VIX is king in this market. Volatility, as seen on the chart, has been trending up for 5 years!!! The biggest moves are yet to come. For now though VIX is testing the long term trendline. It may underthrow the trendline slightly before the next pop. Weekly
So yes in fact VIX is close to the trendline near 16. VIX may undercut the line slightly here.
ReplyDeleteAlso, how do you account for CB’s using SVIX to crush volatility?
DeleteThey been doing it like crazy since Oct and even worse in March! Vix should be 50 instead of 16
What we can see from the chart is that we're in a relatively low volatility period at the moment. However over 5 years we can see that volatility trends are rising and we can expect that the largest volatility is ahead.
DeleteSc,
ReplyDeleteGood time to enter UVXY or will it hit $2?
Surprisingly no R/S yet, which usually happens when it breaks $5
It's early. Timing - we may have to wait until after the Covid public emergency ends May 11th.
DeleteNot sure I follow. What does end of Covid emergency have to do with VIX?
DeleteUS debt ceiling default risk would have more impact on volatility, imho.
Markets having a relief rally as the emergency ends.
DeleteAgree that default fears are probably the next volatility event.
ReplyDelete"A default on our debt would trigger an economic and financial catastrophe,” Yellen warned.
ReplyDeleteTreasury General Account will be empty in May at current burn rate $50B/week
ReplyDeleteYellen has said June.
DeleteWe should hear more estimates soon. They are quickly running out of funds in any case, and this time there is no appetite to raise the ceiling.
VVIX +15% for the week
ReplyDeleteVIX -2%
Hmm a default would be bearish for Oil
ReplyDeleteOdds of a default is probably 0 no ?
ReplyDeleteThis is what is interesting.
DeleteMost people assume no.
Yet Janet Yellen is the head of the Treasury. She is warning again today about default and she is the person who knows.
Odds of US default at 17%.
DeleteCheck out the U.S 1yr Sovereign credit default swap (just hit at a record high).
This is the cost of insuring U.S Treasury bonds against the risk of default.
As it stands now the U.S has a default risk higher than China.
Do I think they actually will default? No...but there may be some credit downgrades while they dither
sc,
ReplyDeleteIs this the top or too early to tell SPX 4150 seems to be resistance and the fact that Potus starts his campaign for re-election, or is this a one drop?
Pullback for a couple weeks here and then up into June. All part of a topping process.
DeleteJune is the timing to watch.
ReplyDelete"Yellen told lawmakers in January the government could pay its bills only through early June without increasing the limit, which the government hit in January."
They seem to have a deal already....
ReplyDeleteYes it passed the House. Problem is it won’t pass the Senate. Senate will send it back to the House. Biden doesn’t like it either.
DeleteThis is the stand-off.
Do the opposite of what they tell u
ReplyDeleteAnother imminent bank failure...VIX below 16
ReplyDeleteClown world
Carolina, ¿que vehÃculo de inversión comprarÃas?. Muchas gracias desde España por tus comentarios!
ReplyDeleteSc... vix now in the 15s...
ReplyDeleteDo you think market topped ?
I'm reviewing now Sammy
Delete"The U.S. could hit the debt ceiling by June 1, much sooner than expected, Yellen warns"
ReplyDeleteBiden now wants to negotiate the “non negotiable” debt ceiling deal....lmao
ReplyDeleteHahaha Biden
DeleteCommander in Chief lol
DeleteEvery time I see Biden it reminds me of the movie “Dave” where a body double poses as the President bc the real President is in the basement on life support
DeleteWe were looking for selling in the month of April and in fact Oil shares did have a bad month. It can get a lot worse....
ReplyDeleteSc
ReplyDeleteVIX 21 now
Can it hit 30 or will it
finally break out of the triangle and shoot for 100? Haha
VIX did see a reaction at the long term trendline and popped 15 over 20.
DeleteVIX is still filling in this triangle a while longer in my opinion. 15 to 25 is the range for now. It will whipsaw traders out and then shoot up high when ready.
