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Thursday, May 3, 2012

$SPX - Update

The results of negative early May cycles are evident in the market.  The result has been continued chop rather than any serious breach of support though.  There is resistance around 1408, but a break above that level could result in another push higher.  

There are still weak spots in the cycle analysis in early May, but the middle part of May looks positive.  There are weak spots again later in May, and particularly June looks very negative.   

15min Chart

54 comments:

  1. SC,

    Are you thinking of entry in UVXY today?

    Thanks

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  2. Any ideas on silver/gold? Any more significant downside potential? Thanks.

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  3. They can drift lower, but there isn't likely much downside for Gold/Silver imo. $1600 for Gold and $29.50 for Silver should hold.

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  4. what are your cycle analysis say about tmr for the jobs?

    and next week?

    ty!

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    Replies
    1. It looks mixed for tomorrow, weaker Monday. Follow through has been the issue. The dips have been minor.

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  5. thx. does all/most of next week look weak enough to take a short swing position or?
    ...

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  6. I'd like to see some more action, tough to say.

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    Replies
    1. Hey SC, do you think the slide has started going into next week?

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    2. I'm not impressed with the VIX.

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  7. Looks like traders taking some off the table before the jobs number tomorrow. If the jobs number is a miss, all bets are off. If it beats, new highs for SPX.

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  8. http://news.yahoo.com/supermoon-may-outshine-meteor-shower-weekend-201132286.html

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  9. JOED, are you long silver now?

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  10. Sami

    Yep..........went long off my 5 min range! Stop underneath! joed

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  11. Joed, What is your upside target / time frame?

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  12. ZigZag, you out there?
    it's gonna have to be a helluva jobs number Friday, to make the 7th/8th rock as a new high.

    http://s7.postimage.org/7uifa58e3/backetst.png

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    Replies
    1. Hey GG,

      It doesn't have to be a new high and can be a few days off, similar to my late March high. As long as I get the direction correct I'm happy. Sure beats staring at the screen trying to scalp on a 1 min chart. lol!

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  13. This is it? we all missed the perfect opportunity to short the market, waiting for S & P to touch 1425 and 1440...LOL..big players screwed us again..

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  14. Zig

    You still buying into this and holding longs.........where is your stop! gj

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    Replies
    1. Hi Gj,

      Yes, I'm still holding and adding long since the October cycle low. No stop.
      Waiting to see what happens around early June and we will likely see new highs by late September.

      Correlation peak is May 8th, but I have a shorter term cycle that hits around the 14th. I'll probably be buying today.

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    2. Zz:After the peak on May 8/14th,you mean we have a low on early June?

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  15. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  16. SC,

    what after S & P broke below 1390, now it is 1326?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. We're seeing the results of my negative cycles. Yet the VIX isn't moving much.

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    2. So you think market will rebound from here? or will see S & P 1326 first?

      Thanks

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    3. I think it'll rebound.

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  17. DOW and market is falling from cliff here....

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  18. Replies
    1. Hi SC

      you dont think monday will have a gap down?


      Thanks!

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  19. I believe that the middle part of the month will present another better opportunity to short.

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    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      will be going XIV then?


      Thanks!

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    2. I'm considering that.

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  20. just a curious observation...does anyone believe a 80VIX number is ever possible again?? I mean '07,'08,'09, we witnessed record highs and record lows...things we had NEVER been a part of.now having lived throught those times and their recoveries, does fear not lessen when sudden price swings occur?? have we become numb to crash like sequences and not panic like the first time??? I think so...

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  21. Zig,

    Tx........one more? WHen would you decide your cycle broke? If lows come out of 4/10 as you commented they will not? Tx, youever had ulcers? lol gj

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  22. All Hail JOED!

    Keep up the good work !

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  23. HVU.TO = POS...

    VIX Up 10% yet the double long vix etf is up 7%.

    This makes 0 sense to me.

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  24. must be the canadian exchange rate...3%

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  25. how does the cycle strength look for next week SC?

    thx!

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    Replies
    1. I think we'll see a bounce early in the week.

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  26. Sami,

    It is NOT a double long VIX ETF. It is a double long VIX *FUTURES* ETF. It is perfectly possible for the forward VIX value to rise only 3.5% on a day when spot VIX rises 10%. In that case you would expect the double ETF to rise 7%.

    It's very important to understand the distinction between spot and forward values when trading VIX vehicles.

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  27. Hi SC

    can you do some kind of new chart, and show us what made you trigger your sell of UVXY? cause from not long ago you have a pretty high target for VIX and it was suggested in the very near term. Why the sudden sell, like is there something changed in your cycle work?

    Did you see a chance to get into XIV today?

    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Decided to stay in cash for the weekend. Yes, charts coming. VIX futures did not follow through well today with the VIX. Basically I think the market should bounce soon so I am going to look for another entry. My targets are all the same but the timing looks like it is going to take longer.

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    2. Hi SC

      This bounce you seeing very soon, is it just going to be a weak bounce or going to 1420 ish +?


      Thanks!

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    3. I'm going to review that some more.

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    4. Some how your cycle looks more and more like it on the same track as ZigZag forecast in May, if we do get this bounce before the dive.


      Thanks!

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    5. please understand how difficult this is to forecast people's sentiment world wide on a daily basis. It's not like there is one clear and defined answer for every question or possibility...that's why it's a forecast/prediction....harder than the weather dealing with people's moods...on mass Mr. SC does an OUTSTANDING work to follow mrkts. and predict future options. again how u trade is up to u . but don't expect to become a millionaire on the back of SC.leahandouts.learn how to fish and make yourself proud. and SC I'm still waiting for a little taste of that cycle stuff...Gann,astro,...u said price history which might as well be greek. thanks for all your patience and diligent posts informing every reader of what you are seeing. GREAT job!!

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  28. where is the gold chart that's supposedly been coming for the past month ?

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  29. Afshaikh

    Maybe you forgot to make your monthly payment?

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  30. Bradley Cowan is calling for a mega top already formed. Next Stop is May 2013 low.

    http://www.cycle-trader.com/index.html

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    Replies
    1. Timer

      I'll bet on that time frame being a top............In Gann's work 2013 is a "Panic year"! Best,
      joed

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    2. Joed, can you clarify what you mean? You too think May 2012 is a top or you expect 2013 to be a top?

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    3. Chicago.........

      They are both tops...........but the 2013 will be a panic top year! joed

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  31. If May 2012 is a mega top, then 2012 becomes a panic year?Dont understand why Cowan makes it sounds like a very very mega top? Should it not be in 2013.

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