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Sunday, April 15, 2012

Silver - About to Become Volatile

Silver should bounce strongly early this week to near $34 for the Silver futures.  However, Silver should then plunge along with SPX afterwards.  A final low target is approximately $30 for the Silver futures. 

In terms of timing that low may occur at the soonest April 19-20th, and the low should be in place no later than April 23rd. 

60min Chart

107 comments:

  1. I love this chart SC!

    Good job!

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    Replies
    1. Thank you.

      Silver has been relatively quiet lately, but is about to get much more interesting with large moves coming soon.

      Delete
  2. I know your looking for an up day tomorrow.. BUT what if we head lower toward 1340 before run up then you miss entire move due to trying to time market .. you expct a plunge you should be short and get shorter if we rally

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  3. CME has issued a notice regarding Decrease in Silver margins effective after the closing of business on Monday. Maybe we get to see your uptarget on this news.

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  4. Thanks for the chart !
    Love to see silver at 34 this week as I would take just 32.5 before seeing 30 to be very happy.
    Are you thinking USD/Silver moving up together before the Spain bond buying debacle set for early Thursday...

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    Replies
    1. I'm faily confident this should happen. I also agree it could take a couple days.

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  5. SC do you think your buy in target in the 14's for UVXY is very optimistic. It looks to be forming a bullish flag and currently the Naz/SPX is reversing on AAPL

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  6. Market is dipping....SC you still holding XIV? Unsure when to dump HVI...

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  7. My plan is switch out of XIV when UVXY is around $15, and UVXY could bottom around $14.50.

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  8. Strange, Europe still up sharply with the SPX struggling now...

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    Replies
    1. Apple is weighing on the markets today, specially Nasdaq which down over 1%

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  9. It is important that 1365 holds for SPX. That'll be my stop.

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  10. Looking like that will happen SC. Will you hold XIV overnight if 1365 holds?

    Also, HVU is now almost fully tracking May futures, which could come down much harder if there is a strong move up, making your targets realistic for UVXY/HVU

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    Replies
    1. I would hold this position as long as 1365 holds today.

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  11. The market is begining to look really vulnerable to me. We could get a really big down day very soon.

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  12. FOMC speaking at noon....perhaps they will say something to drive the markets higher or lower? Guessing higher given the recent economic data...

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  13. Hi SC

    Do you happen to have a stop in mind for your UVXY as well? Understand your stop for snp is 1365, but aren’t sure how that translate to UVXY.


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Hovering right now. I would say for SPX if it can move over 1375, then my big bounce scenario is in play. Break 1365 and mkt heads lower.

      For XIV I would use the $10.20 low today as a stop. Break that and I'll look to position in UVXY.

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  14. Good idea to be fairly cautious with longs. Bounce or not first, my work shows the market heading lower over the next week.

    NDX is indicating that as well with the lower low today.

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    Replies
    1. Bounce now, but yes, heading lower this week. April 23rd is the low candidate.

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  15. i think 1380 was the bounce.

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    Replies
    1. That is possible. It was a decent bounce though it fizzled quickly also.

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  16. Hi MM111

    why would you be out long at the low of the day so far?

    are you seeing further weakness in the afternoon?

    Thanks!

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  17. Hi ZigZag

    not sure if you are around, you still seeing us run higher now into early May from your forecase, or things changed?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Hi InvestBB,

      No change in the forecast. They're testing the 4/10 low and I'm expecting this week to be up.

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  18. It's the way it's been hitting that 1365 several times.

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  19. SC, are you still bullish on silver in the very short term ?

    Thanks !

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    Replies
    1. Everything sort of on the fence here hovering. As long as this level holds, then would be still bullish Silver short term.

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  20. Hi SC

    we are like 1366 pretty close to your 1365 stop...are you sweating yet?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Watching closely, but it's slow.

      Delete
  21. Hi SC,

    What level you consider by saying "As long as this level holds, then would be still bullish Silver short term." ?

    I mean when (what price level should be broken down) we can say your short time projection is dead and we can expect more downside?

    Thanks,
    RB

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    Replies
    1. For Silver that level would be $31.

      Everything is holding well so I still think my plan is intact, and we'll see the push higher.

      Delete
  22. A little soft this morning, but firming up since then. The case is looking strong for the bounce scenario for markets.