ReplyDeleteI think we may see an undergrowth of the trendline also. When that happens we will have to move quickly and enter volatility positions because it won't last long and then the VIX moon shot occurs.
ReplyDelete"Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said that failure to raise the debt ceiling will cause a “steep economic downturn” in the U.S."
ReplyDeleteDebt ceiling should be raised, I don't think out politicians are that foolish, if they put it off- we will drop quickly!
ReplyDeleteI see small H&S pattern on SVIX. Completing R shoulder now.
ReplyDelete@Dunn6ster,
ReplyDeleteNormally I would agree with you but debt ceiling default and crashing economy into election year is bad for incumbent President. So D’s better suck it up and eat what McCarthy is serving up.
SPX can rally towards 4,200 May. Expect selling to 4,000 June.
ReplyDeleteDRIP ever so close. May dip once more before she goes
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletewe been stuck in the same range for more then 30 days, a lot of traders are in cash (big boys), waiting for a debt ceiling solution, I know want Spx 4200 but SPX 4150, seems to be a problem, any advice?
I know it's been pretty slow. We're in a lull at the moment. The volatility started in 2018 and ramped up. But here we are in the eye of the hurricane. It's slow under Biden. Different personality than Trump.
DeleteThe biggest action in volatility is still ahead. So we wait the VIX. Until then let's see what we can do. There's always some action somewhere. Oil as a short still is working. Soon that will be ready.
10% daily move for LABU/LABD, any idea which way to go in about two to three months?
ReplyDelete98 pt on double top breakout for Xbi
DeleteDRV target 98 on weekly triple top breakout
I like the biotech alot. Starting to firm up. It may be seasonal so expect more action approaching Fall and Winter.
DeleteThat double top breakout was sweet as it gets...90 will be sticky....then off to 102 max
DeleteSC .. do you see the VIX 182 happening this year ? 2024 or 2025?
ReplyDeletethanks
The biggest move will be after the 2024 Election I believe. Just when no one suspects. There will be pops and spikes and false starts before the big moves.
DeleteSami,
ReplyDeleteNo one knows the answer to that?
The Vix may have a move up into early June!
ReplyDeleteWell my 4,200 SPX has hit!
ReplyDeleteWhat is the next target sc ?
DeleteDown ?
SPX can still see higher but it's going to be a grind for small gains. Then it will get more interesting June to September.
DeleteWhat is the low target you.have for 2023 ?
DeleteWhat price do you think we go down to in 2023 ?
Thanks
For 2023 frankly I'm not expecting too much, but market conditions are deteriorating as we approach the 2024 election.
DeleteI'll post the SPX chart.
"Fraying U.S.-China relations and rising tensions over Taiwan have influential business leaders such as Elon Musk and Warren Buffett sounding alarms about a possible invasion – a matter that will likely loom over the 2024 election."
ReplyDeleteExactly as I've said for years
DeleteBuffet is an insider and has pulled out of Taiwan. He knows what is coming.
DeleteThis was correct. Next we will see a default scare and pop in volatility in June. Oil and SPX to drop.
ReplyDeleteSCApril 25, 2023 at 10:25 AM
"Pullback for a couple weeks here and then up into June. All part of a topping process."
What level do you expect spx to drop of to ?
ReplyDeletevery hard to predict this scenario!
ReplyDeleteThe vix have to go up 18 , it doesn't looks like
ReplyDeleteit will rise, if default scare happens, very doubtful, at this time!
ReplyDeleteDefault? Lol
ReplyDeleteLook at the weakly chart, the 50 moving average cross 200
ReplyDeleteummm did anyone take the double top breakout on XBI
ReplyDeleteI am looking at LABU/LABD. The volume makes me very confused. Very different pattern than BOIL/KOLD. Any thoughts?
DeleteGov't are looking take money away from covid and use the funds in different areas, bio-techs may not be in favor to after the debt ceiling debate becomes more clear!
ReplyDeleteDunn, Thank you for sharing your thoughts!
