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Wednesday, April 11, 2012

$VIX - Volatile April Update

The VIX spiked and has nearly reached the target outlined previously.  After settling down first, it'll surge higher again next week.

Daily Chart

63 comments:

  1. Hello SC,

    You did say (I guess last week) you work on Gold and Silver charts.
    When can we see PM charts and your latest analysis about Gold and Silver?

    Thank you for your efforts and kindness.
    Appreciated,
    RB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, coming soon for sure. Thank you.

      Delete
  2. SC, are you still expecting a lower low for silver this week ?
    Many thanks !!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Silver didn't quite make it lower yesterday, and still hovering here. It'll give it a little more time.

      Delete
  3. SPX stopped at my orange line 1375 this morning, now at the white line of support 1368.

    I think it'll move up now to 1378 or so.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi SC,
    Notice how USD, Gold, and Silver moving together today. What's up with that ?

    ReplyDelete
  5. On Friday silver will drop under $31. This drop will be explained by the speech of Bernanke.

    ReplyDelete
  6. It does seem that the USD could manage a small pop next few days.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi SC

    Are we still on target with weak wednesday, thursday and postive on friday?

    curious to know.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SPX can bounce a little more first, then weaken again. It should not get past 1380, then dip back into the 1360's imo.

      Delete
  8. Just a historical mention on the period of June 24 - Sept 04 2011,

    Dow 12043 (june 24) to 12719 (july 7) to 11139 (Sept 4) 7.5% drop / 12.4% from peak.

    USD 74.1 to 77.3 4.3% increase
    Silver 33.4 to 43.4 30% increase
    Gold 1475 to 1918 30% increase
    The 3 amigos all moved up together.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Correction:
    I used a weekly chart for USD values above. Actual values on daily chart for those specific USD dates, shows only a 75.2 to 75.9 rise. There were specific periods that moved together. The point was to see what happens while the dow crashes.

    ReplyDelete
  10. SPX feels really weak right now...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, agree. At the 1380 level mentioned yesterday and I think another test of near the 1357 low comes over next few days.

      Delete
  11. Out of XIV, and into UVXY at $18.60.

    ReplyDelete
  12. How long will you hold that SC? I bought HVU at $5.09.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Zig Zag, if this bottom holds and dollar breaks down your fractal may be the ticket AGAIN!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Guys,

    ZigZag has a dip on the map around April 12, small dip, I think that will go well with SC entry today.

    Take a look.

    Cheer

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That Dip was for S & P not HVU or UVXY....

      correct me if wrong.

      Delete
  15. I think the Chinese GDP data will disappoint and perhaps be the catalyst for a Friday/Monday drop...

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hi SC, Zigzag or anyone with knowledge can explain me below?

    What is the difference between XIV and UVXY/HVU?

    Thank you for taking time

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. XIV is the VIX futures 1x bear. UVXY is the VIX futures 2x bull.

      So basically XIV seeks to profit from a decrease in volatility (futures not the cash VIX directly).

      Delete
  17. Bomb at WTC?
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2-world-financial-center-area-evacuated-due-suspicious-package?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

    ReplyDelete
  18. I think the market will struggle for the next 2-3 days. A grind down - not too fast.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hi SC

    curious to know what ever happen to friday being positive? this aint happening anymore?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Overall the cycle analysis is weak today, only mildly positive tomorrow and quite negative over the weekend and Monday.

      So my take is that a small bounce could occur sometime tomorrow on the way down. Overall it is a negative trend until Tues.

      Delete
    2. Hi SC

      curious, we are getting newer high as we discuss further today. This doesnt change your outlook still?

      I know the day is still early, still almost half day left, but so far it seems pretty strong day, no?

      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. Bounced as expected yesterday, and now should retest the Tues low in coming days. Still the same plan.

      NDX has been making lower highs for the last 2 hours also.

      We're heading lower again imo.

      Delete
  20. Hi SC,
    In regards to silver/gold with dollar headed down :

    Are we there yet ?

    Or is this a head fake ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think Silver could head higher up to $33.50, but I still think it is a headfake.

      This is proving to be a slow process.

      Delete
    2. Hello SC,

      What should we expect for gold/silver rally?
      Can we buy gold with dry powder money or wait then buy when the correction comes?

      Do you expect any correction for PMs or bottom locked in?

      Thank you,
      RB

      Delete
    3. The bottom still is not in for Gold or Silver imo. So it is a waiting game for now.

      The charts are coming with time and price targets.

      Delete
  21. Markets rolling over, oil dropping.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      Could this be a fake roll over, before we go higher today?

      Do you see a chance in that


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. Things are pretty conclusive that we are heading lower imo.

      Delete
    3. Ya think? S&P heading higher???

      Delete
  22. Hi SC

    After this drop do you expect a big sharp bounce afterward within April?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  23. Maxed out my UVXY position at $17.80.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have an in depth plan for the month, and this time I am going to do it right!

      Delete
    2. I am satified with the position. Could place one at $17.

      Delete
    3. Target is still around $21.

      Delete
  24. Lower highs for NDX, also oil.

    ReplyDelete
  25. What a terrible HVU trade...gonna hold it but man, just a bad bad trade. Should have kept HVI.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Replies
    1. No, never had a hard stop in. I'm just going to hold it because I'm expecting another VIX spike soon anyways.

      Delete
  27. Lot of dumping is going right now in UVXY....so may be tomorrow will not see day light either...

    ReplyDelete
  28. hi SC

    what would a target for HVU be? relative to UVXY


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  29. Important update coming. BIG trade setup...

    ReplyDelete
  30. Do I need to be buying UVXY after hours at 16.30 ???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No. It should pop in the morning a little ($17's) so may be worthwhile, however, not part of the setup for the "BIG" trade.

      Delete
  31. update coming before tomorrow morning? ty

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Update will be later tonight, there will be plenty of time tomorrow to position as well.

      This is going to be great!

      Delete