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    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      Question about think you mention today is the bounce day in snp, if we don’t bounce during the rest of the today. Will you be exiting your UVXY and not hold the position overnight? Since your forecast for the rest of the week is bearish?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. I'm in XIV and continue to believe the market is going to press higher. So I will stay put. It looks like we are going to bounce early in the week and drop later in the week.

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  23. Sorry, can you remind me where you see the top tomorrow? 1395?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, should be around that price.

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  24. I sold XIV. Don't have a good feeling tonight...bought HVU instead.

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  25. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    Replies
    1. he is long XIV.. NOT uvxy read his posts

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  26. just when everybody believes the market will tank, MM's gun it trapping shorts causing coverage creating a pop out of nothing more than fearful shorts scurrying to buy in. then while their holding those shares, then it tanks.seen it too many times.if everyone was looking for a drop, nobody would be buying causing calamity in short order.buyers needed to hold the bag....we go up

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  27. where's my big SPX bounce?
    I want my refund!

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    Replies
    1. You must have blinked during the first 10 min and missed it lol. Strong open, but sure fizzled quick.

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  28. Bounced as expected

    http://change-in-trend.blogspot.com/

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  29. Should have kept HVI....darn.

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  30. SC, what do you think....sell HVU and rebuy later today? Its going to gap down quite a bit which makes me think I should just hold it.

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    Replies
    1. "sell HVU and rebuy later today?" This is what I would do if I was holding it. This should be a gap and go for the market. UVXY etc still have downside imo.

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    2. That is my thought also.....however a replay of yesterday could also happen where HVU gaps down at the open and closes near the high.....Apple is still falling and could weigh...

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    3. I think the market has momentum to carry higher today.

      UVXY could go as low as $14.50 but that is a maximum, and my target is still $28 for April.

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    4. It just doesn't feel right SC.

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    5. Just feels like this is a big bull trap. Ok, enought about my "feelings", your analysis is likely much better, lol.

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    6. You are right, yes, it is a bulltrap. It still has some room to run though. The big spike on the VIX is still to come in April.

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  31. SPX should reach 1390-95 on this bounce.

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  32. Oil surging, let's see if Silver can wake up...

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  33. Decided to hold, placed a stop at HVU $4.41

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    Replies
    1. Yesterday Vix went up because contango rolled in it always fill the gap back down within a week . Vix will gap down to 18 or below . My target for HVU @ 3.50 when Vix fill gap down .

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  34. Hi SC

    we pretty close to your target of 1390 now...like just 10 points away, would you consider selling your XIV now and buy UVXY? lock in the profit in case we dont head to 1390, or you pretty confident that 1390 is the minimum target, so you going to hold till then no matter what happen?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. I'm holding long. Pretty sure this market is going higher.

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  35. Is silver likely to take off today ?
    Thanks SC !!

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  36. I would think Silver should pick up the pace here. It's been so finicky lately. Whenever Silver goes flat (as it has been lately) it is time to pay attention for larger moves.

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  37. As soon as Jaytard thinks that 3 of C plunge is gonna happen today, the market takes off, SPX +14 right now. Nice one Jay. Don't leave your day job as a sales dude.

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  38. SC, do you plan to do the switch from XIV to UVXY tomorrow or at day end today as it looks like the market will be overbought today.

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  39. Tomorrow most likely I'll make the switch. My big bounce started a day later so tomorrow looks best for a high.

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  40. SC 1387 now...just 3 points away...today is a big bounce...you have balls of steel if you hold till tomorrow and expect to go higher if your target is 1390 ish.

    I am think of letting go my XIV to lock in some profit.

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    Replies
    1. 1395 SPX or even a little better is realistic. Still a ways to go imo. UVXY still another $1.50 or so downside to $14.25-50.

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  41. I stopped out at $4.42 actually, so I'll just wait it out now...

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  42. Vix will back down to 18 in nearterm not the end of the day if you wait alittle longer you will get cheaper price of HVU . IMO

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    1. Vix, is at like 17.81 now. you think it will go lower than that Destiny?

      Thanks!

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  43. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  44. SC, you said that when the SPX hits your target of 1390 - 1395 (assuming the upper target), that you would sell XIV...it is possible that the SPX goes that high and UVXY doesn't make it down to your target....how would you handle that? Perhaps 1395 will happen today given where it has stalled right now, looking mighty likely. Would you consider UVXY at that point, or will you wait?

