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Tuesday, April 17, 2012

$SPX - Big Bounce Update

SPX rocketed higher, and today reached the turquoise target exactly.  However, the timing of events suggests that the market still has higher to go.  The red fork line is an appropriate target on this big bounce. 

There is support at the orange midfork so even if it dips a little, the rally should extend up to reach the red fork target in coming days.

A bear flag is forming as represented with the white lines.

15min Chart
 

95 comments:

  1. GREAT CALL!! I hung in there after yesterday believing in you and it $$$ off. I still am interested in your system but understand all your efforts involved. Bradley 4-23...does it become a high or low?? if low, it will be a swift and sudden plunge...50 SNP points is BIG!!
    keep it up !!

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    Replies
    1. Thank you, that was fun. We're just getting started. The moves are going to increase in size in May and June. I have some nice charts coming up.

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  2. so-so call. you were a day early!
    not good enough!
    ;-)

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    Replies
    1. Lol, it was definitely a slow start.

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  3. Originally I was thinking April 23rd was a candidate for the low. However, things have been slower. My current thinking is that the top should be in this week. Around the 23rd should be the start of the plunge.

    The bottom looks like it may be nearer to the end of April.

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  4. Hello SC...everything seems on track.

    *I will be watching the 15min cycle tomorrow open..looking to baby gap up...and then black candles..then I will fire ze missiles.
    -

    It does look like 1340 sometime in the next wave, and that'll for a nice good gain. I'm trying to keep open mind on what happens after that. Plenty of people better than me suggest 'new highs' after such a 1340 low are viable.

    However, the big weekly and monthly cycles say... NO !

    Good wishes

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  5. SC,
    Looks like IMO gold is channeling to 1600 and silver to 29.5-30.
    I'm just not seeing 34 (or even 32) before 29.5-30 range and with Spain bond sale tonight and USD headed up and in a 16 yr coil pattern up, who knows. I am tryinh very hard though and hanging in there.
    Still thinking 34 before 30 before 38 before 7 ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Short term the pop and drop still seems most likely. The longer term targets come from my large Silver pattern, and I have confidence in those.

      The next major high for Silver and Gold is in June from my work. Silver should be $38-39 at that time.

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    2. Thanks for all the help/charts, just needed a confidence boost this AM.

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  6. Wow, this is impressive SC. Yesterday you said a morning dip followed by a recovery and perhaps new highs......looking very likely now. Good job, recognition where its due.

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  7. I figured the dip was likely this morning because it closed right at the turquoise resistancenyesterday. The dip found support at the orange line this morning. So now we could see SPX inch a little higher.

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  8. I suspect a strong close today, but weak open tomorrow. This is from my cycle analysis. Though, I'm not expecting anything dramatic. The rest of the week could be fairly quiet.

    Next week should be wild though.

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  9. Hi SC

    you plan to sell your XIV end of day today? and start to get into UVXY for next week?


    Thanks!

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  10. SC

    I dont trade silver dont know much information about silver
    what do i follow for trading silver ? does silver following gold ?

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  11. Silver is fun to trade when it moves lol. Lately it has been hovering, but it should start to heat up soon.

    Keep a close eye on Gold for sure. Gold was stronger off the last low. My target is $2,050 for Gold in June. Gold will be a strong performer imo.

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  12. between gold and ETFs ( Hgu & HGD ) i though those two ETFs are following gold like if gold goes up so HGU shoul be up but it went opposite way many times gold went up and HGU dropped .
    my question is : does HGU & HGD following exactly move of gold ?
    same apply for HZU & HZD for silver ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I Think HGU and HGD follow miners, not Gold itself.

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    2. Thanks for your information

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    3. hbu and hbd for gold are the same as hzuand hzd for silver

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  13. thanks for the information guys :)

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  14. Interesting....the SPX is starting to move towards green, but VIX futures are rising....

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    Replies
    1. Does this imply the fear in building up?

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  15. Yes, looking like fear is starting to build up.....usually when this happens, it can go parabolic. With the spanish debt sale tonight and yields dropping, I don't think there will be good demand and this will send the markets into a tailspin I'm thinking....

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  16. Feels like the bottom is about to fall out of the market...