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteYou were looking for a double top, you will get it Tuesday, if not today!
US action on short-sellers likely in 'next few months', a DOJ official has said per Reuters.
R.i.p ocgn.... weve been holding the bag on this pos since 4 follars .... ouch
ReplyDeleteOCGN may go lower yet but still it's an aggressive stock when it moves. In May they said the pandemic was over. So what happens come flu season and Covid shows again?
DeleteToday we can see GUSH selling off again. So regardless of debt ceiling deals the weakness in oil shares is signaling a selloff coming in SPX soon. July into August selling likely
ReplyDeleteSC, don't you think NDX is going to ATH like the dax?
ReplyDeleteIt is possible with NDX. Other markets are weaker.
DeleteNdx is running being lead up by less then 10 companies, it can keep going, ride the wave to it stops, normally this never ends well, but we will not know to we get their, be nimble!
ReplyDeleteYes you write
ReplyDeleteOil down again! Very weak. GUSH is about to Crack $100 support
ReplyDeleteI think that the vote tonight will not end well, bit the debt ceiling will be raised later in the week, Nvda went to 380 today, I am waiting to see tonight's outcome, Aapl is holding us up today!
ReplyDeleteSC vix break the line, no capitulation
ReplyDeleteWe'll see the reaction to the VIX trendline soon enough
DeleteVIX being manipulated with SVIX. Not sure how VIX will reestablish to trendline without some unforeseen black swan
DeleteGUSH making a little bounce but support is going to break. Oil shares under massive pressure down.
ReplyDeleteThere's always this fascination with trying to short the strongest stock. Tech for example. As I say the best strategy is to short the weakest and Oil shares are incredibly weak.
I think you're wrong about the vix, the market is too strong
ReplyDeleteSC what is your downside target for the S&P by sept?
ReplyDeletethanks
DRIP does look to be getting ready to spike. Rising since November! I do think oil shares will drop July and August. SPX will decline significantly this summer.
DeleteLet's wait for this rally to finish then look at SPX targets
DeleteAs long as we stay above Spx 4160, we can go higher with minor pull backs, no fear yet!
ReplyDeleteSPX should grind higher for now but it looks like a nasty summer.
DeleteWill VIX hit single digits?
DeleteDoubt it would get there now
DeleteLABU looks good!
ReplyDeleteThis debt ceiling deal is the worst case scenario in many ways. The market is tired of debt and that is why inflation continues to be the problem. There is a lack of ability to balance the budget. Since they haven't addressed the problem the market will force them to address the debt in due course.
ReplyDeleteVix very low, do you really wait it up again? I am not
ReplyDeleteVIX should be ready July. We'll see.
ReplyDeleteVIX ready for what? Single digits?
Delete40
DeleteFORTY?! That’s a 200% move!
DeleteAre you sure that’s not a typo? Lol
LABU running, should be good over $8.
ReplyDeleteYes the market is likely to continue to rally higher short term. However what I anticipate is that the recession will return and the market will collapse rapidly losing all gains. VIX can spike to around 40 initially. Russia has been slowly wearing down Ukraine and as Russia scores victories in the war the markets will sink even further. VIX reaching 75 in this Cycle.
ReplyDeleteSo 40 July and 75 Sept/Oct?
DeleteFirst the market will get choppy before the larger declines. Market are rallying for short term and then choppy topping process. So it'll take time. I was thinking over several years.
Deletemarket gonnna get slammed in the face is it gonna be july lol
ReplyDeleteThe rally still had legs for a bit but yes. Once everyone believes in bull market, down she'll go
Deletewonder how high are you thinking 4500 to 4600
DeleteMarket gonna look like Biden on a bicycle! Lmao!
Deletemaybe 3700 lets evaluate
ReplyDeletewait 3 weeks, next 5 after are statistically are worst months
ReplyDeleteSC, can you give us a roadmap and targets for the next weeks in SPX and VIX ?.
ReplyDeleteOk yes will do
DeleteNew charts posted!
ReplyDelete