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    Replies
    1. Good point, I would likely switch out of XIV if SPX hit 1395. The VIX futures typically do not line up exactly with SPX.

      I won't be chasing after a top tick in XIV. I may even sit in cash until I'm satified UVXY is close to a bottom. Somewhere around $14.50 looks about right though give or take. Often I scale into UVXY.

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    2. SC

      SPX shortterm pull back might aplly . What is your opions on long term ? SPX will heading to 1420 ? Hopefully i m not reading wrong in stockchart :)

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    3. My plan is for SPX to stall out around 1395 roughly, then plunge again to 1355-1342 max.

      After that, I do see another strong run to 1460 in May. That is my high target for the year. The bear market after that is going to be nasty. I have a target in mind for that low as well.

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    4. SC

      Thanks for the reply . By the way , your charts very impress i can read the TA charts but can't draw them :)

      Delete
  45. cbear2

    DA YA TINK!!!! HAHAHAHAHAH! I like the way he posts multiple cycles after the fact and the blows smoke! hahahahah Can't blame him though, hes LAME! lol He has to hold his FAMOUS VPN togehter.......imagine hanging on to a car saleman!! hahahahah! gj

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  46. congrats SC, so far your trade is playing very well!!

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  47. SC,

    Why silver is not moving?

    will silver move once S & P start falling? kind of odd...

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Still sluggish, but you know how Silver is. Slow right now, but it can spike out of the blue.

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  48. Replies
    1. Ya, credit where credit is due. Hit this one right on.

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  49. Hi SC

    we hit 1391 just second ago. 1395 is like hair away soon. you holding your UVXY like your firt born still? lol


    Thanks!

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  50. Great work.
    I'm out at 1391-2
    I think you are right and may go a bit more but such a rip so far, going to start scaling in for shorts now.

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  51. 1395-97 SPX somewhere around there seems likely. I think we'll spend a few days carving out a rounded top. This will be detrimental to the VIX. So that is why I'll just sit tight with my position for a bit longer.

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    Replies
    1. sitting in the same room as you SC, just this is testing patient. lol

      what you think of TVIX nowaday?

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    2. Hmmmm, few days? You don't see the big drop this week any longer then?

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    3. TVIX still is not in tune with the VIX futures. Potentially, it could outperform UVXY if the premium grows. It is speculative though, and that makes it difficult for me to chart properly with targets etc.

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  52. Spain is selling 10yr debt on Thursday, I think that will be the catalyst for the big drop which is why I thought your original correction scenario this week made a lot of sense...

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    Replies
    1. i 'm expecting a pull back either EOD or tomorrow before market grind higher .

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    2. Hi Destiny

      how big of a pull you expecting?


      Thanks!

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    3. Destiny, curious also what your SPX expectations are. Also, in terms of the VIX futures which at present are at 19.82, where do you see that ending up today and bottoming out tomorrow?

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    4. shorterm pull back next section or two target for long term Hvu bottom @ 3.50 if SPX go to 1420 vix (foxe-pro) be @16 for sure Hvu will be 3.50

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  53. My big bounce plan worked well but the timing has been slower. So at least for the next day or two I think we hold up on SPX fairly well. I believe it'll take some time up here to play out.

    Once everyone figures the bull is back, then surprise, the bottom falls out again.

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  54. SC could you update your gold chart and outlook ?

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  55. Yes, will do an update for Gold. Thanks.

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  56. From the strength I think 1395 is not going to be top at all.

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    Replies
    1. Sami, you saying short or long term? The SPX has done this now a few times in the last 3 weeks, big down days and big up days....longer term like SC, I think this market is topping at 1450 in May or somewhere there....but short term the top may well be 1395 this week with a correction next before the higher leg....correction to 1340 as SC suggested.

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  57. well there is a gap up on the ES futures on the hourly around the 1357 area.. That normally gets closed... on the futures market that is.. within a short matter of time...

    So All logic says we will test the lows we put in a few days ago again at the lease.. but hell who knows.. I am short tho couple of contracts for a quick play back down to the 200sma around 1375 area.. we'll see if we get down there

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  58. Hi SC

    Do you see a down day tomorrow with SnP in your forecast now?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. SPX could rise a little more tomorrow even if it dips a touch in the morning.

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    2. SC

      By the time this bull run finish SPX 1420 is still in the pictures IMO . Of course , there will be some pull back .

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    3. SC

      Can you update new SPX chart ?

      Thanks

      Delete