanks for the update, question on the second chart with UVXY. It shows a target but label XIV, is this the upside target for UVXY? and then you plan to switchto XIV and ride (UVXY down to 10?)

    Thanks!

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    1. Yes, the green line is the upside target for UVXY. I plan to switch to XIV at that level and ride it to the moon!

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    2. SC a bit confused. Are you saying that you will switch from UVXY to XIV once UVXY reaches the green target level because you expect the markets to rally back up and take XIV with it?

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  4. TVIX is still not trading in tune with the VIX futures it is supposed to represent. Today it was down 14.8% versus 17.2% for UVXY. They should both be exactly the same. I am unable to caculate the upside target for TVIX due to this ongoing issue with premiums etc.

    Now, potentially TVIX could bubble and overshoot the target on a % basis. That is possible. The dynamics involved are unusual, and so it is difficult to comment on TVIX specifically due to it's current speculative nature.

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  5. you mentioned that the cycle analysis is only negative for Mon/Tuesday tho right?

    2 day decline? or...

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    1. It is negative this weekend and early next week. It is still mildly negative until near the 19th.

      Then, it turns very positive.

      It is not a perfect indicator for each day always, but I have found it works well for the general trend. A bottom for SPX around the 19th looks about right.

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  6. The way this market is swinging currently (and in combination with the VIX analysis) I think we are going to the max SPX downside target.

    We'll see next week.

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  7. Exactly beetle.

    No, I am not turning bullish for this year or anything crazy like that. I'll just put the bull costume on for a bit and ride the XIV at the green line.

    I have a big plan coming for SPX. Finally, with tweaking, I think I have it right.

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  8. looks to me like we're following this pattern on the SPX ladies and gentlmen... http://www.tradersdaytrading.com/images/three-peaks-domed-house-chart-pattern.png

    Basically we go down to SCs 1340 -1350 area.. then shoot backup to the highs.. then down again .. etc...

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  9. Sold UVXY at $17.75, back in XIV.

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  10. This is because according to my plan UVXY is heading down to test red support around $14.50 or so next.

    That is when I want to buy big!

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  11. Looks like SPX, XIV set to rally into close now.

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  12. SPX hit the pink fork support at 1373. That is an indication that the max fork downside target of 1344 is in play.

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    Replies
    1. First SPX can rally here to 1395-97.

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  13. thats a brave trade with europe so much down!!
    good luck....

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    Replies
    1. Fed speaks later. Likely that the market surges up around that time based on my charts.

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  14. Hi SC

    wondering the exit price of XIV your looking for in your forecast with this morning entry?


    Thanks!

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    1. The plan is to sell XIV once UVXY nears $14.50 and switch back to UVXY. I haven't calculated that price for XIV.

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  15. Also, will you be selling XIV by the close and back into UVXY regardless? Basically, what is your plan. Thanks for sharing SC.

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    1. The plan is to sell XIV once UVXY nears $14.50 and switch back to UVXY. I haven't calculated that price for XIV.

      I would have no problem holding XIV until Monday.

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  16. wait. if you are expecting Weekend/monday to be really negative, wouldnt you hold UVXY from now?...

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    1. Later today and Monday morning looks fine to me with mkts holding ok over the weekend, but later Monday/Tues I think the drop occurs.

      We're getting some fast swings.

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  17. SC, I think you could be right with Helicopter Ben perhaps going to signal to the markets that more QE is coming. Remember that would be in line with his more recent comments only for the dated comments from the FOMC to derail the market momentum.

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  18. What time Ben is going to talk?

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    1. started talking...." didn't discuss monetary? what does he means? so still keeping lower interest rate projection? hummmm....SC get ready for rally...LOL

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  19. Why Ben is not talking? I mean marketwatch is not updating anything after two lines...

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    1. he started at 1 PM and within 5 min. he is done....or that's what I thought...still don't see any update on marketwatch.

      Anybody watching live?

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    2. http://www.russellsage.org/rethinking-finance/bernanke Bernanke is still talking. Extremely boring.

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  20. Looks like big sell off is in store at end of the day now, since Ben didn't say anything.

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  21. Still have to wait for the Q & A periord....that is where the QE hint may come...

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  22. It would seem that markets are stalled, not sure which way to go!

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  23. I have Gold/Silver charts coming this weekend. I have a plan for them too.

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  24. I'm bullish for Silver to $33.50 next, and soon.

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  25. Hi SC,
    Is now a good time to buy a peck of silver or do you expect lower still ?
    thanks much

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  26. This is a good price for Silver but only for a move up to $33.50-75.

    My analysis on the weekend will show the real low finally due on April 23rd at $29.50.

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  27. Markets aren't rallying......oh what to do with my HVI!

    Not yet anyways...

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    1. Everything quiet. I'm pleased with the setup for XIV so will stay put.

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    2. SC, so if the market doesn't rally, doesn't change your approach for XIV? You think Monday will be a good day? Because soon after you are expecting an SPX plunge, why risk it with XIV?

      Unfortunately Bernake it appears didn't move the market to the upsdide like I had hoped, perhaps have to decide whether to sell and stay in cash for the weeked.

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    3. Timing not right for UVXY yet. Too early. I'm not paying over $14.70 for it.

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  28. I bought Silver for the anticipated $2 short term pop.

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  29. I'm confident that SPX and XIV rally Monday. It really is the only outcome given the analysis.

    Definitely, I am holding for the weekend.

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  30. still going to 1396 or that it now?

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  31. Yes, we can see 1396 or so Monday.

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  32. Stops just were cleaned out before gap up market Monday.

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  33. 1396 on monday?...

    thats a 2% rally and ALSO you expect weakness later Monday?...

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    Replies
    1. Monday looks like a strong up day, but also a top, drop from there.

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    2. Hi SC

      Can you please show us where you seeing a strong up monday and then a drop coming up? cause today's end of day decline didnt match up with your rally end of day target. Curious to know anything changed


      Thanks!

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    3. I'll show the chart this weekend, Monday looks strong. Most of the day was quiet today so that pushed out the timing until Monday. Same plan.

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  34. Definitely possible, particularly if the Chinese move on monetary policy. Just wish I wated until the end of the day to buy HVI.

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    1. Hi SS76

      curious to know where you from? notice you trade Canadian stock as well.

      And just saw you mention HVI, checked it the inverse of HVU basically, which is awesome new product that Canadian finally get, instead of trading HSU…


      Are you in HVI now?

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