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Thursday, May 3, 2012

$SPX - Update

The results of negative early May cycles are evident in the market.  The result has been continued chop rather than any serious breach of support though.  There is resistance around 1408, but a break above that level could result in another push higher.  

There are still weak spots in the cycle analysis in early May, but the middle part of May looks positive.  There are weak spots again later in May, and particularly June looks very negative.   

15min Chart
Posted by at

54 comments:

  1. StockboomMay 3, 2012 at 8:07 AM

    SC,

    Are you thinking of entry in UVXY today?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  2. MikeMay 3, 2012 at 8:26 AM

    Any ideas on silver/gold? Any more significant downside potential? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  3. SCMay 3, 2012 at 8:32 AM

    They can drift lower, but there isn't likely much downside for Gold/Silver imo. $1600 for Gold and $29.50 for Silver should hold.

    ReplyDelete
  4. stevesteve121May 3, 2012 at 9:20 AM

    what are your cycle analysis say about tmr for the jobs?

    and next week?

    ty!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMay 3, 2012 at 9:37 AM

      It looks mixed for tomorrow, weaker Monday. Follow through has been the issue. The dips have been minor.

      Delete
  5. stevesteve121May 3, 2012 at 10:23 AM

    thx. does all/most of next week look weak enough to take a short swing position or?
    ...

    ReplyDelete
  6. StockboomMay 3, 2012 at 10:44 AM

    sell off started?

    ReplyDelete
  7. SCMay 3, 2012 at 10:53 AM

    I'd like to see some more action, tough to say.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. sun_shineMay 4, 2012 at 7:46 AM

      Hey SC, do you think the slide has started going into next week?

      Delete
    2. SCMay 4, 2012 at 8:21 AM

      I'm not impressed with the VIX.

      Delete
  8. sun_shineMay 3, 2012 at 10:53 AM

    Looks like traders taking some off the table before the jobs number tomorrow. If the jobs number is a miss, all bets are off. If it beats, new highs for SPX.

    ReplyDelete
  9. joedMay 3, 2012 at 11:22 AM

    http://news.yahoo.com/supermoon-may-outshine-meteor-shower-weekend-201132286.html

    ReplyDelete
  10. SamiMay 3, 2012 at 11:34 AM

    JOED, are you long silver now?

    ReplyDelete
  11. joedMay 3, 2012 at 11:36 AM

    Sami

    Yep..........went long off my 5 min range! Stop underneath! joed

    ReplyDelete
  12. SamiMay 3, 2012 at 11:37 AM

    Joed, What is your upside target / time frame?

    ReplyDelete
  13. Gold_GerbMay 3, 2012 at 5:03 PM

    ZigZag, you out there?
    it's gonna have to be a helluva jobs number Friday, to make the 7th/8th rock as a new high.

    http://s7.postimage.org/7uifa58e3/backetst.png

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ZigZagMay 3, 2012 at 6:12 PM

      Hey GG,

      It doesn't have to be a new high and can be a few days off, similar to my late March high. As long as I get the direction correct I'm happy. Sure beats staring at the screen trying to scalp on a 1 min chart. lol!

      Delete
  14. StockboomMay 4, 2012 at 6:46 AM

    This is it? we all missed the perfect opportunity to short the market, waiting for S & P to touch 1425 and 1440...LOL..big players screwed us again..

    ReplyDelete
  15. AnonymousMay 4, 2012 at 7:25 AM

    Zig

    You still buying into this and holding longs.........where is your stop! gj

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ZigZagMay 4, 2012 at 8:42 AM

      Hi Gj,

      Yes, I'm still holding and adding long since the October cycle low. No stop.
      Waiting to see what happens around early June and we will likely see new highs by late September.

      Correlation peak is May 8th, but I have a shorter term cycle that hits around the 14th. I'll probably be buying today.

      Delete
    2. StevenMay 4, 2012 at 11:54 AM

      Zz:After the peak on May 8/14th,you mean we have a low on early June?

      Delete
  16. SamiMay 4, 2012 at 8:13 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  17. StockboomMay 4, 2012 at 8:14 AM

    SC,

    what after S & P broke below 1390, now it is 1326?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMay 4, 2012 at 8:31 AM

      We're seeing the results of my negative cycles. Yet the VIX isn't moving much.

      Delete
    2. StockboomMay 4, 2012 at 8:34 AM

      So you think market will rebound from here? or will see S & P 1326 first?

      Thanks

      Delete
    3. SCMay 4, 2012 at 8:43 AM

      I think it'll rebound.

      Delete
  18. StockboomMay 4, 2012 at 8:36 AM

    DOW and market is falling from cliff here....

    ReplyDelete
  19. SCMay 4, 2012 at 8:49 AM

    Sold UVXY at $14.74.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaMay 4, 2012 at 8:59 AM

      Hi SC

      you dont think monday will have a gap down?


      Thanks!