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  17. come on silver.. move .. jeesh

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  18. Hi SC

    Do you still see strength going into the afternoon with Spx or VIX? Curious to know if you still following your basic plan to sell xiv in the afternoon now that we been dropping all morning?




    Thanks!

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  19. I think the markets will claw back up so I am sitting tight.

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  20. Really SC? I mean, the Spanish bond auction tonight has maturities that fall outside of the LTRO.....that is quite significant. With yields dropping, I think its a set up to kill demand and shock the market.

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  21. I just think the market can hang in there this week, and drop next week. It seems too early for a significant turn down to me. Let's see how it shapes up later today.

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  22. Hi SC

    SnP seems to be drifting lower, aint clawing back higher at all. If we dont claw back today, do you see us claw back tomorrow with this delay?

    think you mention tomorrow morning weakness, so not sure how that will play out if we delay today with this claw back.


    Thanks!

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  23. It's quiet so far as we hover at the orange support. From my point of view the market is just absorbing the gains from yesterday. I think we'll carve out a top over a few days so there should be some time to work with.

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  24. Hi SC

    not sure about this carve out the top over a few days on that chart look like, but looking at it since it drop to the orange line today, doesnt that already show a carve top around 1390 ish? confused.


    Thanks!

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  25. SILVER LONG ABOOOOAAARDD.... Giddeeeeeappp.. we go over 31.70 and make that suppoer.. next stop 32.60

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  26. I have Dow Jones chart as of today the support @13020 if it break will go down more if not will go back up . It looks like will go back up from here .

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  27. Yes, let's see that Silver finally pop. Fire up the rockets, and take it up to the moon! Hopefully it won't fizzle like that NK rocket lol...

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  28. NDX looks strong on this last push. If SPX can break above 1390 - the turquoise resistance, then there is room to run.

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    Replies
    1. last hour left almost...whatever juice we got...better use it now...tomorrow is doom day lol

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  29. what do you mean doom day ?

    :)

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  30. i dont have SPX chart but i m timing by my Dow Jones chart if Dow Jone go up SPX will following .

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  31. hi SC

    wondering your take on today's end of day snp action and tomorrow, a day before friday and some hours before the spain auction?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. All pretty quiet. Still leaning towards upside.

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  32. Also, first round of voting in the French elections tomorrow.....Sarkozy will not even making to the second round and with Hollande almost certain to win, she has already stated that she will look to renegotiate any treaties France has signed.....this is going to get ugly real fast, starting tonight with the Spanish bond auction of 10yr notes, which will mature outside of the LTRO.

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  33. sorry, first round of voting is on April 21st...

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  34. SC, until gold turns silver wont do much.

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  35. you know the "new" old saying??? sideways means up!!

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  36. S&P appears as if it may sell off into the close...

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  37. SC, can you share what you see for silver tomorrow and friday ?
    Thanks !!

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    Replies
    1. Well it's been slow but Silver should rally imo. I see Gold is looking better this morning.

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  38. Gold heading into an important low

    http://change-in-trend.blogspot.com/

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  39. SC, thoughts for S&P today? my negative spanish scenario didn't pan out, but looks like other bad news will at least offset.....would you bail on HVU this AM and buy back tomorrow?

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    Replies
    1. Still seems the market has room to rally for a day or two.

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  40. Ok, did that at $4.50....what is the target you see for HVU before the next leg up? I think you mentioned $3.92 however Destiny here projects $3.50.

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    Replies
    1. $3.80 or so is a target. Let's see how things develop next, and can fine tune.

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  41. SS76

    I target HVU @ 3.50 with the condidtion SPX must hit 1420 and Vix in ( Foxe-pro.com) must down to 16 still a prediction .
    you want to make sure it 's on the right track or not need SC to confirm us how high SPX will heading to .

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  42. Hi SC

    The bounce you looking for seems further and further away with today's bad number, we dropped like a rock. Are we still on track with your forecast? anything changed? Or this is a bear trap you seeing?


    Thanks!

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  43. The market is looking feeble. It tried to break the turquoise line 3 times and was not able to do it. It looks like it is going to try again soon.

    I'll likely go short later today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      understand you likely to go short later today, but how about selling your long, are you going to sell your XIV today?

      As well, you dont see your big bounce anymore in snp in the near term?


      Thanks!

      Delete
  44. There is a good chance the bottom is in for UVXY at $15.50 based on this morning's trading. The market just looks too tired.

    However, SPX is bouncing now. I may make the switch around $15.75 for UVXY.

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    Replies
    1. what would be the equivalent level for HVU? thx

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    2. $15.25 is roughly $4.10.

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  45. Hi SC,

    What about Silver?
    If you can share what you expect for PMs until 23-24.April, I will appreciate you.

    Thanks,
    RB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'll stick with $34 for Silver.

      Delete
  46. Hi SC

    Holy Crap, bear trap

    Are we back on target again lol 3.8 HVU? and under 15$ uvxy?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  47. so SC, you see the SPX going to close to 1400 but retreating back to 1340 before reaching 1430 - 1450?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, that's right. At least a double bottom at 1355. Then, 1460 approx. in May.

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  48. SPX breaking above the resistance now so I will have a little more patience. $14.90 may be about max.

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  49. The red fork target is 1398 SPX. That may be about it for the rally.

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  50. My plan is SPX rally into close today. Then quiet tomorrow, but may start to slide a little. That sets up a Mon/Tues plunge.

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  51. guess we all jumping ship this afternoon then lol. big wall at 1390...dont know if we will break it

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  52. I think S&P options expire tomorrow....how might that affect the market? Thoughts anyone?

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  53. What does the red fork represent, technically?

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    Replies
    1. It is a large fork resistance that goes way back. It should be a decent target in this case.

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  54. DOW/CRUDE

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/208/dows.jpg/

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/841/crude.jpg/

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  55. Although I get the feeling VIX futures are going to rise, the fact that they are not green today is telling in that there still isn't much fear in the market....I think SC is right that come Monday that will change, as the thought of Hollande potentially scuttling agreements already made could cause havoc with the Euro. I would also think that Frances credit rating will again come under scrutiny because of all this...

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  56. Hi SC

    Do you still see us rally into close today?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  57. SC, I think it will be quite difficult for silver to reach $34 before the end of the week as you seems to strongly believe...

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    Replies
    1. Things are slow - it could take until early next week.

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  58. Burning up the time with all of this chop. Rally into the close tomorrow may be the most likely.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      So you dont expect to switch your XIV to UVXY end of day anymore?


      Thanks!

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    2. May be tomorrow instead.

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  59. Well, bought HVU at $4.31 and sold it at $4.49, then bough HVI at $9.05.....should have waited since the trend seemed to be pressured up. However this market is doing weird things, so today down, tomorrow could be a bumper day.

    Vix future still not properly reflecting the drop in the S&P, which means that not many believe in this "sell off".

    Will sell HVI tomorrow and switch back to HVU.

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  60. Hi SC

    the entire twitter community is bearish now...you sure you dont want to exit now?


    Thanks!

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  61. Weak but we are also now at the white support for SPX.

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  62. Hi SC

    You dont see that white support being broken just now?


    Thanks!

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  63. SC, you feel like this is the double dip move to 1355 you've been looking for prior to continuing bull run?

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  64. Still need to give it some time to see. This may be just a another whipsaw.

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  65. Hi SC

    Base on today's close and the current future price, any change to your forecast now? such as that huge bearish rising wedge broken in snp today as well. Basically is bounce over?
    And right now you just looking for another quick bounce to get out, and if no bounce you may also get out as well tomorrow?

    Thanks!

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  66. o.k. last leg up 1365.38 to 1392.76 = 27.38 x 78% retrace = 21.36 minus from 1392.76 = 1371.4....relax folks. Also interesting...anyone notice SPX huorly pattern from 3-6 thru 3-29??? big brother to the pattern now 4-10 thru today?? almost the same point difference between first and second lows...I think one 5 pts. other 6 pts. cool huh?? let's see if lil' bro matches big bro next leg up...

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  67. How much longer can the world go on ignoring this???????

    My guess is that European markets will begin falling hard very soon and then the US market will follow.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$IBEX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p90229274878

    ReplyDelete