      Delete
  20. SCMay 4, 2012 at 9:06 AM

    I believe that the middle part of the month will present another better opportunity to short.

    ReplyDelete
  21. AnonymousMay 4, 2012 at 9:11 AM

    just a curious observation...does anyone believe a 80VIX number is ever possible again?? I mean '07,'08,'09, we witnessed record highs and record lows...things we had NEVER been a part of.now having lived throught those times and their recoveries, does fear not lessen when sudden price swings occur?? have we become numb to crash like sequences and not panic like the first time??? I think so...

    ReplyDelete
  22. AnonymousMay 4, 2012 at 9:14 AM

    Zig,

    Tx........one more? WHen would you decide your cycle broke? If lows come out of 4/10 as you commented they will not? Tx, youever had ulcers? lol gj

    ReplyDelete
  23. SamiMay 4, 2012 at 10:04 AM

    All Hail JOED!

    Keep up the good work !

    ReplyDelete
  24. SamiMay 4, 2012 at 11:45 AM

    HVU.TO = POS...

    VIX Up 10% yet the double long vix etf is up 7%.

    This makes 0 sense to me.

    ReplyDelete
  25. AnonymousMay 4, 2012 at 12:03 PM

    must be the canadian exchange rate...3%

    ReplyDelete
  26. stevesteve121May 4, 2012 at 12:49 PM

    how does the cycle strength look for next week SC?

    thx!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMay 4, 2012 at 12:53 PM

      I think we'll see a bounce early in the week.

      Delete
  27. SpudthorpeMay 4, 2012 at 12:49 PM

    Sami,

    It is NOT a double long VIX ETF. It is a double long VIX *FUTURES* ETF. It is perfectly possible for the forward VIX value to rise only 3.5% on a day when spot VIX rises 10%. In that case you would expect the double ETF to rise 7%.

    It's very important to understand the distinction between spot and forward values when trading VIX vehicles.

    ReplyDelete
  28. SantaMay 4, 2012 at 1:08 PM

    Hi SC

    can you do some kind of new chart, and show us what made you trigger your sell of UVXY? cause from not long ago you have a pretty high target for VIX and it was suggested in the very near term. Why the sudden sell, like is there something changed in your cycle work?

    Did you see a chance to get into XIV today?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMay 4, 2012 at 1:20 PM

      Decided to stay in cash for the weekend. Yes, charts coming. VIX futures did not follow through well today with the VIX. Basically I think the market should bounce soon so I am going to look for another entry. My targets are all the same but the timing looks like it is going to take longer.

      Delete
    2. SantaMay 4, 2012 at 1:22 PM

      Hi SC

      This bounce you seeing very soon, is it just going to be a weak bounce or going to 1420 ish +?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. SCMay 4, 2012 at 1:38 PM

      I'm going to review that some more.

      Delete
    4. SantaMay 4, 2012 at 1:40 PM

      Some how your cycle looks more and more like it on the same track as ZigZag forecast in May, if we do get this bounce before the dive.


      Thanks!

      Delete
    5. AnonymousMay 4, 2012 at 1:58 PM

      please understand how difficult this is to forecast people's sentiment world wide on a daily basis. It's not like there is one clear and defined answer for every question or possibility...that's why it's a forecast/prediction....harder than the weather dealing with people's moods...on mass Mr. SC does an OUTSTANDING work to follow mrkts. and predict future options. again how u trade is up to u . but don't expect to become a millionaire on the back of SC.leahandouts.learn how to fish and make yourself proud. and SC I'm still waiting for a little taste of that cycle stuff...Gann,astro,...u said price history which might as well be greek. thanks for all your patience and diligent posts informing every reader of what you are seeing. GREAT job!!

      Delete
  29. AfshaikhMay 5, 2012 at 9:37 AM

    where is the gold chart that's supposedly been coming for the past month ?

    ReplyDelete
  30. joedMay 5, 2012 at 4:05 PM

    Afshaikh

    Maybe you forgot to make your monthly payment?

    ReplyDelete
  31. TimerMay 5, 2012 at 7:23 PM

    Bradley Cowan is calling for a mega top already formed. Next Stop is May 2013 low.

    http://www.cycle-trader.com/index.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. joedMay 5, 2012 at 9:12 PM

      Timer

      I'll bet on that time frame being a top............In Gann's work 2013 is a "Panic year"! Best,
      joed

      Delete
    2. ChicagoMay 6, 2012 at 5:52 AM

      Joed, can you clarify what you mean? You too think May 2012 is a top or you expect 2013 to be a top?

      Delete
    3. joedMay 6, 2012 at 1:20 PM

      Chicago.........

      They are both tops...........but the 2013 will be a panic top year! joed

      Delete
  32. HousewifeMaggiMay 6, 2012 at 3:56 AM

    If May 2012 is a mega top, then 2012 becomes a panic year?Dont understand why Cowan makes it sounds like a very very mega top? Should it not be in 2013.

    ReplyDelete

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